HORSE RACING – TRAVERS STAKES 2024 PREDICTIONS
For casual horse racing fans who mostly stick to the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup series, you may not be aware of the blockbuster contest about to go down in Saratoga tomorrow…
It’s a Grade 1 race covering 1.25 miles that will have eight 3-year-old contenders, six of whom are graded winners. They include this year’s Belmont Stakes winner, the Kentucky Derby runner-up, the 2023 Juvenile Champion and one exceptional filly (the reigning Kentucky Oaks victor) plus a couple of lightly raced live long shots.
If you’re still unsure of what race I’m referring to, good- I’m glad I caught you in time because I don’t want you to miss the TRAVERS STAKES taking place tomorrow, Saturday August 24 at 6:10pmET (post-time) on FOX.
Nicknamed the “Midsummer Derby”, the Travers Stakes is one of the top five most important thoroughbred races in America along with the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Preakness and Breeders Cup.
First contested in 1864, the Travers is also technically the oldest stakes race in the United States specifically for three-year-olds. (The Kentucky Derby is the oldest continuously run race in U.S. history.)
What makes the Travers so interesting and prestigious every year is the timeframe it is held (the end of August). It generally draws an exciting assortment of contestants who may have missed out on the Triple Crown races and/or perhaps late bloomers seeking to shine or become eligible for the upcoming Breeders Cup held in the autumn.
For the 2024 version, it’s setting up to be a wild one chock full of heavy-hitters and a couple long shots who can upset. Yeah, it’s going to be memorable. So, let’s find out a little more about the contestants:
By POST POSITION and includes Morning Line Odds-
1. – THORPEDO ANNA (3-1) – Unusual name for an unusual horse. A filly. She’s 6-1 against fellow females and has won 4 of her last 4 (3 of them Grade 1s) by a combined 18+ lengths.
CONS – She’s never run at 10 furlongs distance before and never against the boys. The last filly to win the Travers was in 1915 (Lady Rotha). There is also a concern that she may get anxious in the gate and have an awkward start like she has in other races. But she will be facing 7 tough male competitors this time out. She has to have a clean break here to win.
PROS – She’s a huge filly with a big, long stride and her size resembles that of a colt the same age. Nickname is “Grizzly Bear”. Her trainer (Kenny McPeek) has also been super confident about her leading up to this race and that is a huge endorsement given he generally has a great read on his prodigies’ outcomes. This includes taking a filly (Swiss Skydiver) to the 2020 Preakness and winning it against the boys. Thorpedo Anna also ran her fastest race in her last race a month ago, so it’s clear to see she’s still improving. And Saratoga has become her “home” track with two wins over the track.
THOUGHTS – She’s got the rail and she’s a pace setter. This could be favorable for her (least distance around), or she could get jammed up behind others who like to be forwardly placed and are to the outside of her. But I’m sure her brilliant jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. has a contingency plan for this (he won the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan by riding the rail.).
2. – SIERRA LEONE (7-2) – Bought for $2.3million as a yearling, this son of Gun Runner is one of my personal favorite three-year olds to watch this year. He’s 3-3-1 and almost won the Kentucky Derby if not for a duel down the stretch with the Japanese horse Forever Young.
CONS – He tends to drift in the stretch and switched jockeys after the Kentucky Derby due to very close interference issues which I’m not sure is/was the best decision for him, despite to the switch to a very respected jockey (Prat).
PROS – He’s never finished more than a length and a half behind the winner in any of his three losses, including the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes where he finished third. He’s also a slam dunk for getting the distance having proven he can run 10f no problem and has solid pedigree for stamina to boot.
THOUGHTS – He hasn’t won since April and while he has come close, the quality of his competition is so strong he’s had trouble beating them. But I do like the consensus building up to this race that we will see a very fast pace up front which opens the door for a closer like Sierra Leone. There’s also the theory that trainer Chad Brown entered Unmatched Wisdom as a “rabbit” for Sierra to help torch the pace up front. I’m not really counting on this theory, because there already is going to be a hot pace with so many front runners, but it’s something to at least take note of.
3. – UNMATCHED WISDOM (8-1) – Three lifetime starts and three wins for this talented son of Cairo Prince. He had been sick in the fall while he prepared for racing season.
CONS – He has never faced this caliber of competition before and is making his graded stakes debut. This is a big ask for a colt with such little experience compared to the others who are proven.
PROS – Trainer Chad Brown seems confident in the colt because he seems to be improving, has a win in Saratoga already, has good “positional speed” and will be ridden by Irad Ortiz, arguably the best jockey in North America.
THOUGHTS – It seems that this colt is an unknown but has the talent to take a step forward. The Travers is one hell of a test, but he earned his spot for this race with his speed, especially including a 98 Beyer in his maiden debut which is outstanding. I also like the buzz surrounding this horse since Chad Brown has been talking him up around the circuit this season.
4. – CORPORATE POWER (15-1) – This is a son of Curlin that has 5 lifetime starts and 2 wins. He’s been consistent, hitting the board in last 4 races. He recently finished behind Unmatched Wisdom in the Curlin Stakes last month. A late bloomer.
CONS – He did not debut until he was three years old. This is a big ask to jump in competition.
PROS – He likes to be a stalker in races which may be a great spot to be in this one. With all the hot speed projected to be up front, he could benefit from the pace and set up. Trainer Shug McGaughey has been around the block (and back) and has won the Travers 4 times (1989, 1990, 1998, 2019). So, he knows what kind of horse is needed to win this race. It’s also an interesting matchup with jockey Javier Castellano who has won this race an unprecedented 7 times (including with Arcangelo last year). Distance is also not a problem for this colt who again, might benefit from the pace setup.
