NFL – 2024 POSTSEASON CONFERENCE CHAMPS – STATS THAT STICK OUT

PASSING – (JAYDEN DANIELS QB, COMMANDERS) WSH 23 at PHI 55

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels did all he could to help Washington fend off Philadelphia in the NFC Conference Championship game when he completed 29 of 48 passes for 255 yards, threw 1 TD and led 5 total scoring drives.  The frontrunner for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award also rushed for 48 yards on 6 attempts and scored a rushing TD.  But credit the Eagle’s defense for limiting the young QB’s performance in the game.  Compared to the rest of his first season in the NFL, the 24-year-old had the fifth-lowest completion percentage (60.4%) and the third lowest passer rating (72.8) in the NFC Championship game.  Philadelphia also forced 4 Washington turnovers, all of which went on to become Eagles TDs. Meanwhile, Washington’s defense could not contain Eagles RB Saquon Barkley.  In the end, Philadelphia left the stadium as the 2024 NFC Champion and punched their ticket to the franchise’s sixth Super Bowl appearance… For the Commanders, not going on to Super Bowl 59 may be disappointing, but it should not take away from the amazing resurgence the team experienced with Jayden Daniels at the helm in 2024.  Instead, the team and its fanbase should be hopeful and excited that the future is in such good hands. Daniels’ performance this season is statistically the best rookie QB season in NFL history (acc to Pro Football Reference).  He broke the NFL’s rookie QB records for completion percentage (69%) and rushing yards (891) (without losing a fumble) while helping Washington finish the season with a 12-5 record and clinch a playoff berth with 25 passing TDs, 6 rushing TDs and only 9 interceptions.  In the postseason, Daniels not only broke the record previously held by Andrew Luck for the most offensive yards by a rookie in NFL history, (including the playoffs), but he also had the most passing yards (822), QB rushing yards (135), completions (75), completion percentage in 25+ attempts (69.7%) and highest passer rating in 25+ attempts (116.2) for a rookie QB in league history.  Going forward, it’s scary to think that the Commanders have the third highest cap space in the league in 2025 (and the highest in the NFC).  That much salary flexibility should help the team achieve big moves in free agency and improve their roster even more.  

RUSHING – (SAQUON BARKLEY RB, EAGLES) WSH 23 at PHI 55

The player I discussed the most on this blog during the 2024 NFL season was Eagles RB Saquon Barkley.  He became the league’s rushing leader many times this season (Wks 7, 9, 11, 12, 17, Div Playoff Rd) and was named NFC Player of the Week four times.  He also finished the regular season with the most rushing yards in the NFL (2005), most yards per game (125.3), most scrimmage touches (378) and most scrimmage yards (2283).  In the playoffs leading up to the NFC Championship game, the six-year bell cow continued his dominance on the ground racking up 205 rushing yards on 26 attempts in the NFC Divisional Playoffs alone, his second-best effort all season long.  Not that Washington needed any other signs that this guy was dangerous, but they had little answer for his immense talents in the NFC Championship Game, as Barkley carried the ball 15 times for 118 yards and scored 3 rushing TDs.  He is now 169 yards away from breaking the all-time rushing yards record in the postseason of 610 held by John Riggins since 1982.  Getting 169 rushing yards is doable in the upcoming Super Bowl but won’t be easy.  Barkley will face a Chiefs defense that has been stingy in the playoffs against the run since Steve Spagnuolo took over as KC’s defensive coordinator six years ago.  While Kansas City finished the regular season ranked eighth against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry and 101.8 yards per game, the Chiefs haven’t allowed a RB to rush for more than 89 yards in the playoffs since 2019.  Source: NFL Network… One of the big reasons for Barkley’s superiority on the ground this season has to do with “explosive runs”.  According to Nittany Lionswire, he has 7 runs of 60+ this season, the most in one season in NFL history…  The main focus of Kansas City’s defense will likely to be the containment of Barkley and his ability to net chunks of yardage whether on the ground or in the air… For Barkley, going to the Super Bowl fulfills a childhood dream.  He told Eagles GM Howie Roseman in one of their first conversations that was his main goal and the reason he agreed to go to Philadelphia. After Sunday’s game he was overjoyed about the opportunity to finally get to the big show.  He said, “I ain’t gonna lie, I tried to downplay it in my head… But it’s just amazing, man. It’s amazing. We’re here. The Super Bowl.  But the goal wasn’t just getting there. The goal is to win. And we’re going to celebrate and enjoy this and get right back to work.”  

