It’s no secret that Turkey Day is one of my favorite holidays of the year. I love everything from the crisp Autumn air to the great food, but I especially enjoy both being served up with a generous helping of the National Football League.
And apparently, I’m not alone in that sentiment. For the last three consecutive years, the NFL set viewership records for its annual Thanksgiving Day football games and, last year, the league saw the highest viewership average on record (dating back to 1988). The NFL also smashed digital streaming records across multiple platforms on Turkey Day in 2024.
This year, viewership records are again expected to break all-time highs, especially during Game 2 when KC faces Dallas at Jerry World. These two franchises are two of America’s most popular teams and both also came from behind in their respective games against conference foes last week keeping their playoff hopes alive…
Obviously, Football and Turkey are a popular association today, but has it always been this way?
According to the NFL Hall of Fame, the sport’s tradition of holding football games on the holiday started since the league’s inception in 1920. But it didn’t become a true annual tradition until 1934 when the Detroit Lions starting hosting games on an annual basis. The league then added a second annual Thanksgiving game in 1966 (which has been mostly hosted by the Dallas Cowboys every year since). In 2006, the NFL expanded again into primetime by adding a third annual game (with no specific annual host team).
Before the NFL hijacked this annual tradition of football mixed with Turkey, it was a huge college football custom dating back to the late 1880s when Princeton and Yale starting meeting on the holiday in New York. This annual event quickly grew in popularity all around the county and by the turn of the twentieth century, there were about 5,000 games being played on Thanksgiving by colleges, high schools and club teams.
Per CNN, not everyone enjoyed this growing annual tradition, however. In 1893, the New York Herald warned that the sport was ruining the holiday. They wrote, “Thanksgiving is no longer a solemn festival to God for mercies given… It is a holiday granted to the state and nation to see a game of football.”
Despite those growing concerns, Football and Thanksgiving as a custom in America have indeed become “inseparable” and almost a “sacred” pairing that everyone has come to look forward to, including myself.
For this year’s NFL Thanksgiving games, each (along with the one on Black Friday) involves meaningful outcomes and should lead to some great competitive games.
Let’s dive in.
TURKEY DAY GAME 1 – THURSDAY, NOV 27 AT 1PM, FOX
GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-3-1) AT DETROIT LIONS (7-4)
In the 2025 Week 1 opener at Lambeau Field, Green Bay won their first contest against their NFC North division rival Lions in dominant fashion (27-13). They did it by putting significant pressure on Lions QB Jared Goff who was sacked 4 times and hit 9 times. The result was Detroit struggled to score in the red zone (1 in 4). Meanwhile, Detroit’s defense failed to record a single sack or turnover against Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who threw two touchdowns. Green Bay was also 3-5 in the red zone…
It’s likely the Packers will try to draw up a similar game plan against the Lions for Turkey Day during their second meeting this season. Throughout his career, we have seen Goff flounder when he’s not had a clean pocket. Yes, Week 1 saw a rebuilt Lions offensive line featuring 2 new young Guards that hadn’t had much time to gel with the unit. But fast forward to Week 13- that unit has since performed adequate, yet they have continued to struggle in pass-blocking efficiency (Goff has been sacked 23 times in 11 games.) That puts him on pace for around 38 sacks over a 17-game season, a career high. The unit has also had injury issues, so much so that before last week’s game vs the Giants, four of the Oline starters were listed as questionable…
Obviously, for Detroit, that means the O-Line has their work cut out against GB’s D-Line to give Goff some time and help him get the ball out cleanly. An additional worry for the Detroit QB has been connection issues this season between him and his receivers who have had an uncharacteristically high number of drops.
Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, the Lions have been performing about middle of the pack overall, but consistency, coverage and pressure on opposing QBs have been relative weaknesses. And, they will need to work even harder to put pressure on Packers QB Jordan Love because he has been elite in drop back EPA against the blitz in 2025 & effective under pressure.
For GB – In addition to harassing Goff, the defense would fare well to keep pressure on Detroit’s rushing attack, an area it has excelled at this season. In fact, the Packers have been stout against the run this year, giving up less than 100 rushing yards per game. So, if they could stifle the Lions offense both in the air and on the ground, GB would likely end up with a similar result as they had in Week 12’s matchup against the Vikings when their defense allowed just 145 yards TOTAL against MIN – the fewest yards allowed by GB in 6 years…
Final Word. There are some warning signs that it will be challenging for the Lions to withstand the pressure it’s facing as the season wears on, particularly with their rebuilt Oline struggling with injuries. They’ve also seen some key injuries to the rest of their roster, but we must remember all the other big changes this team endured in the offseason like the loss of 8 assistant coaches including their offensive and defensive coordinators. If they win this one against a competitive division rival with their current struggles, it will show us a new level of fight this gutsy team has been known for since Dan Campbell took over as HC in 2021.
