NFL – 2024 WEEK 17 – STATS THAT STICK OUT
PASSING – (JOE BURROW QB, BENGALS) DEN 24 at CIN 30 – OT
Statistically speaking, 2024 has been Joe Burrow’s best season of his 5-year career in the NFL so far. With one more week to go in the regular season, he leads the league in passing completions (423), pass attempts (606), pass yards (4641) and is the passing TDs leader (42). He’s only thrown 8 interceptions in 16 games, which ranks in the top 5 in the NFL. And his 76.7 QBR is second best in the league (76.7)- just fractions away from the leader (Lamar Jackson) and tied for second place in this category with Josh Allen. All this, while being the fifth most sacked QB in the league (44). It’s actually astonishing what the 28-year-old was able to do this season with a majorly porous O-Line. SI reports that the Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in pass protection metrics (via PFF, SIS, and ESPN analytics) and as a result, Burrow has faced the second most pressure in the NFL (tied with CJ Stroud). Yet, Burrow gets a first-place passing grade amongst all QBs (per PFF) when pressured. He’s not getting much help from Cincinnati’s rushing attack either- the team ranks fourth lowest in rushing yards and near the bottom in rush TDs through Week 17. Meaning: he doesn’t have much play-action or screen schemes to rely on like other QBs in the league. Add to this: the Bengals defense has performed poorly through much of the season, particularly before Week 13… So, while he does have amazing receivers to throw to in Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, it’s clear Burrow is able to get the job done even under duress and without much help from the rest of his team. SI recently put it so well: “You’re left to conclude that Burrow is excelling at the QB position on the highest difficulty setting with chaos around him. Most years, that’s enough to win the NFL’s MVP award.” There’s still a slim chance the league could recognize Burrow’s amazing talents via that prestigious accolade. But first, the 8-8 Bengals must do their part and win their remaining game against the Steelers in Week 18 for a chance at getting into the playoffs. (According to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model, Cincinnati has a 6% chance which ranks as the slimmest margin among the three teams fighting for the final playoff spot in the AFC.). But, if Burrow plays like he did in Week 17 against the Broncos at home when he completed 39 of 49 passes for 412 yards and 3 TDs, 0 interceptions, the Bengals just might pull off the impossible. Meanwhile, Burrow remains confident he has more high performing seasons ahead of him. When asked on Tuesday if he was holding out hope for an MVP award in 2024, Burrow said he was doubtful because “you’ve got to win your division. It is what it is. That’s how it’s voted. I don’t necessarily disagree with it, I would say.” But he also added, “I’ll win one one day.”
RUSHING – (SAQUON BARKLEY RB, EAGLES) DAL 7 at PHL 41
Entering Week 17, only 8 players in the history of the NFL had ever rushed for over 2,000 yards in a single season. The list includes Pro Football Hall of Famers O.J. Simpson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis and Erick Dickerson (who holds the record for 2,105 rushing yards in 1984 for the Rams in 16 games). But, during Sunday’s game when the Eagles beat the Cowboys at home by 34 points, this prestigious club got a new member: Philly RB Saquon Barkley. In 31 carries, the 27-year-old bell cow ran for 167 yards giving him 2,005 total rushing yards on the season – good for eighth most all-time and only 101 yards away from breaking Dickerson’s record… The obvious discussion around the league and in the media since Barkley reached his milestone in Week 17 was: Will the Eagles sit him in the season finale against the Giants and rest him for the post-season, or will they let him try and beat Dickerson’s record? Selfishly, as a fan of the NFL and running backs in general, I want to see Barkley get his shot at making history. But Barkley said he could go either way. He told the press this week, “Whatever [Coach’s] decision is, I’m all for it… If his mindset is, we’ll go out there and try it, I’ll go out there and try it. If his mindset is, let’s rest and get ready for this run, I’m all for that, too… I came here to do something special. Breaking a record is special, but I want a banner up there. I think we all do.” Well, it was announced by Eagles’ Coach Sirianni on Wednesday that the Eagles have decided to sit Barkley in Week 18 along with other starters to prepare for the playoffs. Sirianni said, “Obviously it’s a very special record that’s been standing for a very long time by a great player… It’s a team record that everybody’s involved in. You weigh all those things. But at the end of the day, you just try to do what’s best for the team.” Fortunately for the team (and unfortunately for Barkley), Philadelphia clinched the NFC East division in Week 17 along with the second seed, so having a week’s rest before wild card weekend would be beneficial and preserves Barkley from getting hurt… BTW- There is one person happy that Barkley won’t play in Week 18: Erick Dickerson. The 64-year-old told USA Today this week, “These people who say, ‘records are meant to be broken,’ you ain’t got no record… When you get those records, you want to hang on to them. No matter if it was in bowling and you had 30 strikes in a row, you don’t want nobody to break that. The fastest mile ever, you don’t want nobody to break that. Those are true accomplishments. You can always look back and that record’s been held for 40 years now.”
