NFL – 2019 REGULAR SEASON – STATS THAT STICK OUT (AND WILD CARD ROUND PREDICTIONS)
Another NFL regular season is in the books and we have a new post season to look forward to. There have been a couple of surprises which will have a lasting effect on who wins Super Bowl 54: Namely, the Patriots are playing wild card weekend for the first time in a decade. Five of our twelve playoff teams were AWOL in the 2018-19 post season. And, the Ravens (AFC) and 49ers (NFC) finished as the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences during the same year for the first time in NFL history. (Who saw that one coming?)
But, before we prep ourselves for the next five weeks, let’s take a look at some of the players who stood out statistically during the regular season. Then I’ll throw in my predictions for this week’s upcoming Wild Card Round.
JAMEIS WINSTON, QB (BUCCANEERS) – PASSING LEADER
The dubious records Jameis Winston has set this past year have been well chronicled: He became the first player in NFL history to record 30+ touchdowns and 30+ interceptions in a single season. He also broke the record for throwing the most interceptions returned for a touchdown by any quarterback (7). All told, opponents scored 112 points off the 25-year old’s turnovers this year. Ouch. At the same time, the former No. 1 pick did some special things when he wasn’t mishandling the football. He ranked first in: Total passing yards (5,109) (good for eighth best in NFL history); Passing attempts (626); Yards per game (319.3); Passing first downs (243); and Passing 20+ yards (75). He was also second in Total touchdowns (33) and eighth in red zone passer rating (99.0). This up and down performance now puts Tampa Bay in a bit of a quandary, as Winston becomes a free agent at season’s end. The Florida State alum’s average annual TD to interception rate during his five-year career is: 24.2 to 17.6.
But, whether or not the Buccaneers slap a franchise tag on Winston and decide to keep him around a couple of years, I think everyone needs to accept him for who he is (including Jameis). And, that is: He’s a Babe Ruth. A swinger for the fences. It’s all, or nothing, baby… In 1927 and 1928, the Bronx Bomber hit the most home runs in the league, and was also the strike out leader. And, he had 714 career home runs to 1,330 strikeouts. But, the Babe never shied away from his aggressive style. He owned it. “I hit big or I miss big. I like to live as big as I can,” he once said. That bold style brought him success. If he didn’t swing and miss all those times, he never would have connected for all those home runs. Jameis Winston has the same DNA. He likes to sling it, but it won’t necessarily go into the right team member’s hands. He’ll never be truly efficient and have the best QBR. A team may try to work on improving his turnover tendencies, but it won’t have a lasting effect. You can’t make him what he’s not. But, he’ll get you lots of touchdowns and, give you chances to win. For that, he deserves credit. Of course, if he has proper protection, that could help matters. In 2019, Winston was sacked 47 times, the most of his NFL career. He also had the worst passer rating of his career…
DERRICK HENRY, RB (TITANS) – RUSHING LEADER
In 2019, this four-year running back had his best career year. In 303 attempts (the league’s most), he rushed for 1,540 yards (the league’s most). He also had 20.2 attempts per game, 102.7 yards per game, and 16 touchdowns (all – the league’s most.) And, with these stats, the 25-year old Heisman winner became only the fourth Titan in the history of the NFL to lead the league in rushing. Henry also won the AFC Offensive Player of the Week award twice this season, including Week 17 when he had 211 rushing yards and 3 TDs on 32 attempts (all season highs). This stellar performance helped propel Tennessee into the playoffs. But his continued effort will be needed as the Titans roll into Foxboro on Saturday for the second Wild Card game of the 2019 post season. New England’s defense is tied for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed during the regular season. Thus, the big question will be: How will NE handle the 6’3, 247-pound Derrick Henry who is peaking right now?
