NFL – 2024 WEEK 18 – STATS THAT STICK OUT

PASSING – (JUSTIN HERBERT QB, CHARGERS) LAC 34 at LV 20

When I made my 2024 NFL preseason predictions, I had the Chargers finishing second in the AFC West division behind the Chiefs (which did happen), but I did not pick them to make the post season.  I thought there would be some transition time under a new HC before real improvement would start for the team.  Well, Los Angeles finished the season with an 11-6 record and clinched a WC berth…  I must have had a lapse in judgment forgetting that this is Jim Harbaugh’s team now.  He’s brought success to every organization he’s been the head coach for and in some cases, in a short period of time.  Even going back to his very first head coaching job at the University of San Diego, Harbaugh helped the Toreros win consecutive championships the second and third years during his tenure as HC (2005 and 2006).  When he became HC at Stanford University in 2006, he took over a 1-11 team and helped them progress each season until they finished 2010 with the very first 11-win season in program history.  The Cardinals also won the Orange Bowl against VA Tech that same year.  It was the team’s first bowl win since 1996 and first BCS bowl victory ever. In 2011, Harbaugh became the HC for the San Fran 49ers and that season he turned a 4-12 team into 13-win team that won an NFC West Division title and made an appearance in the NFC Championship Game.  It was the first time the 49ers made the playoffs since 2002.  The next year (2012), Harbaugh brought the 49ers to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994…  He would transition back to college football in 2015 for a nine-year stint at his alma mater, the University of Michigan where he guided his Wolverines to a 74-25 record overall (53-17 in Big Ten games). In 2023, he led the team to an undefeated season and they won the College Football National Championship, its first since 1997.  Now in his first year with the Chargers, Harbaugh has taken a 5-12 team to 11 victories (their most since 2018) and to the playoffs… All that said, even more improvements could be made to the Chargers in the coming seasons to really kick things in high gear, particularly on offense.  While LA’s defense has become one of the best in the league this year, the offense has not advanced much under Harbaugh’s direction and seems to have regressed in passing.  Luckily, the Chargers offense is still being led by one of the most talented QBs in the league (Justin Herbert) who played his best football all year in the 3 weeks leading up to the playoffs.  Also, incredibly, the 26-year-old QB had only 3 interceptions all season long.  You read that right.  In 17 games: Herbert was picked off only a trio of times and went 11 games this year without throwing a pick.  That’s the most efficient Herbert’s been in his 5-year career.  He also finished the season with the highest career passer rating (101.7) ever.  He capped it off with his best game of the season in Week 18 when he helped the Chargers beat the Raiders on the road with 28 completions in 36 pass attempts for 346 yards and 2 TDs… So now that LA is on to the 2024 WC weekend, the team sits at the cusp of a new milestone.  If they beat Houston on Saturday and advance to the Divisional Championships, it’ll be the most successful season they’ve had since 2018.  Then Kansas City will await them.  It’ll be interesting to see how far the “Harbaugh Effect” will take the Chargers this season.

RUSHING – (JONATHAN TAYLOR RB, COLTS) JAX 23 at IND 26

One of the biggest stories coming out of the 2024 NFL season was the return of the bell cow running back…  In the mid-2010s, the league experienced a “passing boom”, peaking in 2015-6 when each season featured the highest amount of passing yards per game in league history.  According to the NFL’s Football Operations website, those same seasons saw the lowest rushing yards per game since 1999.  But since about 2020, there has been a consistent league-wide decline in offensive passing yardage and conversely, a rise in teams prioritizing running the football.  This culminated in the 2024 season when we saw 16 running backs rush for at least 1,000-yards– the most in any season since 2012.  Further, 10 of the 14 playoff teams will feature at least one of these 1K rushers which is the most since 2000.  And, according to ESPN, 5 of the top teams with the best point differential in 2024 all had at least a 1,000 yd rusher.  It’s only the fifth time in history this has happened and the first time since 2000.  Additionally, 6 players totaled 300+ rushing attempts, and 13 players had at least 10 rushing TDs. Only 1 of the 16 RBs to achieve 1,000+ yards were rookies.  Several were free agents at the start of the season including the rushing yards league-leader (Saquon Barkley, 2,005 yds) and second-place finisher Derrick Henry, 1,921 yds.  But only one of the 1K rushers racked up his yardage in less than 15 games and that was Colts RB Jonathan Taylor who missed Weeks 5-7 due to an ankle injury.  All told, Taylor had the fifth most carries in the league this year (303), the fourth most rushing yards (1,431), was ninth in TDs (11) and eleventh in yards per attempt (4.7).  It was his best season since 2021 when he finished the year with 332 attempts, 1,811 rush yards and 18 TDs, all most in the league.  As for this season, his best game came in Week 16 when the Colts played TN and were (at the time) fighting for a playoff spot.  But even after Indy was eliminated from the post season via Week 17’s loss to the Giants, the 25-year-old continued to fight for yardage.  In Week 18, Taylor was the league’s rushing leader with 34 carries for 177 yards and 1 TD including 33 yards on 6 straight carries in OT to help get the team in FG range and beat the Jaguars.  It was his fourth week in a row with 100 rushing yards and third straight week with at least 1 rushing TD.  His 34 carries were Taylor’s career best.  Safe to say, when the Colts gear up for 2025, the team will continue to count on him to get them yards on the ground as they hope to get even closer to the playoffs for the first time since 2020… So, what is causing the return of the run game in the NFL? It appears that offenses have learned to foil pass-heavy defensive scheming in the league with more modern game plans designed to be creative and utilize efficiency.  Another explanation may be that defensive players are struggling to contain the more physically fit and stronger-than-ever workhorse running backs in the league today.  Running backs are also more diverse than ever and have pass-catching abilities which tends to open offenses more and create balance.  In the end, the NFL is better overall when bell cow RBs are featured and I’m glad of it.

