MLB – THE PLAYERS I WOULD VOTE FOR ON THE 2019 HALL OF FAME BALLOT

On Tuesday (January 22), the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) will announce which of the thirty-five recently retired MLB players included on the 2019 Hall of Fame ballot will be elected into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in July.  

Each BBWAA voter can choose no more than ten players on their ballots. The candidates who receive at least 75% of the collective vote will be inducted into Cooperstown.  

Now, I’m not a member of the BBWAA.  But that won’t stop me from telling you which players would get a vote on my 2019 Hall of Fame ballot (if I had one).  I’m going to do that below, but first a couple of disclaimers:

My opinion leans heavily on the notion of which candidates had the best career “WAR” of those eligible on the ballot.  WAR or “Wins Above Replacement” refers to the number of wins a player added through their performance to their team.  It’s a valuable sabermetric which helps us put in perspective the contribution a player made during his career and provides helpful comparisons to other players in the history of the sport.  For more in-depth description, see the 2010 Fan Graphs article on the topic. 

I also support eligible contenders which I feel have been victimized by the vagueness of the “character clause”, a paragraph in the BBWAA Election Rules which states voting shall be based on criteria including “integrity” and “character” without further description.  These odd conditions have promoted idiosyncratic justifications from members of the BBWAA to keep out players suspected of PED use but those who never tested positive or have been censured by MLB with regards to PEDs.  Fact is, the league ignored steroid abuse before the January 2004 Drug Policy was introduced.  I wrote extensively about this issue in 2012 and 2013 when Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens first appeared on HOF ballots and were snubbed.

MY PICKS FOR THE 2019 HALL OF FAME

1.  Barry Bonds

Here’s the only stat you need to know: Barry Bonds is #1 among position players in the history of the game in WAR (162.8).  That means his career performance surpassed the value of Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski and Cal Ripken, among others.  Think about that: Bonds’ performance added 162 wins to his team (above what a replacement player would add).   A full season.  He’s one of only two retired players (Alex Rodriguez-#12) in the top twenty-five NOT in the Hall of Fame.  He also holds the career home run record with 762, was a seven-time National League Most Valuable Player (a record), fourteen time All-Star, won twelve Silver Slugger awards, eight Gold Gloves, had a career on-base percentage of .444, holds the record for most career walks and most home runs in a single season (73, set in 2001). According to a HOF Ballot Tracker, Bonds is hovering around the 73.4% mark which is a major jump from last year during his sixth year of eligibility (56.4%), but likely not enough for induction this year.  The 22-year baseball veteran will only have three more years to get into the Hall.  At least this is encouraging news – In 2013 the BBWAA did not vote any inductees into the Hall out of protest of his landing on the ballot along with Clemens and Sosa.

2.  Roger Clemens

Here’s another stat you need to know: Roger Clemens is #3 among pitchers in the history of the game in WAR (139.0) only behind Cy Young (170.0) and Walter Johnson (152.6).  He’s also the only retired player in the top twenty-two NOT in the Hall. Statistically, in 24 seasons for four teams, Clemens earned 7 Cy Young Awards (more than any other pitcher in history), 354 wins (9th all-time), a 3.12 ERA, 4,672 strike outs (third most in history), was an eleven time All Star and two-time World Series Champion.  Interestingly, the aforementioned HOF Baseball Tracker is predicting that fellow Yankees pitcher Mike Mussina will have enough votes (82.1%) to get into the HOF over Clemens this year. Mussina’s WAR is only 82.9 in comparison and he’s been eligible one less year.  That’s a 56.1-win difference.  In 18 years, Mussina had a nice career, but he’s not in the same league as Clemens and was nowhere near as dominant.  Mussina won 270 games (33rd all-time), 2,813 strikeouts (19th most in history), was a seven-time Gold Glove winner, but never once garnered the Cy Young award.  I would not vote him into the HOF until Clemens gets in who I think deserves it more.  I also would leave off Curt Schilling for the same reason. He may have one of the best strikeout to walk ratios of the Modern Era, was a great post-season pitcher and known for excellent defense, but after a twenty-year career, he ranks 26th all-time in WAR (80.6), 85th in career wins (216), 15th in strikeouts (3,116) and no Cy Young Awards to his name.  As for Clemens and steroid allegations, he never once tested positive and never was suspended for PEDs.  Similar to Bonds, Clemens is coming in about 73.9% on the HOF Tracker, up from 57.3% last year.  And, like Bonds, he has only three more years to get in to Cooperstown, where he deserves to be..

