HORSE RACING – 2024 BREEDER’S CUP DISTAFF

RACE PROFILE:  LONGINE’S BREEDER’S CUP DISTAFF

DISTANCE: 1 1/8 miles on DIRT

FIELD:  8

GRADE: 1 

AGE: 3+ Thoroughbred Fillies & Mares

PURSE: $2 million US

LOCATION: Del Mar, CA

POST TIME: NOV 2, 2024, 4:21PM ET

TV: NBC (Coverage starts at 3:30-6:00pm)

This past May, veteran trainer Kenny McPeek took two elusive monkeys off his back by winning his first Kentucky Oaks and first Kentucky Derby in a span of 24 hours.  He was the first trainer to sweep both races in 72 years.  

McPeek and his jockey (Brian Hernandez Jr.) who had ridden both Thorpedo Anna in the Oaks and Mystik Dan in the Derby, had been a combined 0-33 in prior Oaks/Derbies. 

But, about two weeks prior to Oaks/Derby, McPeek had actually predicted he had a good chance to accomplish this tremendous feat.  He said, “Look, I wouldn’t be surprised if I won them both… I feel that confident.”

Coming into this weekend, McPeek has never had a winner at the Breeder’s Cup before.  He’s had some second, third and fourth place finishers, but never a first.  His record is 0-37.  He said recently about it, “I’ve been pretty unlucky. I’m the best worst trainer at the Breeders’ Cup.”

Safe to say, McPeek is hopeful to slay his Breeder’s Cup demons this year like he did in the spring with the Oaks/Derby.  He has an excellent chance of doing so as his prodigy, the reigning Kentucky Oaks winner Thorpedo Anna, headlines the Breeder’s Cup Distaff tomorrow. 

While he didn’t say resoundingly that he thinks T-Anna will win, he seemed very confident today about her chances for the victory and beyond. “[She’s the] champion 3-year filly of the year without any problem, but she’s a serious chance to be horse of the year if she wins Saturday.”

That would be yet another major accomplishment McPeek’s barn would mark off their list, all on behalf of the tremendously talented filly he purchased as a yearling for a bargain price of $40,000 in 2022.  

Over the last two years of her career, Thorpedo Anna has 7 wins and 2 second places including a slim loss to Fierceness in the Travers Stakes in August.  She attempted to become the first female winner of that Grade 1 race in over 100 years and lost by a head.

Now, as she comes into the Distaff, she will face 7 other competitors including 3 serious challengers.  

The best of the lot may be RAGING SEA, the 4-year-old filly sired by Curlin.  She has won her last 3 in a row including the Grade 1 Personal Ensign where she beat the respected Idiomatic who retired right before the Breeder’s Cup meet.  She also came in third two years ago in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies.  However, her speeds fall short a bit to me including her 92 Equibase figure in October at 1 1/8m.  

Another intriguing challenger is the four-year old American-bred Japanese-trained horse, AWESOME RESULT.  She is a daughter of the great Triple Crown winner Justify and undefeated in 7 starts.  Her jockey, Yutaka Take, said he feels she is “getting stronger with every race”.  While she seems like a talented horse on the rise, it isn’t clear that she’s faced the talent level before as in this race, or the speed.   

There’s also SUGAR FISH, the 3-year-old Accelerate filly who won last time out in September in the (G2) Zenyatta Stakes with a 112 Equibase figure and impressive speed at 1 1/16m.  While a longshot, she is from southern California (a plus).  Still, it doesn’t seem like she’s in the same orbit as T-Anna but talented nonetheless.  

All that said, I don’t think anyone else really has a chance to win this race except THORPEDO ANNA.  She is far and away the most accomplished filly in this race.  And her size, speed & demeanor are going to be too much for the other competitors to overcome.  

The only knocks we could pick on her for include the fact that she has never raced this far west before.  Also, McPeek had indicated that she sustained a minor shallow leg wound while shipping to CA.  But, he also said it’s healed nicely, she’s continued to train well and it should not be a factor. (It’s still something to keep in mind for handicappers.)  

Bottomline, if all systems are go, the “grizzly bear” seems likely to add another accomplishment to the great Kenny McPeek’s resume on Saturday, while also knocking another monkey off his back.

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