HORSE RACING – KENTUCKY DERBY 2022 PICKS

In the last several years since I’ve been amateur handicapping the Kentucky Derby, I usually have a standout horse in my mind to win the Derby several days prior to race day.  But this year, I do not have that same confident feeling.

The field of twenty that will stand across the gate at Churchill Downs on Saturday is very deep and talented, but I seem to come up with question marks for each contender.  There is no clear favorite as in past years, leaving this to be one of the most wide-open Kentucky Derbies in recent memory.  

The good news is that if you are a horse racing bettor, there are many intriguing long shot possibilities for your tickets on Derby Day 2022.  

So, how did I pick my winner?  I looked carefully at how I see this race playing out and gave more confidence to those horses who have rated the best speed figures and particularly those have had the fastest late fractions.  I’m also giving preference to horses who have shown grit and toughness in recent past. 

The likely pacesetter of this race will be Summer is Tomorrow from the #4 post.  This colt got into the Kentucky Derby by coming in second at the UAE Derby in March.  He came out of a similar post and led the field at a scorching pace for most of the race until he was overtaken by Crown Pride (JPN).  Unfortunately, I have no speed figures for either of these colts to compare to the rest of the field.  Still, I think Crown Pride is the closest international contender to win the Derby in history.  The buzz surrounding this horse and his training sessions this week at Churchill Downs has been tremendous.

Of course, no international horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby before, but if Crown Pride can handle the moment, he may have a big shot at being in the final grouping.  His great grandsire was Sunday Silence who won the 1989 Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, came in 2nd at the Belmont Stakes and won the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  

Included with the forwardly placed horses I like to be there in the end are Epicenter, Taiba, Cyberknife, Charge It and Messier.  Screaming down the back stretch to pick up the pieces, may be Mo Donegal and Zandon.  

In the end, I settled on a close match between Taiba and Zandon.  Taiba may have only raced twice in his career before, but he will have the great Mike Smith aboard him and they will be coming from a decent post.  Smith has raced in 27 Derbies and won it twice.  He has raved about this son of Gunrunner saying, “(Taiba) has got a brilliant mind to go along with his talent, which reminded me of Justify,” said Smith. “They both have a really good, high cruising speed, but they’re really intelligent and they listen to you.”  These kinds of traits Smith feels may help make up for his lack of experience.  

On a personal note, I am a huge fan of Mike Smith and if he was to win another Derby this year, he would be the oldest to do it.  At 56-years-old, he is still going, and I am glad of it.  Also, Taiba is a son of Gunrunner, one of my all-time favorite racehorses.  Perhaps there is special place in my heart for this combo.  

As for Zandon, he will be coming from the 10 post, which has produced the second most Derby winners in history.  And he will be ridden by Flavien Prat, another jockey I have much respect for.  He seems to be able to get the best trip out of every colt he rides.  This colt is also very well balanced, professional, has versatility, excellent late speed fractions and the way he pushed himself through the crowd at the Blue Grass Stakes to go from last to first with mud in his face impressed me.  Finally, trainer Chad Brown seems extremely high on this colt’s chances and has spoken about his excellent “turn of foot”. 

Not to be left out of the conversation, I also feel very good about Messier, another west coast colt like Taiba.  He best fits the classic profile of a traditional Kentucky Derby winner, having the stamina, speed, style and late speed fractions we look for in a contender.  This Canadian bred horse has also had a four-week break which bodes well for him and we should expect him to be at or near the lead.  His jockey will be John Velazquez who has raced in the Derby 23 times and won it 3 times (2011, 2017, 2020).  If anyone can steer this horse to victory, it would be Velazquez.  My only worry about Messier is if he can take the heavy pace that will likely be upfront and stay the course.  The way he let Taiba win in the Santa Anita Derby was surprising to me, but it will be interesting to see how he does in this Derby.  

On paper, Epicenter is the favorite.  He shares the same connections as Gunrunner, is one of the fastest horses in the field, has versatility in racing style, loves Churchill Downs, is a smart horse and will be ridden by Joel Rosario, who has a Kentucky Derby win (2013).  Unfortunately, this colt drew the #3 hole which is not very favorable.  But anything can happen.  I personally would love to see this horse win as well because trainer Steve Asmussen needs to get his first Derby trophy.  Racehorse fans like me have a fondness for Asmussen and we would love to see him cement his legacy as one of the greatest trainers in history.   

Another of my top picks is Mo Donegal.  I can’t ignore that this horse has the fastest late fractions of any other in the field.  In fact, only 1 horse has run faster than him historically in Derby preps and that was Maximum Security.  Mo has also won from the rail before, is battle-tested and doesn’t back off from a fight.  He will be a great Belmont Stakes choice, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this colt was trying hard at the end of this race and came in the top 5.  

Cyberknife also intrigues me.  Another son of Gunrunner, he like Churchill Downs, is trained by the hot Brad Cox, has a good post position (16), is known to come out of the gate quickly and regularly trains on a wet track.  His jock will be Florent Giroux, another wonderful French rider I always trust to get a good trip from his horses.  My only hesitation on this colt is that he has a tendency to be immature and has drifted in races.  But, still a nice, talented horse that has a real shot in this wide-open field.

Charge It has had some great buzz this week.  A Pletcher-trained colt, this one is also very lightly raced but obviously very talented.  I like that he fought in the Florida Derby and was able to garner second place, has great stamina pedigree (he will likely race in the Belmont Stakes if all goes well) and his style and post are ideal.  

Good luck to all participants.

MY TOP PICKS

Taiba

Zandon

Messier

Crown Pride

Epicenter

Mo Donegal

Cyberknife

Charge It

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