HORSE RACING – 2018 KENTUCKY DERBY PREVIEW & SPEED FIGURE SURVEY

It’s been one month since I first assessed the potential field to run in the 2018 Kentucky Derby.  At the time, we were still in the midst of the Championship Season with several important prep races to go.

Since then, new competitors have burst on to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard and at least one of the favorites is out due to injury (McKinzie).

But, the general consensus is that we will be witnessing one of the most competitive, deep fields in many years.  Perhaps ever.

The quality and talent level is so exceptional, that some have even said this group, “is the best” they’ve ever seen.

Needless to say, we will have our work cut out for us in handicapping this one…

In points order below is a list of the 20 Derby contenders with an updated evaluation by me.  Right before the Derby, I will post my picks and an annual handicapping cheat sheet for you to take to your Derby party with you.

So, let’s have some fun getting to know the current field for the 2018 Kentucky Derby:

1 – MAGNUM MOON– Since my last posting, this Todd Pletcher-trained colt won the Arkansas Derby on April 14 and now posts a 4-0 record at 3 different tracks.  But, remember, he did not race as a 2-year old. And, as no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without a start as a 2-year-old, it puts this horse at a decisive disadvantage.  On the plus side, he has the pedigree, speed, stamina and riding style to make him a first-class contender.  Post Position will be especially key for a horse like this whose first race will have been less than four months before the Derby.  If he posts from 1 or 17, I may be out on this one.  But, if not, I like this one’s talent.  (Fun fact: Magnum Moon’s half-brother Orb posted from 16 when he won the 2013 Kentucky Derby.)

2 – GOOD MAGIC– The last assessment I did of this Curlin colt was one of ambivalence.  He had won big at the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile in Nov which helped him garner the Eclipse Award for 2-year-old juvenile male.  But, he regressed at his fourth career start when he placed third at the Fountain of Youth in March with a diminished speed figure.   So, all eyes were on him in the Blue Grass Stakes earlier this month at Keeneland.  He did not disappoint this time and came away with a 1.5 length win over the 15-horse field.  Chad Brown, his accomplished trainer, thinks he is “one of the main [Derby] contenders” and is confident about the way this horse has been training.  He said he also liked the way he fought to win the Blue Grass in a crowded field (an experience that could pay off big at Churchill Downs).  (Betting fact:  This horse may bring a good price since he may be overlooked by the deep field. Should keep an eye on his betting odds.)

3 – AUDIBLE– There was nice buzz the last time we checked in on this (4-1) Todd Pletcher-trained and NY-bred colt,  about his Holy Bull Stakes 5.5 lengths win in February and his impressive 105 BRIS speed figure.  Well, he came out even better at the Florida Derby on March 31 with another superb win and an improved 107 BRIS speed figure.  He also made up 10 lengths off the pace during this race and ran way out wide in the first turn, yet managed to beat the competition by 3 lengths. This now makes 4 straight wins for this colt, his fourth triple-digit number from 5 starts and he has beaten competitors by a total of 20 lengths in his last 4.  The only continuing questions for him as mentioned in the last posting is stamina and distance in his pedigree.  (Although, his emphatic win in Florida does give some confidence he can handle the 1 ¼ mile at the Derby.) He will also be ridden by Javier Castellano who has failed to place better than fourth in 11 Derby appearances.  Still, I think this will be one of the favorites and has posted a top Beyer Speed Figure of 99 in his last race.

4 – NOBLE INDY– Amazingly, a third Todd Pletcher-trained colt in this Derby field.  This one has a 3-1 record and was not on my radar at the time of the last posting without any significant wins.  Since then, he won the Louisiana Derby by a neck and showed fight after he lost the lead.  This is an improvement over his third-place finish at the Risen Star in Feb where he also had the early lead, but was unable to rally for the win.  The big knock on this horse is his “aggressiveness” early in races.  His natural inclination to do battle with another before the second turn is not necessarily a good trait for a crowded field of 20 which could peter him out early. And, there are concerns about stamina in his pedigree.  Definitely talented, but perhaps not a front runner for the Derby.  Ranked as the fourth best of the four Pletcher colts IMO.  May need some more maturity. 

