HORSE RACING – PREAKNESS STAKES 2024 PICKS

After spending weeks handicapping the Kentucky Derby with its field of twenty (plus multiple alternates), it felt good to sit down in front of my computer this week knowing I only had eight competitors to size up for the Preakness Stakes.    

Well, it wasn’t as easy I thought it would be.  After the favorite (MUTH) scratched out of the race on Wednesday due to a fever, I have found it somewhat challenging to handicap this year’s second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Muth was coming into the Preakness as the morning line favorite and I had a shared belief Bob Baffert’s protégé was one of the best horses in the field that would be in the mix at the finish line.  

Muth is also one who likes to be forwardly placed and most definitely would have influenced the pace of the race.  So, I asked myself- how does Muth’s absence affect the chances of MYSTIK DAN, our Kentucky Derby winner, in his quest for the 2024 Triple Crown?  

Obviously, without one of the best horses in the race, (and one that had beat Mystik Dan previously), it opens the door for the Derby winner to prevail at Pimlico.  

The question remains:  Does Mystik Dan have the stamina to get the job done after only two weeks rest? While his trainer KENNY MCPEEK initially waffled on his decision to send Mystik Dan to the Preakness, he has since maintained confidence that the colt is ready to compete at nine and a half furlongs after a grueling ten furlongs at Churchill Downs so quickly.  

But is he really ready?  

In the Derby, Mystik Dan had the perfect post and was given the perfect trip for his pedigree, one that (on paper) appears to be distance-challenged due to his sire’s sprinter background (which is one of the reasons I did not key in on him to win). 

Little did I envision his jockey would give him the perfect break, avoiding all traffic and ride the rail (so close that he touched it a few times) to victory while the two other best horses in the race were engaged in a bumping duel down the stretch.

But while Mystik Dan won’t be getting the same dream trip in this race, the setup in the Preakness may still benefit him.  

Due to Muth scratching out at post #4, Mystik Dan at #5 will only have three other horses on his inside, and they are closers who may like to drop back.  Assuming Baffert’s other horse in the race, IMAGINATION (#8 POST) will move in to get the lead, the other horses looking to be up front as well or press the pace (JUST STEEL, SEIZE THE GREY, TUSCAN GOLD) will all be to his outside – giving jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. another opportunity for a rail trip to save ground.

Then there’s the forecast… Mystik Dan is fine with wet tracks and perhaps even relishes them having won on multiple wet tracks.  As of the posting of this article, showers are in the forecast for Baltimore on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Imagination has no record running on a wet track.  And, if he really hates it, well, then the race opens up even more especially if he doesn’t get the front.  

The last word on Imagination is that I do have some concerns he’ll hold the line on the front and wire the field.  I see some signs I don’t love to put my eggs in his basket like his lacking Thorograph numbers and the fact that his Beyer speed figures went down with added distance.  I also don’t love that he feels like “the other Baffert horse”.  On the one hand, it looks good that Baffert brought this horse across the country to compete in this prestigious race.  He obviously thinks the colt has the talent and ability.  But Bob had admitted he had a hard time figuring out this one.  And while the word is the colt has gotten bigger and more athletic, he has showed continued signs of immaturity.  So, what exactly do we have here with Imagination?  Perhaps he’ll show us how good he really is on Saturday.  

But no matter what Imagination does or doesn’t do, Mystik Dan is going to have to chase him down (or anyone else on the lead).  And that requires stamina.  He certainly has the speed to do it.  Only he knows how fast and far he is willing to go…

Still, the more I think about this race, the more I LOVE the scenario and story that is being built.  

Mystik Dan has earned some of the keys to the Triple Crown kingdom and now his path gotten slightly easier with the scratching of Muth.  His next hurdle is to get past some other more rested foes that don’t have nearly the accomplishments he has, nor have showed us the same speed figures he has.  Essentially, the 2024 Preakness is his race to lose.

What would hold him back from winning would be either a bad break or his own fitness.  Yes, he is facing more fresher faces in the field like Imagination who comes in on six weeks rest.  But to be a Triple Crown champion with the current set up of only two weeks rest after a grueling race, you’ve got to prove yourself.  

This one is Mystik Dan’s for the taking and while I’m at it, so is the Triple Crown.  

For a horse with his pedigree, going to Saratoga and racing at ten furlongs is a GIFT while the usual Belmont Stakes runs at TWELVE furlongs on a deep, sandy track.  (While Belmont racetrack is being renovated for the next two years, the Belmont Stakes in 2024/2025 are being held at Saratoga.)

Now it’s the horse’s task (and the jock) to move forward once again.  We then might have a Triple Crown at play for the first time since JUSTIFY won it all in 2018.  

OTHER HORSES IN THE FIELD I LIKE

I have zeroed in on UNCLE HEAVY since I first looked at his resume.  He’s a PA-bred closer/stalker who won the Withers with a late rally and it’s likely that we haven’t seen the best of him yet due to the really bad trip he got at the Wood.  His trainer (ROBERT REID, JR.) has never had a Preakness contender before, but is super confident that he will hold his own, “Baffert’s horse (Muth) is a standout, but after that I think Uncle Heavy rates with anyone else in the field. If things go right and there’s a good amount of speed in front of him, he’ll come running. The distance won’t be a problem. If they’re going to beat him, they better be running,” Reid said.  Usually when a trainer is this confident, they know their horse is sitting on a big race… Also, Uncle Heavy’s sire (SOCIAL INCLUSION) came in third at the 2014 Preakness and the jockey aboard will be IRAD ORTIZ, JR., arguably the best jockey in North America.  Uncle Heavy also likes a sloppy track, having gone 2-2 with a wet track.

There’s also a ton of buzz about TUSCAN GOLD, Chad Brown’s lightly raced colt has steadily improved and is fresh (seven-week layoff).  I like that he broke his maiden at eight and a half furlongs.  And his Louisiana Derby performance was very impressive where he broke from the outside, came super wide and worked up to an impressive third.  For that race, he got a 95 Beyer Speed Figure.  Assuming he’s improved since then, we could see a big performance from this colt.

CATCHING FREEDOM has also received nice buzz leading up to this race.  With his fourth-place finishing performance at the Kentucky Derby, he certainly warrants some respect here.  I also know that if his trainer BRAD COX thinks he’s ready to return after two weeks, then he is ready.  The signs have also been positive this week from the son of CONSTITUTION who has been training well at Pimlico.  The only concern would be if the pace is moderately controlled by front runner(s), it would not help closers like this one and Uncle Heavy unless the pace is more contested.

JUST STEEL is one I’m hesitant to mention here.  He just finished seventeenth at the Kentucky Derby, but you can’t deny his talent and abilities.  And he had some excuses for the Derby debacle including getting knocked around and a bad break.  But, the son of JUSTIFY has ran TWELVE races already in his young career and while there have been ups and downs, the ups have been very impressive.  He came in second to Mystik Dan at the Southwest Stakes in February, on a muddy track and then came in second to MUTH at the Arkansas Derby in March, besting Mystik Dan who finished third.  With the right forwardly placed trip, Just Steel might be on an “up” and “in the mix” at the end of this race.  However, if he does badly again, it’s time for the Hall of Fame trainer D. WAYNE LUKAS to give this guy a loooong break.   

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