HORSE RACING – 2024 BREEDER’S CUP CLASSIC

RACE PROFILE:  LONGINES BREEDER’S CUP CLASSIC

DISTANCE: 1.25 miles on DIRT

FIELD:  Full (14)

GRADE: 1 

AGE: 3+ Thoroughbreds

PURSE: $7 million US

LOCATION: Del Mar, CA

POST TIME: NOV 2, 20204, 5:41pm ET

TV: NBC (Coverage starts at 3:30-6:00pm)

Like a detective, I start out handicapping a horse race using a process of elimination. 

Once I identify each horse’s past performances, determine who is on the rise, check out their speed figures and their connections and listen to the buzz surrounding them, I try to rule out which ones will likely not cross the finish line first compared to the competition.  

But, using this process for the 2024 Breeder’s Cup Classic was very difficult for me.  I found the group of contenders so immensely talented and accomplished, I had a hard time eliminating choices from my winners’ pile.  (Eleven have Grade 1 or Group 1 stakes wins in their careers.)

In fact, I only removed 3 from my first cut leaving me 11 that I consider in the running for a top 3 finish.  I eventually came down to 6 serious winners I think of as my “top tier”.  

Other than handicapping a past Kentucky Derby, I can’t remember such a high level of competition in a race before…

FOLKS:  This year’s Breeder’s Cup Classic is going to be a blockbuster, must-see fun international showdown of the some of the best horses in the world.  If you like watching Triple Crown races, this will rival them in excitement.

MY FAVORITES

First thing to point out in this race is the 2024 Kentucky Derby rematch of the third place finishing Japanese horse FOREVER YOUNG and the second place SIERRA LEONE.  Who can forget the crazy photo finish between those two at Churchill Downs and Mystic Dan, who ultimately won by a nose?  Since the Derby, Forever Young went back to Japan and after a 5-month layoff won the Japan Dirt Classic in early October (at 1.25miles).  Also encouragingly, his trainer Yoshito Yahagi said this week, “He is in much better form compared to how he was back in May. He is a different horse, I would say.”  His jockey Yuki Araki baked this up saying he could tell the horse has matured since the spring and “grown up way better”.  Wow, for a horse that is 6-7 with his only loss coming at the KD by a nose, it’s incredible to hear he’s changed for the better and only gotten better.  I really like the sound of this, and so, FOREVER YOUNG is my favorite to win this race.

As for SIERRA LEONE, he raced three times since the Derby but he came in third, second and third and has had a two-month layoff since August.  Having never finished a race worse than third or regressed in any way, we must be encouraged that this horse continues to be amongst the best competition.  So, I will keep him in mind for a top 3 finish.  This is one exciting Gun Runner kid that I have an affinity with, and I think he will do well especially considering that he races best in fields of 10+ contenders.  

Next, we will see the return of the 2023 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Winner FIERCENESS, the often very brilliant but sometimes tumultuous American three-year old colt.  After being favored in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, he finished fifteenth then when on to back-to-back victories at the Jim Dandy in July and Travers Stakes in August (rated one of the fastest races of the year).  Todd Pletcher said of his wunderkind this week, “It’s hard to imagine him training any better than he did from the Jim Dandy to the Travers, but I would say he has been every bit as good, if not better… It seems like he’s put on some weight and filled out a bit since the Travers as well – you always love to see that with a 3-year-old in the fall.”  Pletcher also indicated that the horse should like the Del Mar racetrack which tends to favor speed horses like Fierceness. And with the No. 9 post for the colt, it seems the conditions are setting up very well for him to have another big victory and possibly win the Eclipse Three-year-old Colt of the Year award.  But as always with Fierceness, questions will be: Can he settle in nicely and continue his success of 2 wins in a row with a third?  Can he handle the traffic at this distance?  How would he handle a rainy conditions/track? It’ll be another huge test for him, for sure.   But, if he does bomb out in this one, it’ll be awfully hard to trust in him during his 4-year-old campaign.

