HORSE RACING – PEGASUS WORLD CUP INVITATIONAL 2019 PREVIEW
All eyes will be on Gulfstream Park in South Florida this Saturday (Jan 26) when the third annual running of the prestigious Pegasus World Cup Invitational will take place. The $9 million purse makes it the richest race in North America and it will feature twelve competitors 4 years old and up on dirt at a mile and an eighth.
Arrogate won it in 2017 by five lengths and Gun Runner fended off West Coast for the victory in 2018. This year’s headliners include the two best older dirt males at the moment – Accelerate (Finalist for 2018 Horse of the Year Award in his last career race) and City of Light (the only horse to beat Accelerate since 2017 also in his final career race). We’ll also witness Gunnevera try to win his first Grade 1 contest (the only five-year-old from the 2017 Kentucky Derby campaign still racing) and see the comeback kid Audible (third at the 2018 Kentucky Derby) take his shot at glory. TV Coverage starts at 4:30pm ET on NBC.
The weather forecast is tricky for Saturday at Hallandale Beach. Showers are predicted on and off during the day and possibly, at post time (5:35pm). I’ll factor that into my picks, but let’s first take a look at the field, by post position with morning-line odds.
PEGASUS WORLD CUP 2019 FIELD
1. BRAVAZO– (12-1). This four-year-old hard worker is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and has had a nice career so far, competing in all three 2018 Triple Crown Races (was second to Justify at the Preakness) and five additional Grade 1 contests last season. Most recently, he finished second at the Clark Handicap in Nov. For this race, he’s a fascinating one that definitely belongs in this competition and has the right racing style for the track. But, he may not be good enough to fend off the most talented in the field. Still, I think he’ll finish somewhere in the top six. May be a good one to add to the exotics.
2. SOMETHING AWESOME– (20-1). An eight-year old gelding owned by the Stronach Group, he really has no chance to place. Having never raced at a G1 level before, this is a step up in competition for the bay colt that spent a lot of his early career on synthetic. I see him hanging in with the middle of the pack and then coming in eighth or ninth. But, if it does rain, he could do better. He seems to like a wet track and even had a couple of wins earlier in his career on the slop.
3. CITY OF LIGHT– (5-2). One of the top two fastest horses in the field along with Accelerate, this five-year-old convincingly beat out Seeking the Soul and Bravazo at the Breeder’s Cup Mile in Nov and word is that he’s looked “extremely sharp” in his workouts leading up to this race. He may be the only real threat to beat Accelerate who is posted two doors down at #5. His major asset is the distance (just over a mile) which may be his sweet spot. Add in the factor of a speedy race track and flexible running style (pace setter/stalker), I am liking this one to finish either first or second.
4. SEEKING THE SOUL– (12-1). He’s six-years-old, experienced at this distance, and up for the challenge, having recently finished third in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap behind Leofric and Bravazo. He also competed in last year’s Pegasus where he finished fifth with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez on board. This year, Velazquez will be along for the ride again. I just don’t see this one making a dent on the top five this year. If any closer will win this race or do well, I think it’ll be Gunnevera, not this colt.
5. ACCELERATE– (9-5). This six-year old has won his last four races in a row, all Grade 1 and all with Equibase Speed Figures over 120. He’s an outstanding race horse with speed and a good post position and seems to be the favorite of most handicappers. The only knock I can think of is the fact that Accelerate only shipped twice in his career to race outside of California. One of those races was at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas where he finished second to City of Light last April. In retrospect, it might not mean much since he shipped to Churchill Downs in Nov just fine and won the Breeder’s Cup Classic. But, it is something to take note of.
6. TOM’S D’ETAT– (20-1). An extreme long-shot six-year-old but could pay big if he fulfills the potential the racing world (and his owner Gayle Benson – who also owns the New Orleans Saints) seems to think he has. He only raced once in 2018 due to ankle problems and had a couple of Allowance races in 2017. However, the times he has been on the race track, potential to upset has been flashed. He’s also put down some good workouts this season and is considered a good, well-bred race horse with heart and tactical speed, an important attribute to do well at Gulfstream Park. No one really knows how good Tom’s d’Etat is, or how well he’ll do. But, if you have the extra cash to place some exotics, it may be a good idea to include this one.
