HORSE RACING – JUSTIFY’S CHANCES TO WIN THE 2018 BELMONT STAKES & TRIPLE CROWN

After Justify ran in the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago, my heart sunk a little.

Seeing how close the competition came to beating him, I wondered how he was going to come back so quickly and secure the win at the mile and a half Belmont Park for the Triple Crown.

 

However, since that race, I’ve watched and listened carefully to the colt’s trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith to get a sense of what happened.

The good news:  They both had more than one explanation for why things were so close in Baltimore and they seemed very encouraged about the colt’s trip.

I’ve also uncovered other reasons why I think the big red colt could become our thirteenth Triple Crown champion.

The Day After the Preakness

The sun shined on Pimlico the day after Justify won the rainy second leg of the Triple Crown, just like it did after he won the Kentucky Derby.

And, both times, Baffert was pleased with what he saw.

But, since we were just a few short weeks away from the ultimate test of his great stallion, I was particularly keen on hearing how the Hall of Fame trainer thought his horse did after the Preakness.

With a big sigh of relief, I was glad to hear him say Justify looked “good”, “bright” and came out of it “better than [American] Pharoah” did.

He was also very happy with what he thought was a great yardstick that proved just how good a race horse he really is.

Specifically, Baffert liked how Justify had to work to outduel the legit Chad Brown protégé Good Magic in the Preakness and fend off a couple of well-rested stalkers who rushed him at the finish line.

Mike Smith also explained that the close finish was partially due to him easing off Justify somewhat to save his energy for the next race.  He said, “[I] could’ve got after him a whole lot more a little earlier and made him do a little more as well”.

Luckily, Good Magic faded down the stretch, but Smith thought he had it won at that point.  He was surprised to see Bravazo and Tenfold starting to come fast.  “It probably got a little closer than it should have”, he explained.

Still, Smith did admit that Justify looked a bit tired.  But, both he and Baffert seem convinced that the colt had more in the tank and can handle Belmont’s mile and a half.

What I take away from this is the jockey did not fully engage Justify during the Preakness and tried to the let him coast towards the finish line without expending all his energy.  I also like the way the colt recovered in such a short period time, even better than Baffert’s Triple Crown winning American Pharoah.

The Belmont

As a reminder, Belmont is the longest race track in North America.  Most other tracks on the continent are just one-mile long.  It’s also the same oval shape as most others making the corners much wider and longer and stretches longer and more gradual being a mile and a half.

The amount of sand in the soil also makes horses dig in to find their footing, meaning more effort per stride.

All of which adds up to more energy has to be spent by Justify getting to the finish line.  This makes me nervous. 

Luckily, this time he gets a dry track.  At the time of this posting (about 4 hours from post time), no rain is in the forecast for Belmont and the week has been relatively dry.  Ok, this makes me a little less nervous.

Earlier this week, Justify drew the No. 1 post.  That made me really nervous.

But, then I remembered that because the way the track is shaped with sweeping far turns, being on the inside rail is closer to the starting position.  Ok, a little less nervous now.

Even better, I learned since posting became available at Belmont in 1898, 23 horses have won from the No. 1 post and 5 of those were Triple Crown winners.  So, should I continue to be nervous about this post?  Unfortunately, Yes.

The ultimate issue with Justify running from the rail is the racing strategy.

If Justify was on the outside, the jockey has more options.  Ultimately, he’d want the colt not to run on the lead and stay just off of the horse Baffert entered as a “rabbit” for Justify (Restoring Hope).   That would allow the horse to relax and run his own race.  This is how American Pharoah did it in 2015.

Now, with the far inside post, it means Smith will have to get Justify on the lead right away to avoid getting pinned inside the first turn.  This will mean Justify will have to go wire to wire… for a mile and half… with other horses trying to push him and tucker him out.  Now, I’m really nervous.

So, this is the ultimate set up of the race and the biggest question:  Assuming Smith gets Justify out clean from No. 1 and on the lead, how will the colt handle the distance and the other well-rested horses that almost ran him down in the Preakness?

The horse that finished second at Pimlico and who almost passed Justify is Bravazo.  He returns to face the champ today.

The third-place horse in the Preakness and who also came running at the finish line was Tenfold.  He too, comes back to challenge our favorite.

They both came out of the race well and have looked good in training.

And, what of the other nine competitors?

Two that are definite contenders include Vino Rosso and Hofburg.  I zeroed in on them in the Kentucky Derby as horses on the rise, both who have great speed, and distance in their pedigree.   I just question if Belmont Park is primed for closers like this?  I’m not 100% sure it is.

I also hear good things about the Baffert rabbit, Restoring Hope.  He’s a pace setter and likes being near the lead.  If he doesn’t get out too fast, he could finish well.

The Verdict

If it wasn’t for that No. 1 post, I’d be locked in on Justify winning the Triple Crown.  I think it’s the worst-case scenario that Baffert didn’t want for the champ.

It really makes this race the ultimate test for this colt.  If he truly is great, he’ll have to prove it today.  And, it won’t be easy.

That’s why the Triple Crown is so hard to win.  In 99 years, only 12 horses have done it.

But, Baffert has been very confident about his horse’s chances, loves his swagger, and just said on Friday, “he looks like he’s getting even better” and “I feel just as good about this horse as I feel about American Pharoah.”

We also know that Justify is fast, has set the pace and can hold a fast pace from the front.

Having the lead might not be all that bad on this track as well.  Unless he gets into another duel for the front or pushed right off his flank, he could just set up shop, relax and wait for the others to try and catch him.

And, one more thing for luck: an excellent handicapper I follow (Michael J. Cox) recently posted this: “There has been only 1 undefeated Triple Crown contender – Seattle Slew—who won the Triple Crown… Justify is the great-great-great grandson of Seattle Slew on this dam’s side.”

So, with some reservations, here’s how I see the 2018 Belmont Stakes top finishers:

• Justify
• Bravazo
• Hofburg
• Tenfold
• Vino Rosso
• Restoring Hope

Good luck, Justify!

 

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