HORSE RACING – BELMONT STAKES 2019 PICKS
If you follow me on Twitter, you’ll know that I can’t get enough of watching Secretariat win the Belmont Stakes in 1973. It was the race where “Big Red” won by 31 lengths and became history’s ninth Triple Crown Winner.
If that race doesn’t give you chills, I don’t know what will. The fact remains that after running in the Wood Memorial on April 21, 1973, Secretariat ran in the Kentucky Derby on May 5, the Preakness on May 19 and the Belmont on June 6. And, he still beat the competition by a wide margin.
Secretariat also lost 24 pounds by the end of his Triple Crown run and yet went on to race again 3 weeks later at the Arlington Invitational. (He won that, too). I couldn’t find a horse in recent memory who ran as much as that in such a short period of time and would also compete 5 more times in 1973 until he was retired…
Super horses like Secretariat aside, winning at the Belmont Stakes is no easy task. A 1.5-mile-long race on a tough surface full of deep sandy soil and extremely wide turns is a tall order. To prevail over all others, it takes a big, tough beast that has tremendous stamina and an experienced jockey.
This year, Secretariat’s track and world record of 2 minutes and 24 seconds will likely be safe. And, we won’t be seeing a repeat of such a lengthy win. (We probably never will.) Still, we do have a nice slate of competitors that will try to etch their names in the annals of horse racing history.
My choice for winner of the 2019 Belmont Stakes is Tacitus. I’ve liked this horse to win this race since I handicapped him for the Kentucky Derby. The gray colt is bred for distance, he’s a big horse, is on the improve and is one of the fastest horses in the field. He’ll also be ridden by Jose Ortiz who is experienced with this track having won the Belmont in 2017 aboard Tapwrit. (Tacitus & Tapwrit share the same sire: Tapit.)
I may be proven wrong, but I don’t think War of Will is going to take the Belmont from Tacitus. I give the Mark Casse colt credit for sneaking up on the rail and winning the Preakness Stakes, but he is the only horse who will have raced in all three Triple Crown contests, his pedigree for 1.5 miles is in question and I don’t like the 9-post for this horse at this race. He will probably lose ground trying to vie for a stalking position with so many others wanting to keep close. I’m just not sure he has the stamina to get the job done. WOW may hit the board, but Tacitus will likely be the better horse on Saturday.
That said, if WOW does somehow win this race, that would be an unbelievable story. If not hampered by Maximum Security’s interference on Derby Day, who knows if he could have been another Triple Crown winner…
Another horse I like to finish well in the Belmont is Sir Winston, a long-shot that has raced at that track before and liked it. He also has excellent speed and while historically a late-runner, I expect a tactic that will be used by his 2014 Belmont Stakes winning jockey (Joel Rosario) is to keep him closer to the pace than usual. I’m also including this closer because of his breeding for the distance. With his speed and stamina, he could pass some tired horses down the stretch.
Right behind them, I like Tax who gave Tacitus a run for his money in the Wood Memorial on April 6. This colt’s running style for this race and breeding suggests stamina for the distance. And, he’s also put down fast speeds during his three-year old season. Another plus for him: Saturday’s race looks like it will be dry. According to his trainer, Danny Gargan, Tax was not a fan of the sloppy track at Churchill Downs. That may explain his 14thplace finish at the Derby. Since he will be well-rested for the Belmont, I’m not going to count that topsy-turvy crazy Derby against him. The one caveat that does scare me a bit is a reported “foot bruise” that he sustained a few days ago when stepping on a stone after training. But, Gargan thinks all is well and if there is a question, he claims he will pull Tax out of the race. If he stays in, I’ll keep my confidence in this one.
Another closer that seems to have all the goods on paper for this race is the Japanese contender, Master Fencer. He’s speedy, has been training well leading up to this week and I like his talent and potential. The only question for him: Can this outlier from across the globe hang with the others born and bred here? The good news is that he did surprisingly well at the Derby, finishing seventh overall… I have a feeling Master Fencer’s story may turn out a lot like Thunder Snow‘s who came to the US and became an international sensation after turning four. If MF does indeed finish well at the Belmont, we should be seeing a lot more of this one in the future as he follows in Thunder Snow’s hoof prints.
Rounding out my choices is Everfast, trained by the great Dale Romans. I like that this horse was the runner-up at the Preakness, is still improving, has good speed and has looked excellent in training up to the Belmont. I would place him higher in my list, but historically, horses that have missed the Derby and performed well in the Preakness have struggled at the Belmont. Everfast fits this scenario. Still, on paper, he’s got the distance pedigree, speed and improvement factor.
All in all, I picked three stalkers (Tacitus, War of Will, Tax) and three closers (Sir Winston, Everfast & Master Fencer) to finish in my top six. Closers don’t generally fare well at the Belmont. But I think the jockeys who have closers with deep stamina pedigrees and proven speed will likely try to keep their mounts in the mix earlier than usual and have an excellent chance to hit the board.
MY BELMONT STAKES SUPERFECTA:
Tacitus with:
War of Will
Sir Winston
Tax
Master Fencer
Everfast
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at https://theladylovessports.com/contact.