HORSE RACING – KENTUCKY DERBY 2025 – MY PICKS

Every year when I make my Kentucky Derby picks, I find it the most difficult race of the entire season to handicap.

Perhaps it’s due to the quirky nature of this race: Three-year old thoroughbreds matching up twenty horses across going 1.25 miles and racing in front of 150,000+ screaming fans (on sloppy tracks a high percentage of time).

No one truly knows what these very young horses will do in these conditions.  Getting a good break and having lots of luck are factors, too.

But for me, it really comes down to figuring out what the pace setup will be when guessing on which horses are most likely to prevail.

For this year’s Derby, a rather unique set of circumstances confronts us making it even more difficult to predict how the pace will unfold. 

There are a higher number of “speed horses” than usual.  At least five of our competitors have set the pace or were close on the lead in prior races.  Now it becomes a guessing game to figure out who will actually get the front and, if there is one that will push the race to super-fast fractions.

Well, to qualify, we did have another speed horse in the mix through Thursday and that was the #3 RODRIGUEZ who scratched out.  I thought he had the best chance to take this race wire to wire.  Still, that leaves us with several horses that like the lead.

Before Rodriguez scratched, the consensus amongst most pro handicappers is that the pace would be very fast this year due to what I described above- dueling pace setters hell-bent on having/needing the lead.  But, now with him out, it does open the door for others to try and wire the field.

For example – If the #1 CITIZEN BULL morphs back into who he was as a 2-yr old, or the #12 EAST AVENUE fulfills the potential so many have seen in him, or if #5 AMERICAN PROMISE can put it all together in that big body of his and channel his dad (JUSTIFY, 2018 Triple Crown Winner), or if the #2 NEOEQUOS miraculously outruns his distance-challenged pedigree or if #20 OWEN ALMIGHTY doesn’t hit empty down the stretch like he did in the Blue Grass, then we will see only the third Derby pacesetter go on to win the Run for the Roses since 2009.

All that said, I don’t have confidence in any of those horses.  And while we do have a higher chance than usual that a lead horse will wire the field, I’m not sure any of those horses will be the one to do it.  

Instead, I think we have a good number of high quality “tactical” horses in the race this year that like to sit mid-pack and could prevail, no matter the pace.  And so, these are the types of horses I will mostly side with in 2025.

Like MAGE did in 2023, he sat mid-pack, came fast down the stretch and outdueled TWO PHILS for the win.  The pace was fast, but Mage had the ability to stay with it and find a late kick for the win, which is the key, I think for this year’s winner.

Another year like that was 2012 when I’LL HAVE ANOTHER stalked a very fast pace, fought with BODEMEISTER (the pacesetter) down the stretch and ultimately chased him down.  Again, this horse took on the pace from the middle of the pack and overcame the leader by using his late accelerator.

A few strong tactical candidates that could fulfill this prophecy in 2025 include:

The favorite (#8 JOURNALISM) – he seems to stand above the rest of the contenders – he has everything we look for in a strong Derby contender: Speed, versatility, proven ability to overcome adversity, he’s been training well, progressing forward, has a desire to win and has shown he likes to come from the middle of pack and win.  He does come with slight reservations for me which includes a more inside post than I would have liked for a big horse that needs space to get into his gears.  His jock has also had trouble navigating small fields before.  But if he lives up to his billing and his jock does right by him, he should find a way to get through the traffic and come screaming down the final stretch no matter the pace.  

If he gets jammed up, I like the alternate #21 BAEZA who got into the field due to the scratch on Thursday.  This colt’s breeding is topnotch- He’s half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner MAGE and DORNOCH (last year’s Belmont Stakes winner).  This is a legit competitor who has displayed fast speeds and competed in CA against Baffert’s colts and Journalism. And, he has the same racing style as Journalism.

With some reservations, I’ll also include #7 LUXOR CAFÉ who has many of the same qualities as the other mid-packers I picked to win.  This son of AMERICAN PHAROAH (2015 Triple Crown winner) has looked sensational racing in Japan, winning 4 of his last 4 starts.  His final fractions have also been super-fast.  But I do worry about the toll international travel may take on him and he’s never raced outside of Japan before.  Of course, if those factors are not impactful to him, he could become the first Japanese-trained horse to win the Derby. 

And there’s the #19 CHUNK OF GOLD.  This late-developing colt hasn’t won a graded stakes race yet, but all signs point to him taking a big step forward and competing well in this race.  He’s overcome adversity in races before, tries hard and who doesn’t love the fact that he was purchased for just $2,500 as a yearling? The question becomes: can he overcome that far outside post and make it work for him?  If so, he could be in the mix on Derby Day.

I also like #16 COAL BATTLE.  His is a Cinderella story, having been purchased at a TX yearling sale and training for a lovely 72-year-old man who never had a quality horse like this before.  And while this story is nice, you have to like what this horse has accomplished so far and how he’s done it.  He’s won 4 of his last 5, started on 6 different tracks, can run from anywhere in the pack and works hard every time.  His speeds are not as fast we like to see at this stage, but he has won on 2 wet tracks before, and his heart is as big as the state of Texas.

To round out my picks I like a couple closers, including the #9 BURNHAM SQUARE to hit the board somewhere towards the top.  His trainer said recently that this colt “doesn’t get tired” and has “lots of stamina”, both major pluses.  He’s also convinced that this horse is going to take another huge step forward in the Derby.  I also like that this horse has overcome adversity in races before.  As a grinding kind of horse, I expect they’ll have him sit more forward in this race than far in the back.  The big knock on this one is that he’s a gelding and only 2 geldings have won the Derby in 95 years.  But hey, let’s give geldings a little love too, right?

And then there’s the well thought of #18 SOVEREIGNTY, a deep closer who has good speed figures and has won on the Churchill Downs main track.  But I worry he needs the pace to meltdown up front to the point where no one else is left to pick up the pieces.  As I indicated before, I think there are several strong mid-pack candidates or forwardly placed horses that are strong enough to win over a closer.  Could be in the mix, though if he doesn’t stay too far off the pace.  Overall, he’s a nice horse who many have confidence in especially with a change back to jockey JUNIOR ALVARADO who has raced five other times in the Derby.

Finally, the #5 AMERICAN PROMISE sticks out to me. And how can he not?  This son of JUSTIFY (who won the Triple Crown in 2018) is huge compared to the rest of the field.  But more than that, he seems to be coming into his own right now having taken a long time to grow into his big frame (he was also a May foal) & mature mentally.  I also like that he’s had a nice long rest which should make him fresh for this race, he’s run at Churchill Downs three times and won on a deep muddy track before.

One last note: There are rumors on Twitter/X that more scratches may be coming today.  I’ll update only if impactful to the pace of the race.  

Well, that’s my top picks for the 151st Kentucky Derby. 

Best of luck to all horses involved.  Enjoy the race!

POST TIME: The official Kentucky Derby post time is 7:02 p.m., Saturday, May 3. It will be broadcast on TV via USA and Peacock from noon to 2:20 p.m. and on NBC and Peacock from 2:30-7:30 p.m.