RECEIVING – (MALIK NABERS WR, GIANTS) IND 33 at NYG 45
Despite an awful season for the Giants who currently sit at 3-13, there were some bright spots on the team including rookie WR Malik Nabers. Taken eighth overall in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft by NY, the 21-year-old helped the team avoid losing 9 straight games at home (and snap a franchise-worst 10-game losing streak) when he caught 7 passes for 171 yards and scored 2 TDs in Week 18 against the Colts. It was the LSU grad’s best game of his career so far, but he has been mighty impressive all season long while the rest of his team had struggled. In 14 games Nabers totaled 104 receptions (tied-fourth most in the league), 1,140 yards (eighth most), caught 6 TDs, was targeted 162 times (the most) and had 1,142 scrimmage yards. His 104 receptions are the most by any Giants rookie in franchise history. He is also 1 of only 5 rookies in league history with at least 100 catches. With just 3 more catches in Week 18, he will break the Giants’ single-season franchise reception record. (Steve Smith holds the record with 107 receptions in 2009.) PFF has also recognized the rookie wideout as the third Best Rookie in the league after Week 17 when he earned an “impressive” 87.4 PFF receiving grade for the season, averaging 2.13 yards per route run in his first season. Extraordinary stats considering he’s had 4 different QBs throw him the ball and none are high-level performers (Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock and Tim Boyle.) Which reminds me: Nabers also became just the third receiver since 2002 to catch passes from 4 different players while exceeding 100 receptions… Along with 25-year-old Giants rookie RB Tyrone Tracy (who leads the team with 178 rush attempts for 780 yards & 5 rushing TDs plus 1 rec TD and has 1,057 scrimmage yards), the duo are just the third pair of rookie teammates in NFL history each with at least 1,000 scrimmage yards in the same season. The other pairs to do it were Bush/Colston in 2006 and Haynes/Robinson in 1960… For the Giants, when the season ends on Sunday, it is still TBD if the team will move on from the much-embattled HC Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen duo who took over the team 3 years ago together. While they have helped bring the Giants to the playoffs in 2022 with a 9-7 record, since then NY has progressively gotten worse under their leadership (18-31-1). In the end, whatever the Giants ownership decides to do with them, at least there are some young talented players like Nabers and Tracy who help brighten the outlook of the future for the team.
