HORSE RACING – PEGASUS WORLD CUP 2025

We have a very interesting lineup of horses today for the annual Pegasus World Cup Invitational.  Several of the twelve entrants are accomplished racehorses including a Breeders’ Cup Classic and Kentucky Derby winner.  And seven have earned at least $1 million in their racing careers.  There are also a few who may not have the big resume but may have untapped potential.  

The job then for this race (which appears to be wide open) is to sift through the diverse pack and try to figure out who will prevail.   A further challenge is there doesn’t appear to be a single contender who has the consistency and momentum with a good post that I look for in a pick to win.  That’s not necessarily a bad thing for an amateur handicapper.  It presents a fun test for me.  

But before going into details about the field and my picks, a bit of background on the race: 

Open to older dirt horses (four-year-olds and up) by invite-only, the Pegasus World Cup takes place at Gulfstream Park in South Florida at a distance of 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs).  Prior to 2017, the event was called the Donn Handicap.  Purse is $3 million.  Post time is 5:40pm ET and will be available to watch in the US on NBC and Peacock.  Coverage starts at 4:30pm ET.

The race also tends to favor horses more forwardly placed, or more specifically, those that like the lead.  Ray Paulick tweeted this week: “Every Pegasus winner since the first running in 2017 led at the top of the stretch. When the race was known as the Donn, the last winner to pass a horse in the stretch was Hymn Book in 2012. Challenging for closers to win at the distance at Gulfstream.”

A helpful tidbit there.  We at least know that closers will have a harder time getting across the finish line first.  Not that the fact is set in stone, but we like trends in this game…

THE FIELD:

1 – MIXTO.  A 5-year-old stalker being ridden by the renowned jockey Frankie Dettori for the first time.  His last race was a G3 third place finish in Nov 2024.  I see some expert handicappers like this one for a longshot.  I’m not including him today, but Dettori may be able to squeeze him into the trifecta by running on the rail next to the probable pacesetter Saudi Crown.

2- SAUDI CROWN.  This horse will likely take the lead.  A lot to like here as we know horses in the front of this race tend to do well.  He’s also close to the rail and will take the easiest way around.  Not too many other speed horses in this too, so he could set his own pace & go wire to wire. We also like the Brad Cox, Florent Geroux connection.  I don’t personally like that he hasn’t raced this distance since a year ago and won last against inferior competition.  Not my pick, but top 3.

3- NEWGRANGE.  A horse that likes to press the pace which is an advantage.  He also has a new trainer and hasn’t run since July.  I feel his best form may have been about a year ago, but with a new trainer and new tactics, he could surprise? Longshot contender.

4 – WHITE ABARRIO.  This is one of my favorites to win the race.  I really like that he has a stalking style, has one of the best jockeys in North America on him (Irad Ortiz Jr.), he lives at the racetrack and is doing well now.  He’ll likely enjoy the short run to the first of the two turns at this post.

5 – CRUPI.  This is a one-dimensional closer so I have removed this one from consideration.  But, he will be ridden by Saez and Todd Pletcher is the trainer so we do have to give him some respect.  

6 – STRONGHOLD.  I have liked this horse since he ran in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.  So much potential here, I feel he could be sitting on a big race.  Yes, he hasn’t won since April last year but he is coming off a runner-up effort in Dec.  I am going to give him a chance to surprise us from a stalking position if the leader fades in the stretch.

7 – STEAL SUNSHINE.  From what I’ve read about this horse, he’s a closer who never won a two-turn race but he does like this racetrack.  Considered a solid veteran campaigner, but I’m not including him.

8 – VITALITY.  SCRATCHED

9 – MYSTIK DAN.  Who could forget the beautiful Kentucky Derby win he gave us last year… While he did not have many supporters then and still now, his trainer Kenny McPeek still believes in him and so I am keeping him in my long shot list.  I don’t like that he is winless in the last 3 starts, but it’s good to see him out there and we hope he bounces back well to start his 4-year old campaign.  

10 – SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING.  I am a fan of this horse and am keeping him in my list of contenders.  I don’t love the outside post but like his running style.  He has also run well at this track.  But we need to acknowledge that a Grade 1 is probably out of his wheelhouse.  He also ran seventh in 2023 Pegasus.  

11 – LOCKED.  There is so much buzz about this horse that he needs to be considered as a contender.  He is backed by Todd Pletcher, has the stalking style we like and as a son of the great Gunrunner, he apparently has untapped potential.  The big HOWEVER is that this post sucks for him.  After being away from racing for nearly a year, we don’t know how he will do, let alone figure out a way to win from the far outside.

12.  POWER SQUEEZE.  The lone filly in the race has a lot of good buzz surrounding her.  I just don’t see her starting her 4-year-old campaign beating the boys.  And her closing style won’t help matters.  I’m not including her but would enjoy her finishing well.  It’s always fun when a girl beats the guys. 

MY PICKS:

My top three picks include Stronghold, Saudi Crown and White Abarrio.  If Saudi Crown is loose on the lead and takes charge of this race, he will likely dictate the outcome.  But if Newgrange and/or Skippylongstocking press him too much, this race might end differently.

Other contenders I like are Skippylongstocking and Locked.  I can’t really pick Locked to win outright based on such little data.  But I am a huge fangirl of Gunrunner (as many of you know), so I would love to see another of his kids prevailing as a 4-year-old.  Gunrunner famously did his best racing as an older horse, so that might bode well for Locked.

To round out my picks, I’m including Newgrange and Mystik Dan for the reasons I state above.  I’m hoping Mystik Dan really does make a good showing as this 4-year-old crop of horses racing this year is going to be epic.  We’ll be seeing Sierre Leone, Thorpedo Anna, Fierceness and Forever Young around the circuits.  It would be fun if Mystik Dan can get back to the winner’s circle to add to the competition. 

Good luck to all and safe rides today.

UPDATE (JAN 26, 2025): WHITE ABARRIO ran away with the race around the stretch and won by 6.25 lengths. LOCKED came in second followed by SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING in third.

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