Of course, it’s not like Green Bay doesn’t have its own challenges right now. All year, the offense has relied heavily on their defense (and Micah Parsons) to stop the opposing offenses in order to overcome their own deficits. They, too, have faced some key injuries and while their young QB has played solidly, he still hasn’t shown us that he can make enough explosive plays (or be super productive enough) to carry the offense on his shoulders while the running game has been a bit out of balance.
Key Side Note: The Packers management has big stakes in getting another signature win against the Lions on Turkey Day. The contracts of both HC Matt LaFleur and GM Biran Gutekunst are up in 2026 and the new team president (as of July 2025) has reportedly been “on the fence” about their job security. Perhaps LaFleur and Gutekunst will use this game as further motivation to help secure their jobs for 2026 (and beyond) …
Special Teams Note: Neither side has an edge. Both team’s kickers are struggling this season- each has less than 80% field goals made over 40 yards.
TURKEY DAY GAME 2 – THURSDAY, NOV 27 AT 4:30PM, CBS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-5) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (5-5-1)
Statistically speaking, what stands out between these two teams is that they both have had high powered passing offenses (with the Cowboys a slight edge here) and both middle of the road rushing offenses this season (the Chiefs a slight edge in this dept).
Also, both QBs have similar QBRs which are at the top in the league, with Mahomes (unsurprisingly) taking a spot near the top in running with the football (#4 overall) versus Prescott (#15). But Prescott leads the way with a 141.9 passer rating on play action passes this season, having made 12 TDs and 0 interceptions while engaging in play action this year.
For Special Teams, these teams seem to be evenly matched both having excellent solid FG kickers and punters (with Dallas a slight edge here).
But the better defense by far this season has been the Chiefs – they have ranked within the top 11 in all the major categories, holding opponents down to the fourth least points per game (18.3) and (293) total yards per game, good for sixth best in the league. At the same time, Dallas’ defense has performed at or near the bottom of the league in the same categories, allowing the second most points per game on average (28.5) and third most yards per game (372.5).
That said, these overall stats can’t be counted on totally to predict outcomes which we learned last week when Dallas took on the Eagles in Week 12. After giving up 3 TDs in the first half, the Cowboys defense held the former Super Bowl Champs scoreless for the rest of the game, and which gave their offense the chance to come storming back for the win.
What made the difference for Dallas was the adjustments DC Matt Eberflus made to stifle the Eagles rushing attack in the second half while the secondary also improved its coverage by not allowing a single explosive play in the second half of the game. Per insidethestar.com, a series of midseason key defensive player acquisitions seeded the difference, and which allowed for the comeback in last week’s game.
Final Word. How will the “New Look” Dallas Defense fare against Mahomes & the Chiefs? This might be the biggest difference in the outcome of the game but if not, KC will likely dominate.
Some key stats:
- It will be the first time these organizations have met since 2021 and the first time at Arlington stadium since 2017. Since Mahomes didn’t become the starting QB for KC until 2018, it will be the QB’s first-ever start at AT&T Stadium as a Chief.
- Per Kyle Youmans, for the second week in a row, the Cowboys will play a team that appeared in last year’s Super Bowl. With a win against the Chiefs on Thanksgiving, Dallas would “be the first team since the 2016 Falcons to defeat both Super Bowl teams in consecutive weeks. But they’d be the first team in the Super Bowl era to sweep both previous representatives in a short week, with the short turnaround from Sunday to Thursday.”
- Per Nick Eatman, “The Chiefs had become one of the best teams in NFL history, in one-score games … until they weren’t. After winning 12 straight one-score games, the Chiefs had lost all five of their close games this year, until finally getting over the hump and beating the Colts in overtime last Sunday in a game they trailed at one point 14-6.”
TURKEY DAY GAME 3 – THURSDAY, NOV 27 AT 8:20PM, NBC
CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-8) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-5)
Of the games being played on Thanksgiving & Black Friday, this seems like it may be the most lopsided event than the others, and likely more in the Ravens favor. Sportsline has the Ravens a 7-point favorite, but the outcome may be higher than that due to the Bengals struggles this season on both sides of the football & particularly on defense.
The Bengals started the 2025 season 2-0 but after QB Joe Burrow suffered a turf toe injury in Week 2 that required surgery and time off the field, Cincinnati has gone 1-8 since. Burrow plans to start this game but after so many weeks away he is not expected to somehow vault this team towards the playoffs when they have a less than 1% chance of making the postseason. WR #2 Tee Higgins will also miss this game due to a concussion, which takes one of his weapons away.
