BELMONT STAKES 2020 PREVIEW & PICKS
Due to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, the running of the 152nd Belmont Stakes will go forward on Saturday under historically different conditions than in the past.
For the first time in over 90 years, this year’s Belmont will be run at 1.125 miles (9 furlongs) instead of 1.5-miles (12 furlongs). That will make it the shortest of the Triple Crown races, instead of the longest. (Kentucky Derby is run at 1.25 miles/10 furlongs; Preakness Stakes is run at 1.1875 miles/9.5 furlongs).
Also, the Belmont has traditionally been scheduled third in the Triple Crown series but will go first this year. The Kentucky Derby was moved from the first Saturday in May to September 5. And, the Preakness will be run on October 3 instead of mid-May. Thus, the usual 5-week timetable between the three races has been stretched to 15-weeks.
Finally, there will be no fans in attendance at Belmont Park on Saturday due to safety concerns.
So, how do I feel about these changes as a horse racing fan? Well, I’m certainly happy the Triple Crown series will be run at all this year, as there were fears the three races would be canceled outright. For all the owners, trainers and people involved in raising majestic thoroughbreds, it is a good thing. But, ultimately, I’m skeptical about the way the Triple Crown series is being played out under the circumstances.
Call me a traditionalist. Call me stubborn. Call me headstrong. But, running the Triple Crown races out of order, prolonging the schedule and cutting down the distance at the Belmont makes the 2020 version of the title feel too disparate to be considered legitimate.
The Triple Crown is usually run with 2 weeks between the Derby and Preakness and the Belmont 3 weeks later. This year, there will be 11 weeks between the Belmont and Derby and 4 more weeks to the Preakness.
How is this reimagined Triple Crown series in any way analogous to the traditional version designed to test the strength and stamina of a single horse? Winning the Triple Crown within 5 weeks is hard to do and finishing the series with a race going 1.5 miles is arduous. The Belmont is not called “The Test of the Champion” for nothing. So, do we call it “Belmont Stakes Lite” this year?
My preference would have been to keep the Triple Crown races in order, the distances the same, and move the series to later in the season on the calendar. But, the Breeder’s Cup series scheduled for Nov 6-7 is a real problem. Having the two events too close together would ruffle the feathers of many in the industry who consider the Breeder’s Cup “more important” than the Triple Crown.
It makes sense when you look at how much money is at stake. The Breeder’s Cup in November at Keeneland will include 13 Grade I races worth $26 million. The three Triple Crown races combined will be worth less than $5 million. So, it seems we’ll just have to accept the convoluted Triple Crown series and embrace it for what it is.
There are also several upsides to the revisions of the 2020 Triple Crown arrangement to consider. One is the inclusion of late-blooming horses who would not have had the chance to run such prestigious races under normal circumstances.
Also, shortening the Belmont substantially opens up the field of contenders who normally would not run such a long race. For example, the longer Belmont does not tend to have late running horses in the field go on to win. With early speed up front this year due to the shorter distance, we could see a horse who likes to hang back actually have a chance to win the esteemed Belmont Stakes.
In addition, spreading the calendar out to 15 weeks allows for more mature horses to compete in the Triple Crown race which, according to experts, “should be better – they [the horses] should be more seasoned, they should be less fragile and hopefully more healthy.”
Then there’s the Preakness Stakes which is often the forgotten “middle child” of the title. Situated last, the event could have a bigger spotlight on it this year, especially if a Triple Crown is at stake.
As for the stands being empty, I’m fine with that. It would have been nice to feel the crush of 33,000+ fans cheering on the horse racing industry in person, but it is the reality of 2020 sporting events. At least the horses will likely enjoy the more subdued atmosphere…
All that said, I’m still a horse racing fan at heart and I’m anxious to see how Saturday’s Stakes race will unfold. We have a field of 10 interesting contenders including the early favorite (Tiz the Law) who could become only the fourth New York bred horse and the first in 138-years to win New York’s Belmont Stakes.
Handicapping Sheet by Post Position:
| 1 – Tap it to Win | A Tapit colt trained by Mark Casse, he has said this colt has similarities to War of Will. The horse likes Belmont, having won there 2 weeks ago in an Allowance race. Has enough early speed (4th best in the field) to be at or near the lead. I like this one to finish in the top 5 at least. I also like this Number 1 hole, the winningest post position in Belmont Stakes history. |
| 2 – Sole Volante | This closer has a real chance to finish in the top 3. He began his career on turf and moved to dirt in time for the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in Feb & come in second to King Guillermo at the Tampa Bay Derby in March. He’s fast (3rd best in the field) and has been improving. He’ll be ridden by 46-year old Italian jockey Luca Panici, competing in his first ever Triple Crown race. |
| 3 – Max Player | If this colt wins, he will have helped the first woman trainer (Linda Rice) to win the Belmont Stakes. A late jockey switch to Joel Rosario (who won the Belmont last year on Sir Winston & aboard Tonalist in 2014) helps Rice out. This horse was a slow starter and hasn’t raced since Feb 1 but has talent & has matured. He is turning my head a bit at 15-1 odds. |
| 4 – Modernist | Hall of Famer Bill Mott trains this Uncle Mo colt. He won the G2 Risen Star in February & third in the Louisiana Derby in March after a wide start from the far outside post. He hasn’t had the speed needed to win, but he is a solid horse that could have improved and belongs here. |
| 5 – Farmington Road | A Todd Pletcher trained colt with Javier Castellano to ride. Pletcher has more wins in the Belmont than any other trainer with three. But, Castellano has yet to win this race. And, this horse has not yet had a breakthrough performance. He needs a hot pace up front & best race of his life to get up front. |
| 6 – Fore Left | This Doug O’Neill trained colt will likely be on or at the lead, adding early speed up front. He has won at Belmont before going 5.5 furlongs early in his experienced career. But, his wins never came beyond 1 mile (8 furlongs). He’ll have Jose Ortiz on his back and word is he has matured. At least one expert has this one pegged for the upset over Tiz. I’m not enamored with the idea. But, anything can happen. |
| 7 – Jungle Runner | A late Steve Asmussen entry, there’s nothing in his record or numbers that makes me think this colt has a chance. This son of Candy Ride is among the slowest entries (on paper) and his last race came in May when he finished eighth at the Arkansas Derby. It’s a pass for me. |
| 8 – Tiz the Law | Considered by many experts to be the best 3-year old in the country right now as several other top contenders are dropping out of the KD Prep Field. Tiz is the fastest horse in the field by the numbers, the only contender to have a G1 win (he has 2), has won at Belmont Park, looked sharp in training, and is a versatile runner. This is the one to beat. |
| 9 – Dr. Post | This lightly raced Quality Road colt is considered to be the better of the two Todd Pletcher trainees. By the numbers, he’s the second fastest in the field behind Tiz. There isn’t a lot of intel to make me believe this will be his breakthrough performance. Still, I can’t ignore the buzz surrounding this horse and the potential that he has. Expectations are that he does jump up in class and have a good race. He’s my wild card. |
| 10 – Pneumatic | Uncle Mo gets around… Yet another of his colts in a Triple Crown race. I’m not seeing it as this late blooming Steve Asmussen trainee has only two races under his belt. But there is noise that this horse has the goods and his racing style as a presser/pacer will put him in position to challenge for the lead and could even upset. |
MY PICKS
WINNER: TIZ THE LAW
PLACE: SOLE VOLANTE
SHOW: TAP IT TO WIN
WILD CARD: DR. POST
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at https://theladylovessports.com/contact.