Then we have the morning-line favorite and very exciting prospect from top international trainer Aiden O’Brien, CITY OF TROY.  The three-year old colt is 6-7 lifetime wins/starts, all in England/Ireland and on the turf.  This will be the horse’s first time on dirt, but he was named the morning-line favorite over all other contenders (5-2) because he is the highest-rated turf horse in the world and his sire was Justify, the brilliant winner of the thirteenth American Triple Crown in 2018.  Also, on his back will be #1 highest ranked jockey in the world, Ryan Moore.  So, while this colt will be racing in North America on dirt for the first time, he’s been sensational this year, and his connections are top-notch.  My only hesitation with this one is that he seems to favor his dam-sire Galileo’s profile (another brilliant European winner trained by O’Brien).  When Galileo was brought to America and attempted to race the 2001 BCC having never been on dirt before, he failed to fire and came in sixth.  Thus, it makes me wonder, will City of Troy follow Justify’s bloodlines and have an affinity for the dirt or Galileo’s who did not seem to like the surface?  That is the ultimate question for this one.  Early indications from O’Brien is the strategy will be to get the horse more forwardly positioned out of the gate and then let Moore decide the rest of the strategy during the race.  Finally, O’Brien does seem to have confidence they have the best chance to win with the colt’s bloodlines and prior experience and maturity.  In fact, O’Brien said “this is the best horse we’ve ever had”.  Huge statement given the 55-year-old is widely considered one of the greatest horse racing trainers of all time…

Another one to keep an eye on is the veteran 6-year-old gelding NEXT who’s coming into the race having won 7 straight since June 2023 at marathon distances ranging from 1 3/8 miles to 1 3/4 miles.  Granted, he’s never seen competition this good before, but next to Fierceness, he’s the fastest horse here and has won the last 9 races by a combined 90 lengths (an average margin of 13 lengths).  Incredible!  However, a worry is the far outside No. 14 post – for a horse that likes to be on the lead or very forwardly placed, how will he do with such a short stretch?  In any event, it’s fun to see his connections giving him a shot at the big one.  He certainly has the stamina and speed to win the Classic.

There’s also a horse on the rise I like called HIGHLAND FALLS, a four-year-old Godolphin colt trained by Brad Cox.  He’s coming off an impressive win at the G1 2024 Jockey Club Gold Cup in early September by 4 lengths.  He also has a very versatile racing style and his trainer Brad Cox said he’s been, “super consistent and seems to be doing as well now as he ever has… He is a Curlin and they normally get better the more they do the older they get and that’s what we seem to be seeing from him.” What I like best about this one is he has a very recent win at 1 1/4miles with a very high Equibase speed of 113.  An added bonus is his pedigree.  His dad Curlin won the Breeder’s Cup Classic in 2007, and his mom (Round Pond) won the Breeder’s Cup Distaff in 2006.  Will he follow in their footsteps?

A horse that we shouldn’t discount finishing in the money is 7-year-old Japanese horse USHBA TESORO.  His form may have slipped this year with three second-place finishes, but he has a 7-9 record at 1.25 miles.   The track configuration may also be an advantage for this horse as NAR tracks in Japan that he has won on have similar short stretches like Del Mar.  While other contenders may struggle with this racetrack feature, we know Ushba T will not have issues with it.  

**IF A WET TRACK:

Bump up the chances of long shot PYRENEES who was coming fast down the lane at the end of the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  He’s a 4-year-old being ridden by up and comer Brian Hernandez, Jr. and word is this son of Into Mischief is coming into the race “very sharp”.  He’s also 2-3 on a wet track.  

I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention the lightly raced Florida-based, ARTHUR’S RIDE. I’m not totally keen on him as he regressed in his last race in September (a fifth place finish at the Jockey Club Gold Cup) after smashing the Whitney in early August. But there are several reasons he could win this race. First, his Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott explained the reason for Arthur’s Jockey Club Gold regression could be the short rest between races. He has since had 2 months to rest up for this big race. Second, his Whitney victory was sensational and fast. Making his graded stakes debut, he beat good competition on a muddy track with a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. This, along with his June allowance race (111 Beyer) makes him one of the fastest horses in this race.

Good luck to all!

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