RECEIVING – (DRAKE LONDON WR, FALCONS) CAR 44 at ATL 38

Coming into the 2024 season, excitement was in the air for the Atlanta Falcons. After hiring a new coaching staff along with a new starting QB, drafting a rookie QB, and bringing several other exciting players into the fold, it was expected that the team would win the NFC South division and go to the playoffs.  But that scenario did not play out for the Falcons, unfortunately.  Atlanta finished the year with an 8-9 record, came in second place in the division and missed the playoffs for the seventh year in a row.  HC Raheem Morris admitted the team “was not good enough” after the Falcons fell to Carolina at home in Week 18.  He also said the day was “really disappointing”.  But there also was a sense of positivity, or at least the notion of going back to the drawing board and figuring things out for Morris.  “We have plenty of time to go back and correct the correctables (in 2025) and things that we need to do… I feel really good about the people who are in charge of doing those things. I feel really good about the people who are going to allow us to have success. I feel good about the additions that we will be able to make in the offseason to be able to help us. I feel good about the things we can do moving forward.”  I guess it’s easy for Morris to have that kind of zeal after falling short of big expectations in his first year as a HC when he has 3 amazing young players on offense about to break out individually, and together as a trio.  They are 22-year-old sophomore RB Bijan Robinson, 24-year-old rookie QB Michael Penix, and 23-year-old third year WR Drake London.  The 3 first-round draft picks already made history together in Week 18’s game when it was the first time an NFL team had a 300-yard passer, 175-yard receiver, and 150-yard rusher in 1 game, all under the age of 25. “These guys are superstars. They’re not good players — they’re superstars in the making,” Falcons defensive tackle and team captain Grady Jarrett said. “Excited to see them continue to grow and continue to blossom. … Those three guys are pillars for our team. They’re gonna score a lot of points, and I want to be part of that because they [are] about to really, really take the league by storm.”   A new era began for the Falcons with these 3 three players in Week 16 when the team decided to bench starting QB Kirk Cousins and go with Penix instead.  The young QB showed a lot of promise especially in Week 18 when he threw for 312 yards, had 2 TDs and connected with London 10 times.  London had 187 receiving yards and 2 TDs himself.  The former Trojan was super impressed with his QB in training when he said after Week17, “[Penix’s] an absolute dog and he stays poised. You may not see it, but he got that s— in his eyes for sure.”  For Robinson, who is now in his second year in the league, he finished the season as one of the (16) 1,000-yard running backs, ranked fourth in yards from scrimmage (1,887), third in rushing yards (1,456) and second in touches (365).  According to Next Gen Stats, he also “forced 177 missed tackles, the most in the NFL this season”.  Robinson got emotional after the Falcons season ended but he also realized the future potential of the young offense that just needs more reps together. “I’m ready to go. Like, I could play another season right now. It’s how fired up I am about what we have got,” Robinson said, “And I think that this offense and this team shows what we can do and how it’s supposed to be.”  Penix, the leader of the offense would agree. “It is going to come,” he said. “We’re going to continue to grow. With that connection, we will.”