RECEIVING – (ZACH ERTZ TE, COMMANDERS) WSH 23 at PHI 55

In February 2024, within hours of announcing that Dan Quinn would be the team’s new head coach, the Washington Commanders also revealed they hired Joe Whitt Jr. as their new defensive coordinator and Kliff Kingsbury as their new offensive coordinator. The new owners/management of the formerly embattled franchise were literally letting the world know that they were starting off fresh by creating a new era for their team.  The vision for this new era would begin with Quinn who said he wanted his new team to embody the principles of being “explosive and physical… The explosive comes offensively and on the return game from big plays, through the run game, through play action, through the passing game, ones that can change fields position… And those are the explosive plays that you have to keep going and being aggressive to go.” Quinn also hoped, “teams that have to play against us are like, ‘Damn, this is gonna be hard today.”  Quinn was largely successful in fulfilling that initial mission in his first year with the team, particularly on the offensive side of the football.  While the defense played better in the latter half of the season and the pass rush eventually morphed into one of the best units in the league, it was up and down most of the year.  However, the Commanders’ offense was consistently strong throughout the season.  The dynamic rookie QB Jayden Daniels excelled in the system Kingsbury built around him along with the new pass-heavy schemes he introduced.  The offensive line also did a decent job of protecting Daniels and creating run lanes.  And Daniels clicked well with veteran pass catchers like WR Terry McLaurin (his favorite pass target) and TE Zach Ertz (his second favorite passing target). Both players developed a chemistry with Daniels on/off field and created leadership roles within the locker room.  Plus, working with Daniels in the Kingsbury-led offense helped revive each player’s careers as well.  McLaurin had spent the prior 5 years of his career in Washington amongst a spinning carousel of QBs.  But, in 2024 working with Daniels, he had his best career year and set multiple records like the franchise record of 13 TD receptions in a single season; he became the first Washington player to have 4 consecutive 1,000+ yard seasons; and he became the only player in franchise history to complete 75+ receptions, 1,000+ receiving yards and 10+ TDs in a single season…  For Ertz, he had been experiencing a downward trajectory in his 11-year career before arriving with the Commanders.  He signed a one-year deal with Washington in March 2024, a month before the NFL Draft.  At the time, Ertz was a free agent and had several teams interested in him, but he “jumped at the opportunity” to sign with Washington largely due to being reunited with Kingsbury whom he had worked with in 21 games during his three-year stint with Arizona.  “In my opinion, he’s one of the best offensive minds that I’ve been around,” Ertz said at his signing.  “He’s gonna do everything he can to put his guys in positions to be successful and get them the ball… He’s very adaptive in that regard, if something is not working or something needs to be changed, he’s the first to make that change.”  Little did Ertz know at that time who would be throwing him the football… He also did not likely foresee how much of an impact he would make on the team or know how far Washington would go into the playoffs, let alone become the receiving leader in the NFC Conf Championship game and lead all Washington pass catchers in the postseason in receptions… And now that the season is over along with his one-year deal, Ertz has made it clear that he wants to return to play and continue with the Commanders.  He said on Sunday, “I’m not retiring just because I had so much fun this year. I feel rejuvenated. I feel young. I played good football this year, so for me it’s figuring out everything going forward, and they know how I feel about this place.”  The good news for Ertz is that even if Washington doesn’t bring him back, he’ll find a place with another team that needs a good, solid veteran TE who can still bring it each and every game. 