What Burrow also cannot overcome is how poor Cincinnati’s defense is, currently the worst in the league. And many outlets like SI think it may end up “historically bad”. The unit has allowed the most total yards p/g this year (415.8), allowed the most passing yards p/g (259.8), second most rushing yards p/g (156) and the most points p/g (32.7) in the entire league.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are on the upswing. After a 1-5 start and QB Lamar Jackson missing 3 games due to a hamstring injury earlier in the season, Baltimore has won their last 5 games and tied with Pittsburgh for first place in the AFC North. Their defense has also been playing better allowing an average of only 13.4 points per game during their win streak & forcing a turnover in 6 straight games.
Final word. It’s true that Lamar Jackson hasn’t been his usual mobile self as he’s been struggling with a series of lower body issues this year. But he has shown us that he can be a solid passer while his injuries linger. Still, with a tight division and Joe Burrow back on the other side of the field, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Bengals did upset the Ravens on Thanksgiving night. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.
Some key stats:
- Per baltimoreravens.com: Baltimore is 32-26 vs. Cincinnati all time in regular season play, including a 19-15 mark under head coach John Harbaugh. The Ravens have won three straight against Cincinnati at home –including six of the past seven matchups – and are 12-5 vs. the Bengals in Charm City with Coach Harbaugh at the helm.
- Last Sunday vs. NYJ, Baltimore’s stifling defense forced 2 turnovers, produced 3 sacks and registered 7 QB hits, en route to a 23-10 victory. RB Derrick Henry recorded 2 rushing TDs, and rookie K Tyler Loop hit all 3 FGAs, as the Ravens won their fifth consecutive game after starting the season 1-5.
- Per Nick Hennion: “Baltimore’s offense is undeniably weaker compared to last year. Some of that has to be attributed to playing the third-hardest set of defenses through 11 games.”
BLACK FRIDAY GAME – FRIDAY, NOV 28 AT 3PM, AMAZON PRIME
CHICAGO BEARS (8-3) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-3)
It was expected to be a rebuilding year for Chicago after hiring a new Head Coach, new GM, new Defensive Coordinator, new Offensive Coordinator and other coaching staff and personnel changes as well as several player roster moves in the offseason.
So, to say the Bears have exceeded expectations as the team heads into Week 13 with an 8-3 record and leading the NFC North Division would be a big understatement. The team has experienced its best start since 2018 while also behind by a QB completing less than 60% of his passes and a consistent stream of injuries to their defense. So how have they done it?
The team has committed to the vision of Head Coach Ben Johnson (who came from Detroit as an OC), they’ve also excelled in taking the ball away from opponents (24 times – 16 were interceptions), Johnson has employed a creative run-first offense designed to protect the QB and embrace his talents, and they have found an ability to be clutch at the right moments.
To be fair, of the Bears 8 wins, 6 have come against opponents with losing records. Their 2 losses came in the way of blow outs by Detroit and Baltimore. And up ahead, is a gauntlet of 6 games against teams with winning records, including Black Friday’s matchup with the Eagles on the road.
So, it will be interesting to see if the Bears can continue their upward trajectory and beat a Philadelphia team that is reeling from a tough loss against Dallas on Sunday. One thing is for sure: Chicago has shown us a level of grit that we haven’t seen from the Windy City team in quite some time and its refreshing. I don’t think many would have guessed when the season started that the Bears would have won 8 of their last 9 (including 4 road wins & 5 comeback victories) before Thanksgiving.
For the Eagles, losing to the upstart Bears (who feel like they are a drop in class) would be devastating to the team’s morale going forward. Who could forget their epic collapse just 2 seasons ago in 2023 when the team started 10-1 but lost 5 of their last 6 games only to suffer a blowout loss in the wild card playoff to end their season? They definitely don’t want to repeat that experience, especially after having won the 2024 Super Bowl in dominant fashion.
But stranger things have happened to the Eagles this season which has been defined by an inconsistent and struggling offense which continues to make costly mental errors and too many penalties. And, on the defensive side of the ball, it’s clear that the young talent (who are filling in for the holes left behind by roster changes in the offseason) are struggling with inconsistency and experience.
Final word. It’s hard to know where Philadelphia’s head is at after such a tough loss to Dallas last week. We know they have the talent and the will to push themselves towards the playoffs. But it would go a long way for the team to collect itself and put down the hammer on a young team like Chicago flowing with confidence before heading into the final chapter of the season.
Some key stats:
- Per Dave Spadaro:
- The Eagles lead the NFL in touchdown efficiency in the red zone on offense and are third-best in red zone defense. The Bears are 16th in red zone offense and 26th in red zone defense.
- Winds gusts of up to 30 mph or more are expected. This would impact special teams and the passing games. The Eagles saw the same conditions in the win over Detroit. Chicago? The Bears come from the Windy City. Weather won’t bother the Bears.