5 – VINO ROSSO – Ok, I promise this is the last Todd Pletcher-trained colt we’ll talk about. (His Derby prodigies just all happened to be top 5 points qualifiers).  I’ve seen several pro handicappers like this (3-5) son of Curlin for a long-shot, especially after he won the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial by 3 lengths earlier this month (and was bumped along the way).  This is an improvement from his third-place finish at the Sam F. Davis Stakes in Feb and fourth at the Tampa Bay Derby in March.  Also, Pletcher thinks this horse’s pedigree suggests more distance which is a good sign for the 1 ¼ mile at the Derby and 1 ½ mile Belmont Stakes in June.   Another thing going for him is speed and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez who rode to victory under Pletcher last year on Always Dreaming.

6 – BOLT D’ORO– Since we last delved into analyzing this Mike Ruis trained horse, he was thought of as one of the early favorites.  And, despite a second-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby on April 2 to Justify, he’s still considered a front-runner as we head closer to the big show.  He’s got all the makings of a Triple Crown winner: Pedigree, speed, stamina, racing style, proven ability to fight back from adversity, and a premiere rider in jockey Victor Espinoza (rode American Pharoah to Triple Crown fame in 2015). Yet, I have a bit of a hesitation to say he’s my favorite as he hasn’t truly finished first in a race since September.  (Technically, he has a first-place finish at the San Felipe Stakes b/c McKinzie was disqualified.)  I also have a bit of hesitation with Mike Ruis.  No disrespect intended, it’s just the lack of experience with his barn that I am concerned about.  All in all, though, it does appear that Ruis has this horse peaking at the right time.

7 – ENTICED– Following up on the previous notations I made about this horse, he is owned by Godolphin Racing (company founded by the Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai) and trained by the 57-year-old American Kiaran McLaughlin who has yet to saddle a Kentucky Derby winner in 7 tries (best finish in 2005 with second place Closing Argument).  The dark bay colt is considered to be a very good racehorse with elite pedigree, but there are still questions about him and his second-place finish at the Wood Memorial earlier this month did not help answer them. While he impressed at the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in Nov and won the Gotham Stakes in March, he sprinkled in between a fourth-place finish at the Holy Bull in Feb and had that second at the Wood.  Still, he knows how to win in Kentucky and I do see this colt’s name on several pro handicappers top 10 lists.  This one sticks out for me as a long shot.

8 – MENDELSSOHN– I had my eye on this Kentucky born, European-trained colt even before he absolutely destroyed the competition by 18 ¾ lengths and broke the track record by 2.27 seconds at the UAE Derby (Dubai) on March 31.  (Watch it, if you haven’t.  Shades of Secretariat.) Trained by the Irish genius Aidan O’Brien, there seems to be something special about this half-brother to four-time champion Beholder.  Beyond the three straight wins, this horse has raced mostly on turf, but bred for the dirt and obviously, he was outstanding in Dubai.  The mystery surrounding this one (and there seems to be one for every horse in the field) is that none of the 9 UAE Derby winning horses that have come to the Kentucky Derby has ever done better than sixth place.  Well, I don’t care.  I love this horse and he might be my unofficial favorite in the field at the moment.

9 – JUSTIFY– Another three-year old colt that has the Apollo Curse following him (never raced as a two-year old).  But most handicappers seem to throw that fact out the window when it comes to this horse.  He’s shown nothing but brilliance during his short 3-race career so far.  All the gushing comes from the fact that of his 3 starts, he’s romped the competition, has been very fast and only got better with every race.  In fact, he scored a 103 Equibase Speed Figure during his debut, improved to 108 in his second race and matched his 108 on April 7 when he beat out Bolt d’Oro fair and square at the Santa Anita Derby.  With those kinds of numbers and being so green, there is confidence that he’ll only get better from there and peak at the Derby. Bob Baffert plans to put Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in the saddle, a lethal combo of trainer and rider.   The only real issue on Derby Day is his inexperience.  How will “big red” handle all the hype and a very crowded field? 

10 – FLAMEAWAY– In my first article showcasing the best on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, I discussed the fascinating story of this Canadian-bred Mark Casse-trained colt.  At 5-9 overall, he’s been tried on every different surface, every different running style, and won on wet and dry tracks.  All this racing versatility and experience are good assets to have in addition to a steadfast, calm personality and outward maturity from 2 to 3 years old. Further, he has shown to battle in races and is a hard worker.  Combined, these are all good traits to have for the very challenging Kentucky Derby. The big question is his ability to get the distance of 1 ¼ miles.  He’ll definitely show up and contend, but there’s doubt if he can handle that distance.