DEFENSE – (TREY HENDRICKSON DE, BENGALS) CIN 19 AT PIT 17

It’s hard to believe the Cincinnati Bengals finished their 2024 campaign with a 9-8 record and missed the playoffs for the second year in a row especially when they had a trio of elite players who had monster seasons.  QB Joe Burrow had the best season of his Pro Bowl career finishing as the league’s leader in passing yards (4,918), TDs (43).  He was also named Best Passer of the year by PFF who according to their “wins above replacement metric” acknowledges him as “far and away the most valuable player in the league, worth 5.22 wins in 2024. The next closest player was Lamar Jackson at 3.86. In fact, Joe Burrow’s WAR number is the highest the league has seen since Tom Brady was worth 6.15 WAR in 2017. Patrick Mahomes in 2018 was the only other quarterback to be worth at least five wins during that stretch.”  Two other Bengals were named to the NFL’s coveted 2024 All-Pro First Team.  They include WR Ja’Marr Chase who finished the season as only the thirteenth “triple crown winner” in league history (and third man in this century) leading the league in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708) and receiving TDs (17).  The other 2024 All-Pro Bengal was DE Trey Hendrickson, the NFL’s sack champion (17.5) which tied his career high last year. The 6’4, 270-pound edge rusher also became the first player in franchise history to finish the season as the sack champion (he tied Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt in 2023).  Additionally, Hendrickson finished the season tied for the league-lead in QB pressures with 83.  “Both are tremendous honors,” said Hendrickson when asked what meant more between the sack title and All-Pro selection. “I try to play as hard as I can for as long as I can, and sack (titles) are out of my control. Being recognized as an All-Pro, I’m so grateful to be named and proud to do it for this city and this organization.”  The 8-year pro also ended the season with one of his best games in Week 18 when he recorded 5 tackles, 3.5 sacks (leading all players in a game this season) and 1 pass defended for which he was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week for the third time in his career… It’s a shame that Cincinnati couldn’t capitalize in 2024 from the performances of these players who are the peaks of their careers.  But the team already started making changes within days of being eliminated from the post season.  On Monday, they fired their defensive coordinator along with their linebackers coach, defensive line coach and offensive line coach.  HC Zach Taylor also acknowledged on Monday that another slow start to the season was detrimental for them. The Bengals won just 2 of their first 7 games in 2024 which they couldn’t recover from down the stretch. He said, “We’re all disappointed in the position that we put ourselves in.  It is unacceptable to start the way that we started… We have a lot of talent on this team.  It’s sickening that we’re not in the playoffs with an opportunity to keep this going… It’s on me as the head coach to make sure we come out of the offseason, we come out of training camp, ready to hit the ground running from game one.  Those aren’t things you can run from when you’re in my shoes.”  I have a feeling that if the Bengals don’t get off to a quicker start again in 2025, Zach Taylor won’t be returning for a sixth season as HC.  The team is 7-14-1 in September under his leadership.  

SPECIAL TEAMS – (CAMERON DICKER K, CHARGERS) LAC 34 at LV 20

One of the best kickers (and most reliable) in the league this year has been the Chargers’ Cameron Dicker.  He was named AFC Special Teams Player of the Week, his fourth career such accolade and second in a row (Weeks 17, 18).  He is the first back-to-back winner for any P.O.W. honor this season.  In Week 18, he helped Los Angeles clinch the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs by making 4 FGs and 2 PATs for a total of 14 points, tied for the most by any player during the week.  These totals brought him to 150 points on the year which set a single-season franchise record by a kicker.  His 39 FGs made in 2024 was also a career high for the 24-year-old.  All told, Dicker had a 92.9% FG and 91.7% PAT conversion rates in 2024.  Statistically speaking, he is the best kicker of the playoff teams aside from the Steelers’ Chris Boswell who is 41 of 44 in FGs made this season (93.2%).  He’s also 13-15 on FGs over 50 yards and 35-35 in PATs. And his longest FG made this season was 57 yards. Boswell was also named to the NFL’s All-Pro Team this week. (Interesting note about Boswell:  He is reportedly suffered from the flu this week and did not practice on Thursday before Saturday’s clash between the Ravens and Steelers.  He is expected to play…)  Also excellent this year was the Buccaneers’ Chase McLaughlin who went 30-32 in FGs made (93.8%), 8-10 over 50 yards and 54 of 56 in PATs (96.4%).  Known as “Money” by his teammates, he bettered his performance in 2023 which was his career best.  Another excellent kicker this year has been the Packers’ Brandon McManus who finished the regular season having made all 30 extra-point tries and all but one of his 21 field-goal attempts over his 11 appearances since joining the Packers in mid-October.  Wil Lutz of Denver also is another playoff kicker that had his best season in 2024 with 31 of 34 FGs made this year (91.2%) and is 46-46 for PATs.   The 8-year veteran Pro Bowler’s 31 FGs tied for the most single-season FGs made in franchise history.  Right behind him the Lions’ Jake Bates has done well this season as a rookie kicker making 26 of 29 FGs (89.7%) and 64 of 67 PATs (95.5%)… The playoff teams with the worst statistically performing kickers this season are ones we should take note of, as every point counts in the post season and every little detail matters.  One of these teams includes the Ravens.  Their kicker Justin Tucker surprisingly has only made about 73% of FGs this season (22-30).  He’s also only 6-11 for FGs over 50 yards.  Once considered one of the league’s most consistent kickers, he owns the record for longest FG made in NFL history (66-yards in 2021) and highest career FG percentage (90.5%).  But Tucker’s performance this season has dropped off considerably since 2023 (about 15%).  Obviously, he has the pedigree to be clutch and get the job done, but will the Ravens trust him this post season?  Another team to be concerned about with kickers is Philadelphia.  Jake Elliott has made only 28 of 36 FGs this year (77.8%) but has been good with PATs (97.9%).  Elliott’s 8 FG misses this year tied for the most misses by an Eagles kicker in over 30 years.  Perhaps more disturbing are his misses over 50 yards.  He’s only made 1 FG in this range out of 8 attempts, which is a league-worst 14% success rate from the distance since 2006.  One more note to make about him: Most of the Elliott’s misses have come at home at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.  His 71% success rate here is the lowest by an Eagles kicker since 1999.  Philly fans will likely be anxious every time he is called on to make a kick in Sunday’s wild card game when the Packers take on the Eagles at home… One last kicker of concern is the Vikings’ Will Reichard, a rookie who started the season well and finished around 80% with FGs made overall this season. But a quad injury midseason seems to have affected the 24-year-old’s performance as of late.  In the last 2 weeks (Week 17, 18), he has missed 3 FGs which might cause some concern for Minnesota. 