DEFENSE – (CHRIS JONES DT, CHIEFS) BUF 29 at KC 32

It’s interesting to note that not one Chief finished as a league-wide “weekly leader” this season and only 2 Chiefs became AFC Player of the Week the entire year.  The team’s offense also finished the regular season middle of the road or below in most every statistical category and KC’s Special Teams struggled to find healthy kickers and consistency all season long.  But the Chiefs’ defense finished top 10 in most categories and were especially good at holding opponents to less than 20 points per game on average.  The team also limited turnovers when it counted most.  Fact is, KC didn’t need a lot of explosive plays or flashy stats to win football games in 2024.  The team relied heavily on their defense to keep games close enough for their exceptional QB, charismatic TE and elite coaching staff to help them edge out most competitors in tight games. This is much of the M.O. the Chiefs used to defeat the Bills in the AFC Conference Championship game.  Especially effective for KC was elite defensive line play including a standout performance by nine-year veteran (all with KC) DT Chris Jones.  PFF gave him a 90.6 grade for 2 QB hits and 6 hurries on 37 pass rushing snaps in the game that propelled KC to their fifth Super Bowl in six years.  They also saidJones “has been the highest-graded pass-rushing defensive lineman this postseason (90.7) – and the only interior defender with a PFF pass-rush grade above 90.0.”  After the Conference Champ game, Jones became very emotional and was seen crying on the sidelines and hugging teammates.  He told ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt, “I think tonight was one of the biggest games I ever played… And the opportunity to go back three times to the Super Bowl…Just the magnitude of that, you can’t really take it in until the game is over. You’ve got so many emotions running through.” Well, there may be more tears shed by Jones on Feb 9 when the Chiefs take on the Eagles in Super Bowl 59.  PFF prophesized in a recent article that as “one of the best and most versatile defensive lineman in the league”, Jones could be a main factor in the game if he manages to penetrate the Eagles’ offensive line, considered the best in the NFL.  

SUPER BOWL 59 – LIKELY TO BE A DEFENSIVE BATTLE?

The latest odds according to SportsLine for Super Bowl 59 lists Kansas City as a 1.5-point favorite, while the over/under – 49.5 points. And the modeler is leaning a little “under” at this point.

Sportsline’s AI technology basically surmises that because the Chiefs and Eagles each have top 5 scoring defenses (PHL gave up the least PPG this year- 17.9; KC gave up the fourth least – 19.4) and each team has dynamic defensive difference-makers, the “expectation” is for a game won/lost “in the trenches”.   

This is similar thinking to what PFF laid out in their article about Chris Jones, as described above.  

But will this scenario really play out?  If not, the following questions will need to be answered for each team:

For KC: How can they limit the impact of RB Saquon Barkley; how many times will they blitzQB Jalen Hurts to throw him off tempo; and how will they keep WR A.J. Brown from doing damage down the field?

For PHL: How can they stop Patrick Mahomes from scrambling out of the pocket when he did it more in the post season than we saw him do in the reg season; and how will they stop both the Chiefs’ rookie WR Xavier Worthy (a shiny new speedy weapon for Mahomes) and of course, his favorite target, TE Travis Kelce?

In the end, Super Bowl 59 may come down to a handful of plays if both teams do, in fact, become entangled in a defensive battle.  What could influence the game then? For one, SPECIAL TEAMS.  

The Chiefs boast a hot kick returner in the post season- WR Nickko Remigio.  He filled in for another injured returner and has made key plays in each post season game including a 63-yard kick return in the Divisional Playoff game and a 41-yard punt return in the AFC Championship game.   

Eagles’ kicker Jake Elliott has also experienced a serious downturn in 2024 making only 79% of his field goals and 93% of extra points.  In a very tight game between two teams with locked horns, even just 1 missed point could cost Philadelphia.  

The same could be said for the Chiefs who have struggled to find consistency at the kicker position this season.  Their usual clutch kicker Harrison Butker had midseason minor surgery on the knee of his plant leg but since then has not been the same solid mainstay.  Chiefs ST coordinator Dave Toub did say on Wednesday Butker has “looked good most recently.” Yet, this still must be a concern for KC.  

The second factor that could influence Super 59 in the event of a defensive battle: LUCK.  

It is well-known by now that the Chiefs seem to have the luck of the Irish this season, having won several close games by a toe, a call in their favor (or two, or three), and even a doink.  And there is this dastardly thing called the coin toss in football that I hate – if KC wins it in the event of a game-ending tie, that’s all they might need to get their three-peat…

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