KENTUCKY DERBY 2020 – PICKS
It may seem strange for us to be discussing the Run for the Roses in September and not during the month of May when it is traditionally held. But, it feels good to know at least one thing remains constant during these bizarre times: In its 146-year history, the Kentucky Derby has never been canceled, just postponed twice. Only a World War (1945) and Worldwide Pandemic (Covid-19) could keep us from witnessing America’s biggest horse race on time.
So, while the Triple Crown schedule has been rearranged due to the Coronavirus, at least we still have the ability to watch the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports once again and can admire some of the best equine athletes in the world.
But, of course, since this is the 2020 version of the Kentucky Derby, there are other variances that will impact the race differently than we have seen in year’s past.
One is a shortened field that will include newcomers (horses that did not earn points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby). Because the Triple Crown Races were moved around this year, the three-year old thoroughbred campaign went into disarray. A series of “Prep” races were added to the calendar leading up to the Derby which opened the door for some slow to mature horses and yet, closed on others who had peaked at the “wrong” time.
The result is the 2020 Kentucky Derby will have the smallest field since 2003. We only had 19 starters earlier in the week and now we’re down to 16 because of a few scratches.
Of course, the traditional number of entrants is 20 and usually the starting gate is full. This large number of runners and their diversity of styles is what generally makes this race so challenging to win. This year, we still have a deep group of talented horses, but a couple newcomers will add some difficulty for us handicappers. More on that later…
Fans may also notice a new single starting gate will be used this year for the Derby instead of the old “auxiliary gate” system used for the past 22 years. Churchill Downs hired an Australian company to create a custom-made new single starting gate for the purpose of establishing a fairer experience for all the horses, across the board. The old system used two gates put together (14 stalls + 6 other stalls). Now, 20 horses will break from the same gate across. This will have a big impact.
The new gate is shorter in length, because the wide gap that used to exist between the old two gates has been eliminated. Now, posts No. 1 and No. 20 move in about 10-15 feet on each end. That means the inside post will be pushed slightly farther away from the rail and the outside post will not be so far over anymore. This should help eliminate some of the collisions that tend to happen when the horses converge in on one another at the start.
NOTE: At the time of this posting, it was announced the No. 1 post will not be used and the 3 outside posts will not be used (18-20), due to the 16-horse field.
Another difference in the Derby this year will be the lack of fans in attendance. On any given year, 150,000+ people pack the stands at Churchill Downs. With everyone cheering on the horses, making noises and moving around, that probably does affect shyer and/or greener horses. It’ll be interesting to see if it impacts some of our more lightly raced colts in the field and/or jockeys newer to the experience.
PICKS IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE:
TIZ THE LAW – He’s been the best horse this year and no one can dispute that. He is simply the one to beat. He has won 4 (four) Grade 1 races already including the Florida Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes which went 1 1/4 miles, the same distance as the Kentucky Derby. He has also put down the fastest speed of all three-year old male horses this season. And, importantly, he has an incredible finishing speed – better than anyone else in the field. With all of these important attributes plus a versatile running style and continued improvement, he’s my pick. If he wins tomorrow, he may be a lock for the Triple Crown.
HONOR A. P. – Many experts have him picked as a contender to upset Tiz the Law. I agree this horse has the ability and potential to challenge the favorite down the stretch. Having the great Mike Smith onboard will definitely help. The Hall of Fame jockey chose to ride this colt months ago when he had other choices for the Derby, and that says something. Indeed, Honor A. P. ticks most of the boxes we want for a Derby winner. The only knock may be that his late speed doesn’t match up quite as well as Tiz’s. Still, this is super talented horse that should relish the distance and be in the Top 5, at least.
NY TRAFFIC is another one I like. He may have come in second in his last three races, but I was impressed in his very last one (Haskell Stakes), where he showed a nice late kick and may have won but ran out of room in the 1 1/8 m race. This helps me overcome the question about him and his pedigree/ability to get the distance with two-turns… My whole family is from NY and I am feeling sentimental about the Big Apple lately after what has been going on under Mayor de Blasio’s reign. NY needs this. I hope he does well.
THOUSAND WORDS is the less popular of the two Bob Baffert horses entered in the Derby. It’s just a hunch, but I believe he will do better than his protégé AUTHENTIC who I also think could hit the board well. From what I have seen of Authentic, he has lacked the late kick needed for the distance, especially after setting the pace. But, if he does hold on and finish in the top three, then he really is improving like Baffert has said and I will give that horse more respect moving forward. For the purposes of the Derby, I like what I’ve seen from Thousand Words better. The irony here would be if Thousand Words becomes the pacesetter and runs out of steam while Authentic rushes past him. We shall see…
MAX PLAYER has been on my radar since he finished third behind Tiz the Law in both the Belmont Stakes and Travers. This closer has impressed me with his late speed and has improved with each start. And, with his pedigree and being a late foal, this is setting up to be a big race for this colt. I also like that he now has the most inside rail post of the others after the No. 1 scratched, which has ground-saving potential. My only concern is how the pace is setting up – it doesn’t appear it will be super quick. That doesn’t tend to bode well for closers in a race like this. That’s why I’ve not included SOLE VOLANTE, another closer that I was close to adding in my Top 5, but has not shown improvement lately.
LONGSHOTS
ATTACHMENT RATE – He’s an experienced, consistent colt that has improved over time with the distance asked of him. I particularly like his performance in the Matt Winn where he hung in closer to the front. If that is how the jockey rides him in the Derby, I think he has just enough speed to pull off a Top 10.
MONEY MOVES – This is one of those colts with 0 Prep Race points, but who shows a ton of potential having put down triple-digit speed and as the son of Candy Ride. This colt is trained by Pletcher and managed by Lukas, ridden by Castellano – all excellent resources who will do right by him. I think he will either bomb out or finish in the Top 10. With the lack of crowd and smaller field, that could help this green horse do better than expected.
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