MICHAEL THOMAS, WR (SAINTS) – RECEIVING LEADER
Whoever had this man on their fantasy team, I congratulate you. In 2019, this superstar receiver broke Marvin Harrison’s 17-year old receptions record of 143 catches with 149. He also finished seventh all-time with his single-season receiving yards total of 1,725, the most in the NFL this year. The 26-year old also garnered 107.8 yards per game (1st), 9 TDs and 91 first downs (1st), all career highs. With these numbers, the Ohio State alum is high on the list of candidates for the Offensive Player of the Year Award. Incidentally, that 149 catch total was 33 more than the second place finisher (Christian McCaffrey). That is the NFL’s biggest gap in catch total since 1942… On Sunday, Thomas will likely see favorable matchups with the Vikings cornerbacks, a major weakness of Minnesota’s defense, particularly with short to medium distance passes. If that is the case, Thomas will be a nightmare for the Vikings and one of the main reasons the Saints make it through to the Divisional Round.
BOBBY WAGNER, MLB (SEAHAWKS) – TACKLES LEADER
By the time this eight year pro finished the 2019 season, he racked up some major career milestones. During Week 8, he became the all-time leading tackler in franchise history moving beyond Eugene Robinson for the accolade. By season’s end, the 29-year old out of Utah State finished up with a league leading 159 tackles and had 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 1 interception. And, this week, the career Seahawk earned a first-team Associated Press All-Pro honor for the fourth straight year and fifth time in six seasons (another franchise record). Off the field, Wagner has remained just as impressive. He was chosen as Seattle’s Walter Payton Man of the Year for the work he’s done for low income housing in the local Seattle area and stroke awareness, not to mention his Thanksgiving philanthropies including donation of food and paying for people’s turkey day groceries. As the highest paid middle linebacker in the league, it’s nice to see a player with his talent level so engrossed in helping out the community he plays for. “What I do, it’s genuine. It’s from the heart,” he has said. “I don’t really care if people see that I do it, or notice that I do it, or even recognize that it was me doing it. I just do it because I feel like there are a lot of people out there that need a hand, and, you know, I try to lend a hand…I just want to help the people that I feel I can help. And if there’s an opportunity that I can help, I do it.”
SHAQUIL BARRETT, LB (BUCCANEERS) – SACKS LEADER
This 6’2, 250-pound linebacker out of Colorado State led the league with 19.5 sacks, which broke Hall of Famer Warren Sapp’s franchise record and ranked Barrett’s total T-13 all-time. He also had 6 forced fumbles, 1 interception and 58 tackles (combined) on the year. By far, this was the best season of the 27-year old’s six-year pro career. He had previously been with the Broncos as a reserve player for five years and came to Tampa Bay on a one-year deal. He is now a pending free agent and will be majorly coveted as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. It’s not an over exaggeration to say the payday is coming and it’s going to be big. But, the Buccaneers will likely try to hold on to their new breakout star despite being one of sixteen free agents this off-season. As for Barrett himself, he seems content to stay right where he is. “I want to be here,” he said recently. “I’m still going back home to Colorado to train and stuff there, but … I plan on being back here to start (organized team activities) and the season. That’s where I’m looking at right now. It’s the Bucs to lose and I don’t think they’re going to lose it.”
JUSTIN TUCKER, K (RAVENS) – KICKING LEADER
There’s only a handful of kickers in the NFL Hall of Fame. But, this 30-year old Texan and eight-year pro is making a case for himself. He is currently the most accurate kicker in the history of the league and there seems to be no stopping him. In 2019 alone, Tucker led the league in Extra Point Attempts (59) and Extra Point Percentage (99.003%), became the fastest kicker to 1,000 points in NFL History, was named to the Pro Bowl for the third time, twice named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week (11 career awards), once named to AFC Special Teams Player of the Month (7 career awards) and earned a first-team Associated Press All-Pro honor for the fourth time. He is also the current active leader in Field Goal Percentage (90.753%). Not bad for an undrafted free agent scooped up by the Ravens after the 2012 NFL Draft. Of course, he can always lean on his singing talents if something happens to his foot. He’s a classically trained opera singer (no kidding). Tucker has said that musical talent and kicking talent go hand in hand. Both require confidence and “attention to detail”. “When you are performing a piece of music, you are doing everything you can to emote and convey a message, while still being focused on each note,” he has said. “Whereas in a football game, there are a lot of ups and downs and emotions. I think about embracing it and harnessing them in a way that is productive, while still being singularly focused on the task at hand.” Bravo, Mr. Tucker.
