Every year since I’ve been handicapping the Kentucky Derby & writing these posts for my blog, I always seem to remark about how hard it is to do.
The circumstances surrounding this race are unlike any other in American sports:
- Twenty starters across (when most stakes races are capped at fourteen).
- A mile and a quarter on dirt (none of the horses in the Derby field have gone this far in their careers).
- 150,000+ screaming spectators (only the Preakness Stakes compares to the number of attendees).
- Open only to three-year-olds (the equivalent of teenagers in human years).
- A fresh new crop every year (talent level and experience of the field varies every year).
It’s madness.
But fun madness.
Maybe that’s what we all like about it so much.
I mean, how do we even begin to pick a winner with this set of conditions?
Why do we do this to ourselves as handicappers, spending weeks looking at the field, back and forth, looking at statistics and watching so many races?
Well, here we are again. Saturday is the 152nd Running of the Roses.
And, yeah, it’s still hard.
Perhaps even harder this year, too. The field is deep and no real favorite stands out above the rest, especially after post positions were picked last Saturday.
Many experts are saying this is a wide-open Kentucky Derby.
Add to this the three international horses that entered this field are serious competition, particularly the two Japanese horses…
But I’m going to give it a go. Like I do each year, I try to eliminate those that don’t have elite speed, (on either end or sustained). I also won’t pick any horse that has questionable stamina/bloodlines to get the distance, and I lean on a little intuition to finish the trifecta.
So, who do I like?
RENEGADE – An excellent pro handicapper & blogger I follow (STEVE HASKIN) referred to this INTO MISCHIEF colt as “the quintessential Derby horse” due to his “pedigree, running style, powerful closing kick, visual and statistical improvement & easy-going temperament.” All true facts and he will have the best jockey in North America IRAD ORTIZ, JR on board. But, that post position #1… Will it really cost him the Derby as many experts think it will? Beyond the fact that no horse has won the KD from that post since 1986, Haskin has said that you can win from the rail post if you have the right horse. I know that Renegade likes to settle off the pace but with this #1 hole, can he break cleanly, find a mid-pack spot & unleash his closing punch? We shall see. In the least, a super-fast pace should help him out as a closer and that is what experts think will happen.
EMERGING MARKET – While this horse has only two lifetime starts and none at two years old (no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby under these circumstances), his trainer CHAD BROWN would not have this horse in the filed unless he thought he was good enough. And, not only has he said this horse has the chops to contend with such limited experience, he also has indicated that he thinks his talent is special enough to win. What we have seen from the horse is enough to convince me that he’s a real contender. He’s proven he can handle inside and outside posts, has not been afraid to engage with other horses to get the win at the finish line, he’s a good gate horse and has won with extenuating circumstances before. Steve Haskin has also said that Niall Brennan who broke & trained the colt told him the horse matured early and noted that he was always “tough as hickory”.
CHIEF WALLABEE – In my eyes, not much separates this horse from COMMANDMENT and THE PUMA, with whom he had battled against in the Florida Derby and came in third. But his trainer who won with SOVEREINTY (BILL MOTT) last year is adding blinkers to help keep him focused. While experts note that a poor historical trend for horses adding blinkers for the first time in the Derby, this may be the slight edge the horse needs to keep him focused. I also like that Mott has said he’s a “chill” horse that doesn’t get affected by crowds and the paddock and that’s a big plus on Derby Day. I also compare him to COMMANDMENT, who has had issues breaking out of the gates slower.
THE PUMA – There’s so much upside to this horse who shows a lot of heart, grit and is clearly very talented. He didn’t have a 2-yr old foundation, yet he has faced very good competition and almost came out on top. He’s also had a lot of rest prior to the Derby and his trainer won the Derby with MAGE, who also prevailed without experience as a two-year old.
FURTHER ADO – When I first made my list, I had this colt on top. He has the fastest speed in the field, has won at Churchill Downs twice and has excellent stamina genes. My only concern is the pace of the race is expected to be fast, perhaps even faster than usual which doesn’t help this horse who likes to press the pace. I’m also concerned he burned himself up when he routed the field at the Bluegrass Stakes. But then again, his jockey John Velazquez gives this colt a big chance. He’s won the Derby three times so far in his career (2011, 2017, 2020). Yes, I’m still torn about him perhaps because I have become a fan of this horse. Hope he does better than I expect.
COMMANDMENT – Even though Commandment has won 4 in a row and done everything asked, his slower speed at the FL Derby AND his gate issues are concerns. Still, I love everything else about him – Stalking style plus strong closing speed, sire, ability to force through traffic, won at CD, connections. It feels more to experts like this colt may not unleash a huge performance at KD and his Thoro-Graph numbers might back this adage. Meanwhile, others like CHIEF WALLABEE may take a step forward which I feel is probably accurate. So, I drop him down a bit but I still believe in him and have enjoyed the ride this grinder has given us fans so far.
HONORABLE MENTIONS-
SO HAPPY – This is the type of horse that looks great on paper- improving Beyers, Thoro-Graph numbers, has cracked 100 Beyer Speed Figures, great racing style (likes to be in the first flight behind pace setters) and fits the fast fractions theory. But a couple questions about this one is: will he handle the distance of the Derby with his breeding which is a mix of speed from sire & stamina on mom’s side. And we’re not sure how the California horses have been this year compared to others who seem faster.
DANON BOURBON – This Japanese trained horse and son of MAXFIELD is one of the only in the field to face a big field (16) and prevail by a wide margin. He’s also got Triple Crown breeding and has been very dominant. Of course, concerns include his acting out at Churchill Downs when he first arrived last Sunday and international shippers have not fared super well in the Derby, but there seems to be something there that could make him competitive.
WONDER DEAN – The other Japanese horse is also very interesting to me. He’s got an impeccable Kentucky Derby pedigree which means he has stamina for days. I also like that his trainer went to the Derby in 2024 with another Japanese horse, so he knows what to expect. The colt is also described as easy to ride, has proven he never gives up despite being behind horses, breaks well from the gate and has a tactical style. Maybe he’s more of a Belmont Stakes kind of horse as a grinder, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish well in the Kentucky Derby.