DEFENSE – (TYREL DODSON OLB, PACKERS) MIA 20 at CLE 3
It’s been an up and down season for the 8-8 Dolphins. The team started very slowly, has had multiple skids of 3 losses in a row and they could never win more than 3 games straight over the course of the season. Health issues by their QB (Tua Tagovailoa) and Offensive Line have combined to be a large part of the reason the offense has fallen off sharply since 2023, but the lack of takeaways by the defense and inconsistencies by the special teams unit are also culprits. While the chances appear to be slim, there is still a legitimate pathway for Miami to make the postseason with one more week left in the regular season. They need to beat the Jets on the road in Week 18 and hope the Broncos fall to the Chiefs for the last wild card berth in the AFC, their third in 3 years. It would take a repeat performance by the offense in Week 17 when the backup QB Tyler Huntley completed 22 of his 26 attempts (85% completion rate) for 225 yards and a TD plus 7 carries for 52 rushing yards and a rushing TD. Miami would also need to shut down Jets QB Aaron Rodgers who might be extra motivated to light up the passing airways in what could be his last game ever in the NFL. The good news is that the Dolphins defense has held the line well through most of the season via players like Calais Campbell, Jordyn Brooks, and OLB Tyrel Dodson who stepped it up big in Week 18 when he accounted for 15 tackles (the highest single-game tackle total by a Dolphin since 2020) and an interception of Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the 2Q. Dodson also became the seventh player in Dolphins history to record 15 tackles in a game since tackles became officially tracked in 1994. He is also the first Dolphin since at least 1994 to record 15 tackles and an interception in a single game and one of two players to do so this season (Troy Andersen.) For his performance, Dodson was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week, the first of his career… Speaking of Miami’s defense, as I mentioned earlier the takeaways have been slim this season, but the unit’s excellent performance overall has kept the team upright while the offensive struggles have been severe. Through the first 17 weeks of the season, Miami’s total defense is third best in the league (holding opponents to an average of 310.5 yards per game) and they’ve held opponents to 20.8 points per game (eighth best). If the Dolphins can somehow clinch the last wild card playoff berth, the defense will need to continue its solid play as the team would head to Buffalo and play the Bills, the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
SPECIAL TEAMS – (IHMIR SMITH-MARSETTE WR, GIANTS)
When we watch the NFL, there’s such a spotlight put on the big stars of the game that we often forget about the many other players who work hard without much fanfare and/or big contracts. And when one of them has a big day, gains some notoriety for it and gets a guarantee from a team to keep on playing, that’s a story we should all embrace. For WR and ST specialist Ihmir Smith-Marsette, his performance in Week 17 brought him almost all the way to that dream of showing the world his underrated talent and getting some “security” in 2025. By running back a 100-yard TD return on a kickoff in last week’s Giants win over the Colts, he was named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week and with it, a presence on the national stage. According to Giants.com, Smith-Marsette scored the Giants’ first kickoff return TD since 2015. It had been 155 regular-season games between kickoff returns for the franchise, the NFL’s fourth-longest active streak when Smith-Marsette ended it. His kickoff return TD was also only the seventh in the league this season under the new “dynamic” kickoff rules… While Smith-Marsette’s performance was great for the Giants, the pending free agent does not currently have a contract with any team next year. He signed a one-year deal with NY after Week 1 to replace the team’s primary punt and kickoff returner who got injured, making it his fourth team since being a fifth-round pick by the Minnesota Vikings in 2021. He said this week, “I don’t have no security after this year. It’s coming down to the last game… My back’s against the wall. I need to show the whole world what I can do just so I can at least be thought about for next year. Somebody could take that next year and be like, hey, this kid did something… Whether it’s the first game or the last game, I’m going to give it my all. I don’t know what may happen. When a general manager or the scouts turn on that tape, they’re not going to turn on the record with it, 3-13 or whatever. They’re not going to turn on which week it was. They’re only looking at the film. For a person like me, all I can do is put good film out there.” Luckily, the 25-year-old has another week to “open the eye of somebody in this business”, as he put it. But, Smith-Marsette already has the respect of many in the league, especially in Giants camp. Special teams coordinator Michael Ghobrial gushed over his protégé this week, “It starts with the personality and his energy. It’s truly contagious. It is and when you’re looking at a returner in general, it always starts with the skill set, obviously, but there’s a plus-one attribute that not a lot of people see, and that’s the person, the human being. When people truly feel like that guy can go the distance, there’s a little bit more added bonus to making that block a little bit tighter, being a little bit more aggressive to finish those blocks, and because Ihmir is that type of person, he gives you the conviction that anytime he touches the ball in his hand, he’s going to try and score.” He added, “You see the speed. You see the ball skills, the ability to make you miss, all things that obviously he’s been able to show, and I’m really happy for him because he does work his tail off.” Here’s hoping that No. 87 gets the contract he’s looking for in 2025…
DISCUSSION: ARE ANY NFL GAMES “MEANINGLESS”?
At the end of almost every NFL regular season, a handful of playoff teams that become locked into their “seeding” ahead of the season finale opt to rest their starting players in preparation for the post season. As a result, these final games being played primarily by nonstarters (for at least one team in a matchup) are sometimes referred to as “meaningless”.