WILD CARD ROUND PREDICTIONS
AFC 1 – 5. Buffalo Bills at 4. Houston Texans
If it wasn’t for J.J. Watt returning back from injury after eight weeks, I’d easily pick the Bills to take the win from the Texans in this Wild Card game. But, he’s a difference maker and will help that Houston defense which has been limping along without him and Jadeveon Clowney (traded to the Seahawks in the off-season). Overall, the Houston D finished at the bottom of the barrel this season, ranked 28th (29th passing D; 25th rushing D). They also allowed too many points per game (24.1). On the flip-side, the Bills defense has been clutch and finished third overall (4th passing D; 10th rushing D). They’ve also allowed only 16.2 points per game (good for 2nd best in the league). This is going to be a close one and will likely come down to a simple mistake by the Texans who can’t protect their young QB. I’m giving the Bills the edge because of that defense but also because they seem to have enough will to win to push them over the top.
AFC 2 – 6. Tennessee Titans at 3. New England Patriots
On paper, the Patriots rank higher than the Titans do in every way, except rushing offense and red zone scoring efficiency. Most notably, New England’s defense has been the best overall in the league with the second best passing D and sixth best rushing D. At home, Bellichick’s defense has been particularly stingy, allowing only 77 yards per game. So, likely, their focus on Saturday will be on Titans running back Derrick Henry who has had a breakout season. If he can be neutralized, New England will score more points. In the turnover department, NE has been opportunistic, earning the second most takeaways in the league and the third least giveaways. That left NE finishing with the best turnover differential (+25) than any other team during the regular season. The Titans earned a respectable (+6) overall, but their defense hasn’t gotten the takeaways when they needed them as much as NE. I’m picking the Patriots to beat the Titans at home by 7-12 points.
NFC 1 – 6. Minnesota Vikings at 3. New Orleans Saints
Before the season started, I picked the Saints to go to the Super Bowl and lose to the Chiefs. I’m staying with my NFC pick, because this is a complete football team with a stellar offense hitting on all cylinders right now. What gives New Orleans a further edge is playing at home amongst their devoted fans and their ability to stop the run. NO’s rushing D was 4th best this season, allowing only 91.3 yards per game which will help when the Vikings will have their stud running back Dalvin Cook in the lineup. But, I’m not feeling a blow-out here. The Vikings offense will also be fully loaded with Adam Thielen working his way back from a bad hammy. This one should be a fun showdown between two exciting offenses. Still, the Saints will go marching on to the Divisional Round by 3-7 points.
NFC 2 – 5. Seattle Seahawks at 4. Philadelphia Eagles
At the outset of the season, I thought both these teams would be here. Well, the way they both got here was not what most would have foreseen. Nevertheless, devastating injuries to key players on both teams have forced them into scratching and clawing their way to this moment. Most of us are particularly surprised by Philadelphia’s efforts, but there is enough depth on this team and a stronger defense to think they could beat the Hawks at home on Sunday. However, I think the Eagles have finally hit their limit and will be stopped by a Seattle team who wants revenge against the 49ers after Week 17’s slim loss. The Eagles won’t go down easily, but Seattle gets this one by at least one score.
Sources :
NFL PLAYER STATS: http://www.nfl.com/stats/player
NFL TEAM STATS: http://www.nfl.com/stats/team
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Anne
January 4, 2020 (3:44 pm)
Am impressed with all your homework!!!