This year’s field of 8 Belmont Stakes contenders could be divided right down the middle: 4 big talents plus 4 on the rise.

Taking the top four first, they are each extraordinary thoroughbreds.  It’s a real treat to witness them competing against one another in this race.  They may prove to be the top of a very good three-year class we are witnessing in 2025.

First, there’s SOVEREIGNTY, the winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby.  When he overtook JOURNALISM down the stretch on the slop… it was absolute perfection.  His connections decided to sit him out of the Preakness and bring him in fresh to the Belmont.

Then there’s JOURNALISM who came in second in the Derby to Sovereignty, but then two weeks later won the Preakness Stakes by bumping and grinding his way through traffic and accelerating over the leader at the finish.  From all indications, he bounced back well from that race and is ready to face off against Sovereignty for his revenge.

BAEZA came in third at the Kentucky Derby in impressive fashion, almost overtaking Journalism at the finish line.  He’s also half-brother to DORNOCH who won the 2024 Belmont Stakes and half-brother to MAGE who won the 2023 Kentucky Derby.  The talent is immense here.  Baeza has the ability to upset both Sovereignty and Journalism.  What a great rest of the racing season we would have if this scenario came together.  Just think if we had the 1, 2, 3 top finishers of the Kentucky Derby each have a Triple Crown win…

To round out the top 4, we have the Bob Baffert trained RODRIGUEZ who took the field at this year’s WOOD MEMORIAL gate to wire and was a favorite to win the Kentucky Derby before he scratched out days before the race.  Now healed up, this son of AUTHENTIC (who won the 2020 Kentucky Derby) is out to prove he can beat those he should have met at the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.  

The other 4 talents are not to be taken lightly.  They may not be in the same league as the others, but a couple could make noise:

Take HILL ROAD, the Chad Brown trainee who will have IRAD ORTIZ JR. in the stirrups.  This son of QUALITY ROAD won the Peter Pan in May in impressive fashion.  And, he’s got the stamina to face this test.  But a big concern is his running style which is as a closer.  He’ll need a fast pace up front to set him up against the other heavy hitters and he may not get it in this one.

There’s also CRUDO, the Todd Pletcher colt whose sire is JUSTIFY (won the 2018 Triple Crown).  Pletcher thinks he’s got the talent, but as a lightly raced colt who did not face competition as a two-year old, there is concern he may not be “seasoned” enough as Pletcher has admitted.  Still, the colt, who is co-owned by celebrity chef BOBBY FLAY, has won his last two races by a combined 14.5 lengths.  Granted, the competition was not close to the group in this race, but it likely swayed the connections to enter him here.

Pletcher also brings to the race UNCAGED, the CURLIN colt co-owned by MIKE REPOLE who is also lightly raced and did not fare as well in the Peter Pan, coming in sixth behind HILL ROAD.  Honestly, he doesn’t belong in this company, but the owner likes to “take a shot” with horses and see if something comes of it. 

Finally, we have HEART OF HONOR, who came in second at the UAE Derby and fifth in the Preakness.  This is an international horse that seems to be a tier below our big talents here. The trainer has also said he can be a handful in the gate. But if he gets a good break and the race sets up for him, he may make some noise.  He had excellent late pace figures in the Preakness which bodes well for him.  

The consensus amongst pro handicappers I follow think the race will be on the slower side. Like the Kentucky Derby that would have set up with RODRIGUEZ on the lead (if he did not scratch out), he will either have his way with the pace and wire the field or he will be run down by Journalism, Sovereignty or Baeza.  

Either way, a slower pace would favor front-runners or those forwardly placed like BAEZA.  JOURNALISM is also a stalking type of horse, so the pace setup would likely work for him.  SOVEREIGNTY is also one that likes to sit mid-pack.

Bottomline is I think the top 4 talents are likely to be the top 4 finishers.  What order they end up in is the real question here.  But, my head is going with Baeza while my heart is with Journalism.  

I was so impressed with Journalism’s Preakness win and the guts he showed in the Derby before getting run down by Sovereignty.  I hope he gets his revenge and wins this race.  What is favorable for him is the outside post (#7).  He’s a horse who needs space to get into his gears and (hopefully) will not be stuck in traffic as his jockey always seems to find him in.

However, he could potentially be tired from 2 huge races within the last 5 weeks prior to this one while Baeza, Sovereignty and Rodriguez are coming in fresh.  That’s why I don’t favor him in this race. Hope I’m wrong…

THE PICKS

BAEZA

SOVEREIGNTY

JOURNALISM

RODRIGUEZ

CRUDO

HILL ROAD

HEART OF HONOR

UNCAGED

HOW TO WATCH

The 2025 Belmont Stakes will be held on Saturday, June 7 at Saratoga Racecourse in NY for the second consecutive year as Belmont Park undergoes renovations. Rather than the traditional 1.5 miles, this version of the Belmont will be raced at 1.25 miles.

POST TIME IS 7:04PM ET ON FOX/FS1.  Coverage starts 2:30pm ET on FOX.