But this week Ed McCaffrey, former 13-year player, three-time Super Bowl champion, Pro Bowler, and father of two NFL starters (Christian McCaffrey and Luke McCaffrey) strongly opposed the notion that any regular season football game be regarded as inconsequential even when nonstarters are playing, especially by the players.
On Thursday’s SiriusXM NFL Radio show “Airing it Out” he told Bob Papa, “Sometimes fans get caught up thinking, it’s a meaningless game. But there’s never a meaningless game in the NFL. Those players are playing for themselves, their family, their God, their team, their fans, their respect, their legacy… Everything. There’s no such thing as a meaningless regular season game- To the players. Or at least there sure shouldn’t be. And if there is for a player, he shouldn’t be on the team.” He added, “The players that take the field, they are playing to win. Make no mistake about it.”
These observations by a respected former player should serve as a reminder to those of us who tend to favor late season games that are more meaningful when it comes to the playoff race. Hearing McCaffrey explain that each player who makes it to the pro level whether a starter, backup or practice squad member are serious professionals who take their performances seriously is something we do forget as fans. Even though nonstarters may not be the best players to walk out on the field on any given day, we need to understand that they are still fighting for wins and deserve our respect…
With that in mind, there are 3 games that could be impacted by starters being limited and/or rested completely in Week 18. These include the Bills at Patriots, Giants at Eagles and Texans at Titans. The Bills, Eagles and Texans are already locked into the playoffs and know what their seedings are. Each already announced their starters would sit at least a portion of their final game of the season or will be sitting out completely. The Patriots, Giants and Titans are out of any playoff contention.
Only two games in Week 18 include teams where neither has any playoff stakes: Jags at Colts and Niners at Cardinals.
As McCaffrey also pointed out in his Sirius XM discussion with Bob Papa, there’s always a chance a team that rests its starters could beat its opponent trying to get into the playoffs. This is entirely possible in Week 18’s matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos.
By virtue of winning Christmas Day’s game against the Steelers, KC clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a first round bye that comes with it in the playoffs. Ahead of Week 18, HC Andy Reid confirmed several starters will not play in the final game of the regular season. That includes Mahomes & Kelce.
For the Broncos, this may seem like a great opportunity because they need to win for a chance to become the last wild card team in the AFC. But according to SI, the Chiefs plan to try out several players who “haven’t seen the field much, or at all, this season” and will play on Sunday. In the least, for KC fans it will give them a chance to see what these players can do in case they will be needed in the playoffs.
That leaves 8 games in Week 18 where one of the teams is out of playoff contention, but their opponent hasn’t yet clinched their playoff seeding. These all have tremendous playoff meaning and will make for a hectic final weekend:
Browns at Ravens
Panthers at Falcons
Commanders at Cowboys
Bears at Packers
Saint at Buccaneers
Seahawks at Rams
Chargers at Raiders
Dolphins at Jets.
And then there were 2… Obviously the biggest game of Week 18 will be the Sunday night showdown between the Vikings and Lions. Both teams in the NFC North Division are 14-2. The winner will get the No. 1 seeding and a first round bye in the playoffs. The loser will be the No. 5 NFC seed and start their playoffs as a wild card team. For Detroit, reeling from massive injuries on defense, a week of rest is just what the doctor would order…
But another game in Week 18 should be a nail biter and has big playoff implications for both teams: Bengals at Steelers. Pittsburgh is coming off a 3-game skid with losses to the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs by an average of 16 points. Word is there’s growing frustration in the locker room about these losses. Plus, the O-Line is struggling which is affecting their passing attack and is forcing turnover issues. They have clinched a playoff berth but if they win against Cincinnati and Baltimore loses to the Browns, the Steelers would win the AFC North division and clinch the No. 3 seed. If not, they will become the No. 5 AFC seed. Meanwhile, the Bengals have won their last 4 games and Joe Burrow is playing the best football of his career right now. Yes, Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh in Week 13 and the Bengals need the stars to align to make the playoffs, but this should be a fun one.
For a complete NFL Playoff Picture: https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture
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