HORSE RACING – A FIRST GLANCE AT THE POTENTIAL 2018 KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
With about six weeks left until the 2018 Kentucky Derby, it’s time we get acquainted with the potential field of competitors who could take home the gold trophy the first Saturday in May.
As you may know, each of the twenty horses that compete in The Run for the Roses must first earn points in a series of 40+ races held around the US and the world to qualify for a spot in the starting gate. (Two spots are reserved for each a Japanese and a European horse who qualify).
Known as the “Road to the Kentucky Derby”, this points system is divided into two stages, the Prep Season (typically Sept-Feb) and the Championship Series (which we are now in). Each race at this latter stage will award bigger points so, if a horse has not yet qualified, winning one of the remaining 10 races could get them into the big show.
For purposes of this article, I’ll take a look at some of the most interesting horses to qualify so far and who have looked more impressive recently. I’ll revisit this list before the Derby as the picture becomes more clear heading toward May 5.
THE TWO FAVORITES
There are currently TWO favorites to win the Kentucky Derby at this point in the season: BOLT d’ORO and McKINZIE. In most experts opinions, they sit above the rest of the competition right now.
Each have exhibited the all-important Derby contending qualities early in their racing careers so far:
- Versatile racing styles (can be stalkers and also, have accelerators to make up lost ground if needed);
- Ability to fight & come back from adversity (important in a 20-horse field);
- Excellent Speed;
- Breeding for distance and stamina; and
- Pedigrees for success.
Interestingly, these two have a burgeoning rivalry, particularly after what occurred at the San Felipe Stakes earlier this month. If you have not yet watched the race, I encourage you to see it.
After blowing by the other competition down the stretch, Bolt and McKinzie went neck and neck towards the finish line. At first, it seemed as if McKinzie won in the photo finish, but it was later determined that due to “illegal contact” between the horses, he was disqualified and Bolt was deemed the winner.
A bit of concern for some about Bolt d’Oro is his 3rd place finish at the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. But, what I saw about the loss told me a great deal about his courage and determination. Out of the starting gate, he had a bad break and wound up 12 of 13. He was also carried out very wide at both turns, and yet despite all that, battled back to come in third place. The bad run may have been signs of an inexperienced trainer (Mike Ruis) Yet, it also proved that this horse could be a battler, perfect for competing against 19 other competitors at Churchill Downs.
Ruis’ story is an interesting one in that he has lived a magical rags-to-riches life – grew up poor, never graduated from high school, became a jockey, and left the sport only to come back after he made his fortune and returned to his passion (training horses). However, he’s never had a racehorse the quality of Bolt d’Oro. The question is: Will Ruis be able to bring the full potential out this colt in time for the Derby?
So far, Ruis has showed he is up for the challenge. After a 4-month layover to nurse a muscle strain, Bolt looked terrific in the San Felipe Stakes this March and came out of it extremely well.
For McKinzie, he is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert who has said this colt has “raw talent” and the results to prove it. Also, this colt’s pedigree for the Derby is outstanding. His sire is Street Sense who won the 2007 Kentucky Derby and was runner up at the 2007 Preakness by a nose.
Bolt d’Oro’s sire is Medaglia d’Oro who also has notable progenies like 2009 American Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and the two-time Eclipse Award Winner Songbird, among others.
It is rumored that these 2 horses may go head to head once more before the Kentucky Derby at the Santa Anita Derby on April 7. Personally, I would love to see that and it may give a clearer picture of which is the better race horse. Stay tuned.
OTHER STANDOUTS
GOOD MAGIC –
Trained by Chad C. Brown, this is a Curlin colt who is 1-4, but his big win at the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile makes him a real contender. Stalking the pace, he took charge down the stretch and won by 4.5 lengths, impressive by any standards. However, he fell below expectations following that race at the Fountain of Youth in March where he came in third with a perfect break and trip. The question here is what to make of that performance and will he improve? Curlin offspring have a tendency to mature slowly, so that’s something. Still, the jury is out for me on this one. I’ll have to see what he does on April 7 when he races in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland for a final determination before the Derby.
MAGNUM MOON –
This Todd Pletcher trained colt has been lightly raced to this point, but is currently 3-0 and has impressed so much with his Rebel Stakes win earlier this month, he has vaulted up many experts top 10 lists. His breeding is solid, as Magnum’s sire is Malibu Moon who also sired Orb, winner of the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Magnum’s stalking style is also desirable for the Derby, but a negative could be the fact that he did not race as a 2-year old. Known as “Apollo’s Curse”, no horse in 130 years has went on to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year old. Could Magnum Moon be the one to finally break the curse?
JUSTIFY –
Another Baffert horse some consider the 2nd best 3-year old in his barn at the moment. But, there’s not a lot to go on here. He is a late March foal who has just two races (2-0) under his belt, each were about 1 mile, and he did not face the best competition. Still, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has said that this red colt galloped naturally and eagerly in his latest win and “he could have galloped another quarter-mile if he had to.” Justify also earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in both his starts, including a 104 Beyer Speed Figure during his 7-furlong romp in February. The colt goes next to the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 14. We will all be watching him closely at this one. If he excels again, he will likely be a solid third place contender to Bolt & McKinzie, IMHO. Oh, but, there’s that Apollo’s Curse thing again with this horse…
AUDIBLE –
This is another Todd Pletcher trained Colt bred out of NY. He is 3-1 and has looked really impressive in his last two races, particularly the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes in February when he blew away other graded stakes winning competition by five lengths and had a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. His breeding does not particularly suggest significant stamina, but there is some distance there with Gulch who competed in Triple Crown races and came in third at the Belmont Stakes. Still a lot of information needs to be gained by watching him in the Florida Derby on March 31 which he is pointed towards next.