11 – SOLOMINI– This is an interesting Curlin colt trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Zayat Stables (American Pharoah fame). I’ve seen this one mentioned in long shot picks because he has never finished “off the board” in 6 lifetime starts, seems to like a stretch run like the Kentucky Derby, and has competed against some of the best in this same field his last 4 races.   He certainly has the talent, experience, consistency and shows up at every race.  But, I’m not onboard yet with this colt because of his record (1-3-2) and word that he is not known to like training and still shows immaturity during races.  The big question with this one is will he continue to be a bridesmaid, or will his assets give him an edge to place in this tough test.  I’m not convinced looking at his speed figures which have only been so-so.

12 – BRAVAZO– Since we last checked in on this four-time Derby winning D. Wayne Lukas-trained colt, he was 2-2 on the year and preparing for the Louisiana Derby after his Feb upset win at the Risen Star.  Unfortunately, the dark bay colt laid an egg and finished eighth at Fair Grounds Race Course with no real explanation given by his barn.  Now, he comes into the Kentucky Derby with a six-week layoff, but good works have been reported since then.  He will be ridden by the 55-year old Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, but overall, expectations are not very high for Bravazo.  He has the distance and likes to be in the front, but his lack of speed as compared to the frontrunners will likely be too much for this one to overcome.

13- MY BOY JACK– This colt has been described as “Exaggerator 2.0” and has the same style of that Triple Crown running horse and trained and rode by the same pair of Desormeaux brothers.  So, if you know anything about Exaggerator, you’ll know that he was an exciting closer like this colt.  Finishing third in the Louisiana Derby, Jack proved he could run fast on a dry dirt track, still contend even running way out wide in the final turn, and come on strong at the finish.  Like his doppelganger, he has shown to excel on a sloppy track which Churchill Downs has a good chance of being on Derby Day.  Closers are not the favored style to win the Kentucky Derby, but handicappers seem to like him to bet on.  I am concerned that he needs a great trip to have the speed and fight with faster horses.

14 – PROMISES FULFILLED– This Dale Romans-trained horse likes to be a frontrunner and so, we expect to see him on the lead at some point during the Kentucky Derby. Hopefully he doesn’t tucker himself out too much like he did at the Florida Derby in late March, when an early pace battle took place with Strike Power.  Both wound up bombing out with Promises finishing eighth.  Since the Kentucky Derby is setting up to be a bit faster pace this year, it is likely that Romans learned his lesson and will keep his Shackleford colt in check.  Not many handicappers seem to think this one will really contend. Vegas currently has him at 50/1 odds.

15 – FREE DROP BILLY– This certainly is an experienced three-year old colt with a record of 8 starts – 2 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds, 1 ninth.  He also has excellent pedigree for the distance of the Derby (his sire – Union Rags won the 2012 Belmont Stakes) and looked promising in Oct when he won the Breeder’s Cup Futurity.  But, he has not seemed to mature into a colt that can stand up to tough competition and his speed doesn’t measure up to the front runners in this race.  He’s trained by Dale Romans who has said that the colt tends to get “lathered up” before races, but lately he’s been playful, which is a good sign.  This colt will likely go to the front (his preferred racing style).  Though, most experts think he’ll likely be overtaken by the “stalkers” that will flank him and end up finishing middle of the pack.

16 – LONE SAILOR– Like My Boy Jack, this colt likes to race off the pace and his last start at the Louisiana Derby in March was impressive like Jack’s.   Both of these colts battled from the back of the pack to finish second by a half-length (Sailor) and third (Jack).  For Sailor, he’s trained by Tom Amoss, the 56-year old based in New Orleans and winless at the Kentucky Derby. He recently indicated that this colt is growing mentally: “[he’s] really starting to understand competition and how to fight”.  While Sailor will not likely contend at the Derby, it will be an emotional race for his connections because co-owner, Tom Benson (owner of the New Orleans Saints) died on March 15 at the age of 90, less than a week before the Louisiana Derby.