THOUGHTS – I’m seeing a lot of buzz about this colt and the word is he’s improving. He’s put down nice work on the track recently as well and all that is encouraging for a developing horse. If the odds stay at or near where they are, this is a good one to include in the exotics.
5. – BATTEN DOWN (20-1) – Here’s a Tapit colt who missed the Triple Crown races but won the Ohio Derby in June and faced the big boys like Fierceness and Sierra Leone at the Jim Dandy in July and finished third. In 6 starts, he’s 2-1-2.
CONS – Down the stretch at the Jim Dandy, he stalled out and his speed figures have stalled as well. There’s no question there’s a lot of potential here but as well as he performed in the Jim Dandy, there’s more and better competition in the Travers.
PROS – The connections for this colt are top-notch including trainer Bill Mott who has finished second in this race three times as well as owner Juddmonte who won the Travers with Arrogate in 2016. We also know this horse, with his pedigree, has the stamina to get the distance and that is reassuring. I also like that he is a forwardly placed horse and the setup for this race may favor that kind of running style.
THOUGHTS – This could be a good horse to play exotics with as the colt proved he could hang with the big boys in the past and perform well. His brother is Tacitus who had respectable success finishing third in the 2019 Kentucky Derby and second in the 2019 Belmont Stakes and second in the 2019 Travers.
6. – HONOR MARIE (20-1) – I’ve had a soft spot for this deep closer since the Kentucky Derby where he unfortunately got gobbled up by the mayhem that ensued at the starting gate. He still managed to make up a lot of ground and finished eighth which is respectable, but since then has only run at the Belmont where he finished fourth.
CONS – He hasn’t won a race since November 2023 and since then has gotten beat by the outstanding talent he’s faced in graded races. He’d have to have his best day to win the Travers or come close. Additionally, neither the jockey, trainer or owner have ever won the Travers.
PROS – This colt will be wearing blinkers for the first time to help him stay more focused and be more forwardly placed which could help. He also relishes this type of distance and again, this is a major plus since others in the race have not been proven at 10f. A hot pace up front will obviously also benefit this colt who is a slow starter.
THOUGHTS – Sierra Leone is the other deep closer in this race that has a better record than Honor Marie, obviously. But interestingly, the jockey that was taken off of Sierra Leone (Tyler Gaffalione) after the Derby rides this colt in the Travers. It would be a huge twist of fate if he finished in front of Brown’s progeny.
7. – DORNOCH (5-2) – This Good Magic colt has 5 graded stakes wins and 2 second place finishes in 9 starts. He won his last 2 outings including the Belmont Stakes and Haskell Stakes last month.
CONS – As trainer Danny Gargan said, “It’s hard to win three Grade 1s in a row and it’s a really tough race.” Also, Gargan has acknowledged that if another horse gets by him at the wire last second, he could be beat.
PROS – When this colt is on his game, he is a winner. In his last 7 races, he’s finished first 5 times. He also has a propensity to fight in the stretch and has won at this distance and on this track, all major pluses. Finally, the last two races he posted his career-best speed figures.
THOUGHTS – It’s been 23 years since a Haskell winner has won the Travers. But I think Dornoch has a good chance to beat that long-standing record.
8. – FIERCENESS (3-1) – He’s won 4 times in 7 starts and has absolutely blown away his competition more than once. But those wins are generally followed up by a bad performance. His last race was a win at the Jim Dandy in July but before that was the Kentucky Derby where he finished fifteenth.
CONS – It’s tough to know which colt will show at the Travers Stakes. Literally, since November when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he’s lost his follow up and then won after that. Rinse, repeat. Is this race another downturn? There are also question marks if he gets the distance since his pedigree suggests otherwise.
PROS – This is the fastest colt in the race, hands down. No one touches him when he’s on a good day. He also has the far outside post in this race which should favor him here.
THOUGHTS – If someone were to ask me to briefly state what kind of racehorse this Todd Pletcher trainee is, I would have a hard time doing so. But I think some choice words would be: fascinating, mesmerizing at times and also frustrating. Still, the more data we can gain on him the more we can (try) to understand him more. Unless he bombs out again and then that would mean… more confusion.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
This is a very tough race to predict the outcome of. There’s so much talent here and so many factors in play. For sure, it’ll be an amazing, rare competition of heavy hitters that might decide who the Champion 3-yr old colt will be this year.
As much as I would love to see Thorpedo Anna get the win against the boys, I am concerned about her ability to break clean and compete against the likes of Fierceness and Dornoch and Sierra Leone who I think will be factors at the finish line. I also think her jockey will have to get her out of the gate very quickly and take a leading approach, or she could get pushed in the speed to her outside. And this could take a lot out of her at this distance.
On the other hand, if the real Fierceness steps up and plays his game like he is capable of, it will be curtains for everyone else. But the question remains: which Fierceness will show up at the Travers?
I also wonder: Will the pace melt down and let Sierra Leone and Honor Marie push in the mix? Or will one of our lightly raced longshots (Unmatched Wisdom & Corporate Power) be there in the end stalking the pace to pick up the pieces?
All of those thoughts aside, I’m going to go with the most consistent horse right now that keeps improving and that I know won’t back down in a fight at the end on that track at that distance and that’s Dornoch. I think he’s going to give Fierceness a fight for the finish. The other outcome I can foresee is Sierra Leone lugging up and winning at the wire with Honor Marie right behind him.
But, hell, anything can happen and honestly, any one of these horses can win this Travers Stakes.
Good luck and good health to all the contenders
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