HORSE RACING – KENTUCKY DERBY 2018 PICKS

All of the horses racing today in the Kentucky Derby will be facing “firsts”:  Distance (1 1/4 miles); Limelight (160,000+ people expected); Field (20 horses).

How each individual handles it all is what makes this race so interesting.  I’ve heard it said that the best horse doesn’t necessarily win the Derby; the one with the best trip does.

Add in a very deep talented field with several question-marks surrounding the favorites, this year’s race could make the most seasoned handicapper’s head spin in their journey to pick a winner.

But, for those like me who love to watch thoroughbreds run, it’s a necessity.  Sometimes you hit it on the head, other times not so much.

As for my picks, I went with more of a statistical approach this year.  It was just too tough to fight my attraction towards picking Justify and all the reasons he shouldn’t win this race.  It was easiest for me to go to the numbers.

So, without further ado, the horses I think will be the top finishers of the Derby are:

JUSTIFY

BOLT D’ORO

AUDIBLE

HOFBURG

VINO ROSSO

The ringers:    

MY BOY JACK  (Expert on wet tracks)

MENDELSSOHN  (Can’t ignore his 18.5 length win in Dubai weeks ago)

MY REASONING

Statistically, these horses are on the rise and fastest (in their last 3 races):

• Audible
• Bolt d’Oro
• Hofburg
• Justify
• Lone Sailor
• Magnum Moon
• Mendelssohn
• Noble Indy
• Vino Ross.

Horses whose pedigrees suggest an aptitude for the 1 ¼ mile distance:

• Bolt d’Oro
• EnticeD
• Hofburg
• Instilled Regard
• Solomini
• Vino Rosso.

Those who have proven themselves winners on wet tracks which may give them an edge (today’s forecast is for showers at post time 6:45pm ET):

• Flameaway (Very versatile horse has won on both sloppy & muddy tracks)
• Justify (Won an allowance race on a muddy track on March 11)
• Lone Sailor (Blew out competition at Saratoga by 11 lengths)
• My Boy Jack (He is bred to excel on wet tracks and his trainer/jockey brother duo have proven they can take a deep closer like this and win at the Kentucky Derby – Exaggerator).

BOTTOM-LINE

ON PAPER, Justify is the clear favorite and looks to be “a man amongst boys”.  BUT, if he flops, it’ll open the door to the other contenders.

I LOVE Mendelssohn and have a gut feeling about him.  Again, how will he handle it all and the curse of European horses not being able to win on the first Sat in May follows his chances.

I’m also rooting for Bolt d’Oro.  He’s got everything you look for in a potential Triple Crown Winner.  Can he prove he’s the best today?

HAPPY DERBY DAY!!!

RESOURCES

Kentucky Derby 2018 – Handicapping Cheat Sheet

For a more comprehensive breakdown of the Derby contenders, see my Apr 27 article here.

A closer look at Bolt d’Oro and the preliminary look at the field in March.

 

 

 

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