SOLOMINI –
And then there were three Baffert Derby contenders… This one is owned by Zayat Stables (ala American Pharoah fame) and is another son of Curlin. This chestnut colt has had plenty of experience having raced 5 times with a record 1-5 and 3 second place finishes including the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Word is that he works very hard and he has shown to bounce back during awkward runs when he was asked to go. But, Baffert said he can be “lazy” and a bit “difficult” to train. Luckily, he’s always “shown up” during races, enough to place well in finishes. This enigmatic personality has me on the fence about his chances of getting in the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs. Still, there’s enough to like here to suggest he will show up for the big Triple Crown races and could improve in the future. He’s being pointed next towards the Wood Memorial on April 7.
BRAVAZO –
D. Wayne Lukas, the 82-year old four-time winning Kentucky Derby trainer, has the reigns with this colt whose career stats are 3-7 with the most recent win the (G2) Risen Star in Feb. Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, who rode Bravazo in the Risen Star said that the colt reminds him of Thunder Gulch, the horse he won the Kentucky Derby on. He also likes that the horse has determination and no “quit in him”. Stevens also thinks Bravazo has the ability to go the distance of the Triple Crown races like Thunder Gulch. Overall, this solid horse has performed well in graded stakes races and has experience at Churchill Downs (3 races) and has “good tactical speed” according to Lukas.
PROMISES FULFILLED –
Trainer Dale L. Romans is in charge of this son of Shackleford who Romans also trained to win the 2011 Preakness Stakes & placed fourth in the 2011 Kentucky Derby. This colt is 3-1 coming off a recent win at the Fountain of Youth earlier this month from an outside post and led wire to wire. Romans has said that he has the same “style, speed, and stamina” as his father and while he was slow to develop, is blossoming just like Shackleford did, who was a big horse. This is an interesting one to keep an eye on, and I’ll look to see what he does at the Florida Derby at Gulfstream on March 31.
ENTICED –
This dark bay colt trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for Godolphin is known to be a big horse with nice pedigree (Sire – Medaglia d’Oro; Dam – It’s Tricky (Mineshaft; Secretariat bloodlines). So far, he has a 3-5 record and showed potential at a 1 1/16 mile with a first-place win at the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in Nov. But, a distant fourth place finish in Feb at the Holy Bull Stakes opened this colt up for more questions than answers at this stage in the game. His connections likely hope that he steps up and progresses. But, we won’t really know that until he races next at the Wood Memorial on April 7.
CATHOLIC BOY –
Another intriguing prospect, this colt is trained by the Florida based Jonathan Thomas (a former assistant to Todd Pletcher) and has a 3-5 record overall. His most impressive win so far came at the Feb (G3) Sam Davis Stakes in Tampa Bay with a 100 Equibase Speed Figure, but three of his first races came on turf and the last two on dirt. This “multi-talented” horse seems to be getting stronger and was a notable “above-average” looking youngster. His racing style is considered versatile in that he has raced mostly as a closer, but has enough speed to keep him more towards the middle of the pack if asked. And, he has also shown to train well and handle adversity during races like a pro. His pedigree suggests he can handle the mile and a quarter, but perhaps not much more than that. Up next for him is the Florida Derby on March 31.
QUIP –
After finishing seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in Nov and having a layoff of about four months, it was quite the surprise when this Rodolphe Brissett trained bay colt won the Tampa Bay Derby earlier in the month at odds of 19-1. But, with that kind of leap in progress from 2-3 years old, it proves the maturity of this talented colt and worthy of keeping an eye on. Jockey Florent Geroux has said he is keen on this horse and chocks the poor performance at the Kentucky Jockey Club up to a bad trip and a learning experience. It doesn’t seem as Brissett has decided on the next race for Quip yet, but word is that he is considering either the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes on April 7. One last note: Buzz about the young trainer and former jockey (Brissett) is that he is highly respected in the industry & has a bright future ahead of him. Would be a major coup for him if Quip placed in the Derby or other Triple Crown races.
FLAMEAWAY –
This Ontario-bred colt trained by Canadian Hall of Famer Mark Casse currently sits at #10 on Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. A win at the (G3) Sam Davis Stakes in Feb and a second-place finish at the Tampa Bay Derby in March definitely makes this horse one to watch on the Derby trail. His racing history is also fascinating. At 5-8 overall, 2 of his races were on turf and 1 on synthetic. He’s also been tried at every different running style (has led, pressed the pace, stalked and closed). So, it is clear that there has been indecision about what is best for this horse. Looking at his versatile pedigree where stamina, speed and success on different surfaces exist, Casse definitely has several options ahead of him for this colt. Regardless, Flameaway is known to be a “fighter”, maybe his strongest asset. We’ll see how much he fights when he faces stiff competition like Quip and Good Magic, plus a farther distance on dirt (1 1/8 m), at the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4.
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