17 – HOFBURG– There’s some enthusiasm for this Tapit colt, but I’m not sure it’s warranted at this point in his career to make him a serious Derby contender for me.  Being the lightest raced horse in the field (3 lifetime starts) and a late bloomer (he was taken out of competition for 6 months), it doesn’t instill a lot of confidence.  Also, his trainer, Bill Mott, is 0 for 7 in the Derby with his best finishing horse in 1998 (Favorite Trick– eighth).  And, his jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has only two starts at the Derby and did not finish better than eleventh.  Not to knock him completely, but the early speed hasn’t been there either for me to think he’ll challenge the big boys.  On the plus side, Mott has said Hofburg has “a very efficient way of moving” (helpful for the distance), he’s raced in larger fields than most (helpful for a crowd of 20), and he has handled adversity relatively well.  This colt’s connections think he will continue to take a step forward and he’ll need to in order to succeed at Churchill Downs.

18 – FIRENZE FIRE– There’s not a lot going for this colt in the Triple Crown Races.  His pedigree and 4 wins (at 8 furlongs or less) suggest he’s best as a sprinter. He’ll also have jockey Paco Lopez on his back who will be making his first Derby start.  It’ll also be the first Derby for trainer Jason Servisand his owner’s stables.  His racing style is not ideal (closer) when he may lack a certain stamina for this race.  But, he did finish second at the Withers in Feb which was a 1 1/8-mile race.  Vegas currently has him at 40/1 odds (Bovada).

19 – COMBATANT– This son of Scat Daddy (Mendelssohn, Justify, Flameaway) got the nod when Quip withdrew last week.  He’s not likely to give trainer Steve Asmussen the win, but he’s an experienced (7 starts), quality horse who broke his maiden in his second start at Churchill Downs last Oct.  Since then, the bay colt has been beaten by competition in this field and his last race, the Arkansas Derby on April 14, saw him come in fourth. His odds are 50/1 at this point, but I think those could be slightly better as he’s shown signs of improvement and has not had racing luck in the past (post positions). (Pedigree fact:  Combatant makes it 4 sons of Scat Daddy to start in the Kentucky Derby.  Unfortunately, the influential sire passed away suddenly in 2015 at 11 years old to a cardiac event.)

20 – INSTILLED REGARD– With the departure of Gronkowski last week to an infection, this Jerry Hollendorfer-trained colt came off the bubble.  He has had 7 starts – 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third, and 2 fourths which is not bad, considering the California-based colt faced tough competition after he started his 3-year old career.  He also has plenty of stamina in his pedigree to handle the distance which bodes well for his running style (stalk/close).  But, he hasn’t yet shown he could be a real threat to top horses and this competition might be too tough for him unless he shows major improvement very quickly.

THE SPEED TEST

There is an argument that exists among handicappers and experts about how much prior speed figures are important when handicapping the Kentucky Derby.

Personally, I find it a useful tool and it helps me to understand which horses may be peaking now.  If, for example, some horses showed up extremely well last year but their speed numbers and results regressed recently, they will fall out of favor in my mind.

It’s along the same idea that Ryder Cup captains may face when picking their teams.  Just because a golfer may have had success in the past, it doesn’t mean he’s playing well now.

As a caveat, I understand that a particular horse (or golfer) could have the performance of their lifetime even though their stats indicate otherwise.  Again, speed figures are just a tool that helps me assess these amazing thoroughbreds from a distance.

With that in mind, I found out which horses have documented improvement from their last three races (based on a mixture of Equibase information and a great article from Horse Racing Nation).  The list is below.  Do with this information what you may:

• Audible
• Bolt d’Oro
• Combatant
• Flameaway^
• Hofburg
• Instilled Regard^
• Justify
• Lone Sailor
• Magnum Moon^
• Mendelssohn*
• Noble Indy
• Vino Rosso”.

^The numbers were so close, I’ve included these horses.  At least from third to second races, there was improvement and the last race was very close.

*Mendelssohn only raced on dirt in one prep race (UAE Derby in March).  So, no prior Beyer or Brisnet figures are available.  However, Timeform US Speed Figures showed improvement.

“Vino Rosso has not had a steady improvement over his last three, but his last race was a big move up from his second back.

Finally, I’ve listed below the fastest horses in the field (scored a 94+ Beyer Speed Figure in one of their last three races).  Those in bold have also shown steady improvement.  The winner of the Kentucky Derby (statistically) has a good chance to come from this list:

• Audible
• Bolt d’Oro
• Good Magic
• Hofburg
• Justify
• Lone Sailor
• Magnum Moon
• Mendelssohn
• Noble Indy
• Vino Rosso.

 

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