WILL A WILD CARD TEAM BREAK THROUGH IN 2024?

Hard to believe the 2024-25 NFL regular season has come to an end and the 2025 Super Bowl in New Orleans is only 4 weeks away now.  

It wasn’t a particularly good year for my team.  Ok, it was bad.  The 49ers had a very peculiar and disastrous season with a last place finish in the division and 6-11 record after going to the Super Bowl just 1 year ago.

I understand there’s not much one can do about extensive injuries.  But I wasn’t enamored with Kyle Shanahan’s coaching job this season.  He’s not currently on the hot seat, but it did get a little warm for him in my book… 

Still, I love football and look forward to finding out the answers to the biggest questions of this 2024-25 postseason.  One includes the big obvious: Can the Chiefs pull off the historic 3-pete Super Bowl?  

On paper, I don’t feel great about the KC Chiefs making history this year.  I don’t like the decline in offense or the kicker issues they’ve have.  And their defense while above average, is not as good as other team units in the playoffs.  Of course, this is the Chiefs, and luck seems to find them in every game.  Mahomes and Reid are also a lethal combo as we have discovered, plus they are getting back some offensive players from injury.  So, anything is possible with these Chiefs.  We can never count them out but our faith in them can waiver a bit, like it is for me this season.

Another question that lingers for me this season: Will this be a year a Wild Card team breaks through and wins a Super Bowl?  

Only 7 Wild Card teams in NFL history have ever raised a Lombardi Trophy: (Raiders 1980; Broncos 1997; Ravens 2000; Steelers 2005; Giants 2007; Packers 2020; Buccaneers 2020). 

So, what about the six 2024 WC candidates?  Are any good enough to get to the Super Bowl and win it?

In my opinion, it will be tough for the any of the WC teams to break through, but the best chances may be with the Vikings and Chargers.

Minnesota is a legit playoff team going 14-3 on the regular season.  They have a high-performing defense, QB Sam Darnold had a break-out year and he has incredible weapons to throw to.  The team will have to face the Rams in the WC round who they lost to in Week 8. But if they can get by LA and then get retribution for Week 18’s terrible loss in Detroit, the Cinderella story will continue for this team. (NOTE:  The Vikings have 4 Super Bowl appearances, but 0 wins.  The last time the team went to a SB was in 1976.)

I can’t ignore the “Harbaugh Effect” and how well QB Justin Herbert is playing well now after experiencing injury issues earlier in the season.  The defense is also humming, and they have an elite kicker.  Yes, the Chargers did go 0-3 against the AFC’s top 3 playoff seeds this season, but if all goes well for this team, a Super Bowl appearance for the first time since 1994 is possible. (NOTE: The Chargers have never won a Super Bowl and only had 1 appearance in 1994 when they lost to the 49ers. If they don’t make it this year, look out in 2025-26…)

OFFICIAL NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE:  https://www.nfl.com/standings/playoff-picture

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