7. TRUE TIMBER– (30-1). Mostly run at shorter races, this horse will be one of the longest shots on the board and likely to finish in the last third. He does have good breeding with Mine Shaft as his sire and he recently raced well at a Grade 1 in Dec where he came in second to Patternrecognition. But, that was a one-turn mile. The Pegasus will likely to be too much of a challenge for this horse.
8. GUNNEVERA– (8-1). I’ve had my eye on this horse since he burst onto the scene in 2016. A Florida based colt, he has home-field advantage at Gulfstream Park and it’ll be his second try in the Pegasus after coming in third at this race last year (2018). I like his chances to at least place here on Saturday because of his continued eagerness, even at four-years old. The result has been a steady consistent improvement in Beyer Speed Figures and closer finishes to tougher competition (2nd at the Woodward in Sept and 2nd at the Breeder’s Cup Classic to Accelerate in Nov.) Perhaps Gunnevera senses the unwavering desire of his trainer, Antonio Sano, who has overcome so much. The man has an incredible spirit to fight for survival and his quest to become one of the most successful Latino trainers in the country is remarkable. The love and ambition he’s put into Gunnevera is why I think the colt sustains a will to fight. Hopefully he can finally bring home the big one for Sano on Saturday. What a great story that would be and a huge accolade for the embattled trainer who deserves it.
9. KUKULKAN– (30-1). This four-year-old colt will be ridden by renowned international jockey Frankie Dettori who has said about him, “He’s a longshot, but he’s unbeaten.” That really does epitomize how this horse will stack up with this tough field. While he’s got talent, and has done well in his native Mexico by winning that country’s Triple Crown last year along with 13 undefeated starts south of the border, he faces an uphill climb to beat the best that North America has to offer. Still, if not for the 71 Beyer speed in the Clasico Del Caribe at Gulfstream in Dec, I might take this one more seriously. That was way too slow for the likes of the Pegasus competition.
10. AUDIBLE– (10-1). This four-year-old is a big threat to be spoiler. He won the Holy Bull and Florida Derby last year (both at Gulfstream) and finished third at the 2018 Kentucky Derby behind Justify and Good Magic. But after a six-month layoff, he’s not done much except to win the seven furlong Cherokee Run in Nov and place second in the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday right before Christmas. All that makes this horse the biggest wild card in the race for me. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has indicated the horse is training well now and of course, he had those two wins already at Gulfstream last year. Plus, he’ll be ridden by Flavien Prat, a rising star. My biggest concern is the weather. If it rains right before or during race time, he may not like it. He’s done ok on wet tracks, but has flopped on them too.
11. IMPERATIVE– (30-1). It was surprising to many in the racing world that this nine-year-old gelding was entered in this race. He’s had six different owners and several trainers over the years and broke his pelvis at one point. His last Grade 1 race was the Woodward in Sept where he finished fourteenth and before that, the Santa Anita Handicap in 2017 with a ninth-place finish. This outside post is also bad for him. He really should just be retired, but I guess he keeps earning money on some level. I expect his odds to get even higher as race day unfolds.
12. PATTERNRECOGNITION– (10-1). This six-year-old is a true pacesetter, speedy and just came off the biggest win of his career. But the far outside post really hurts his chances in my eyes. He’s also never raced at this distance. For those reasons, I’m not banking that he finishes in the top five like some handicappers seem to think. However, I do like that he is trained by Chad Brown who has a belief in him and his health after the horse dealt with physical setbacks to keep him out of stakes racing until four years old. Overall, this is another intriguing horse for this race, especially at these odds.
MY PICKS – In Finishing Order
- City of Light
- Accelerate
- Gunnevera
- Audible
- Bravazo
- Tom’s d’Etat
- Patternrecognition
- Seeking the Soul
- Something Awesome
- True Timber
- Kukulkan
- Imperative
Source : https://www.pegasusworldcup.com
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