3. Mariano Rivera

True, I am a lifelong Yankees fan and probably saw most of the games that Rivera pitched in, especially during the post-season.  I reveled in hearing “Sandman” play when the greatest closer of all time jogged out to the mound late into games.  And, I love the fact that he wiped out hitters with one pitch, the cut fastball.  “You know what’s coming,” Seattle Mariners designated-hitter Mike Sweeney once told SI about hitting against Rivera, “but you know what’s coming in horror movies, too.”  But, I just can’t get over the 8-1 record with an 0.70 ERA and 42 saves in 141 post-season innings (the best in MLB history).  He also has the all-time saves record (652) and 205 ERA+ (a ballpark adjusted metric in which 100 is the league average).  The next closest guy?  Clayton Kershaw with 159 ERA+… Rivera is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and will get in this year.  Maybe he’ll even be a unanimous pick.

4.  Roy Halladay

If not for his posthumous nomination to the Hall, starting pitcher Roy Halladay might not be a first ballot Hall of Famer.  But, that will likely happen next week.  I think he would eventually get in, but after his premature death in a plane crash last year, the event upped the ante on the legacy of his brilliant career.  During his sixteen-years on the mound, “Doc” earned two Cy Young Awards (one in the AL in 2003 and the other in NL in 2010) along with a regular season perfect game (May 29, 2010) and a postseason no-hitter (October 6, 2010, just the second in MLB history). Neither Schilling nor Mussina have any of those accolades in their repertoires.  Halladay’s 131 ERA+ is also better than both (Schilling – 127) and (Mussina – 123).  He also had 203 wins in 416 career games and a career 3.38 ERA.  Standing at 6-foot-6, he was a great performer in the post season with a 2.37 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 35 strikeouts against four unintentional walks in 38 innings.  Statistically, he does stack up with the other names on the ballot and is a clear Hall of Famer, just sped up a bit under tragic circumstances.    

5.  Edgar Martinez

This is the 10th and final season of HOF eligibility for career Seattle Mariners designated hitter, Edgar Martinez.  Unfortunately, being a DH is seen as a knock by the BBWAA who have let him sit on the ballot all these years.  But, his uber-talent for the big stick cannot be denied.  During his 18-year career, Martinez batted .312 and hit .300 or better seven straight years (1995-2001).  He also averaged 110 RBIs per season in that span, was a six time All Star, won four Silver Sluggers as a full-time DH (1995-2004) and MLB even named the award for Outstanding Designated Hitter after him.  On many lists, he is considered the greatest DH of all time.  With David Ortiz retiring in 2016, this helps Martinez’s cause for the Hall and I think he’s finally getting in this time.  

6.  Larry Walker

This Canadian’s chances are dwindling for the HOF. It’s his ninth year on the ballot and he only has next year to get in.  I’m not sure why only thirty-four percent of voters liked him to make it to Cooperstown last year.  His career was amazing.  In seventeen seasons (six with the Expos, ten with the Rockies and two with the Cardinals), Walker had a .313 batting average, .400 on-base percentage, .565 slugging percentage, 383 home runs, 1,311 RBIs, 2,160 hits, 471 doubles and 230 stolen bases.  He is also one of only three players in history to  rank within the top 100 of batting runs, base running runs, and defensive runs saved (Barry Bonds and Willie Mays).  He won three NL batting championships, was a five-time All Star, won seven Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers and was the 1997 NL MVP.  

Presumably, members of the BBWAA think the mile-high thin, dry air at Coors Field in Denver helped boost the baseballs going out of the stadium where Walker played for ten years and boosted his batting average in the process.  After Walker moved on from Denver, the team installed a room-sized humidor to store the balls in and since then, the number of home runs at Coors Field have evened-out.  Still, I don’t think it’s fair for the BBWAA to diminish Walker’s record based on something that can’t be proved and was never dealt with at the time.  Not to mention – in 1997 when he was the NL MVP, Walker hit .346/.443/.733 with 29 home runs in 75 road games.  Essentially, he did better on the road than at home that season.  How was this a product of Coors Field?  Here’s a hint:  It wasn’t. Walker was the full package: a great hitter, a speedy base runner and excellent outfielder with a big arm.  Maybe he was just an above-average player? Yeah. He deserves to be acknowledged for it.

For a full list of 2019 HOF candidates and their bios, see the National Baseball Hall of Fame website.

UPDATE: On January 22, 2019, MLB announced that Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez and Mike Mussina were elected to the Baseball HOF Class of 2019.

UPDATE: On January 21, 2020, MLB announced that Larry Walker was elected to the Baseball HOF Class of 2020 along with Derek Jeter.

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Sources :

Baseball Reference.com Pitchers WAR : https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_pitch_career.shtml
Baseball Reference.com Position Player WAR: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_bat_career.shtml
Official Hall of Fame Ballot 2019: https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2019.shtml

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