HORSE RACING – KENTUCKY DERBY 2019 PICKS

Trying to handicap a Kentucky Derby is hard enough with a twenty (20) horse field of three-year olds who’ve never raced at a mile and a quarter before.  But, to have the favorite scratch just days before the big show… it can throw the whole betting plan right out the window in a hurry.  

That is what happened to me this week.  Within hours of settling on my pick (Omaha Beach) on Wednesday, the colt was scratched due to a breathing issue.  I was really high on him and I believe the entire picture of how the race is to be run now changes. 

Omaha Beach would probably have won the Kentucky Derby based on his past ability to get in front early and take control of the pace.  This versatile running style/tactical speed is perfect for this race, but he also has the pedigree to get the job done, was in a favorable post to win (#12), beat two of the three Baffert horses on the Derby trail and proved his mettle on a wet track before.  

But, now that he is out, I’ve had to go in a different direction.  I think the pace will play out one of two ways.  

First, Maximum Security (in the 7 post), may get to the front and set the pace of this race.  If he can get the trip, I think it would be wise for the jockey to have him sit on the lead and never let it go.  (Caveat: wire-to-wire Kentucky Derby winners are uncommon.  The last one to do it was War Emblem in 2002.  Before him, Winning Colors in 1988.  All told, only 22 have led from start to finish in the 145-year race history.) 

Though lightly raced, Max Security has looked incredibly impressive.  He’s won wire to wire in his only graded stakes race in March (Florida Derby) by 3.5 lengths, won his December maiden claiming race by 9.75 lengths and won his Jan and Feb races by a combined total of about 25 lengths.  He also is one of only three horses in the field (including the scratched Omaha Beach) to hit triple-digit speed figures during the prep season and he took his second career win in January on a wet track.

However, the inexperienced colt had a perfect trip in a smaller field on a dry track in the Florida Derby.  And, there is some doubt about him handling the distance and craziness in the rain that will likely fall on Saturday.  

The second scenario is that Max Security could get the lead and lose it down the stretch, or he does not get a good trip to the front which will open everything up to the other contenders.  If this happens, I can see Vekoma/ Bodexpress /War of Will out front.

With this situation, of the front runners, I think only the ambiguous War of Will may have a chance.  He has raced on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs and his trainer will want to be aggressive with the colt since he is sitting on the rail.  

But, I think a bunch of stalkers will come in to take the race over for the win down the stretch if Maximum Security can’t handle the situation.  I like any one of Baffert’s horses but Improbable has the most upside to me here.  Yet, it wouldn’t shock me if Game Winner or Roadster winds up wearing the rose garland in the end. Anybody got a coin I can flip?

I am also a fan of Tacitus who overall is the best race horse (on paper) in the field now.  He’s a big, tough horse who is improving, possesses speed & a push-button accelerator, great breeding and a versatile running style.  If he doesn’t win the Kentucky Derby, we’ll definitely see him at the Belmont Stakes where he’ll show off that pedigree made for distance.  Of course, remember the old adage: It’s not the best horse who wins the Kentucky Derby, it’s which horse gets the best trip…

For my longshot, I’m going with Tax. He’s got speed, a good racing style, consistency and excellent connections.  By My Standards also turns my head, but I’m concerned about his two losses which came on off-tracks.  If it’s a drier surface, he looks better to me.

MY PICKS

This year, it’s all about stats and a gut check.  Here’s my top finishers (in order):

Improbable

Tacitus

Maximum Security

Game Winner

Roadster

LONG SHOTS – Tax, By My Standards.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at https://theladylovessports.com/contact.