HORSE RACING – SHOULD THE TRIPLE CROWN SCHEDULE CHANGE?

If you’re a casual horse racing fan, you may not be aware that a debate is currently raging on social media about whether the second and third jewels of the Triple Crown should be moved on the calendar to accommodate more Derby-run horses which in turn could help keep the relevance of the prestigious three race series alive.

This is not an uncommon rumination by the horse racing community.  It seems every year after the Kentucky Derby, the discussion (and worry) comes back around as to why so many Derby runners bypass Pimlico altogether.  

In fact, an average of only three Kentucky Derby participants have competed in the Preakness Stakes since 2015 and only one horse (MAGE) ran it in 2023. This number is down from an average of 5 between 1994-2013.  

Regardless, out of a large field of twenty that usually line up in the gate on the first Saturday in May, having only 3 or even 5 Derby-run horses in the Preakness field is a very low number.  

So far this year (2024), we only have one confirmed Kentucky Derby participant entered in the Preakness and that is 17th-place finisher JUST STEEL.  

Meanwhile, at the time of this posting, Derby winner MYSTIK DAN has not yet been confirmed to run in the Preakness.  If he does not go, it would be the second time in three years the Derby winner skipped the race altogether (RICH STRIKE, 2021), and the fifth time in six years that no Triple Crown will be at stake.  

Mystik Dan’s trainer, KENNY MCPEEK, has expressed his concern about running his colt back so quickly after his big effort in Louisville.  And, he has legitimate reasons to being cautious.  Last November, McPeek returned his colt to racing after just 13 days and he wound up with a lung infection that set him back.  

But the veteran trainer with almost 39 year’s experience has also voiced his concern about the quick turnaround between the Triple Crown races in general.  On Wednesday, McPeek said he’d, “change the Triple Crown schedule so the second and third legs are held on the first Saturday of June and the first Saturday of July” for “concerns over horse safety” and the possibility “it would lead to more Kentucky Derby participants competing in all three [Triple Crown] races.”

Indeed, the obvious advantages of McPeek’s schedule modification might be to 1) help safeguard the decision-making of eager trainers whose horses may not be ready to return to racing so soon; and 2) bring back more familiar faces in the fields of the historically important second and third leg contests. 

To me, both seem to be very valid reasons that we should move the Triple Crown schedule which currently runs in a five-week span.  Adding more time between the races feels like the modern solution the horse racing community so desperately needs for its two biggest issues: horse safety and declining audiences.  

Thoroughbred horse racing has taken several big blows recently that have given the sport a black eye and which threatens its very existence.  Among others, they include the very public fights between Churchill Downs and trainer Bob Baffert, an inordinate amount of horse deaths and a scathing documentary plus TV reports which have highlighted the terrible issue of doping in the sport.  These things don’t exactly endear the public to horse racing.  

Despite all that, TV ratings and wagering for the 2024 Kentucky Derby were astronomical.  More than 20 million viewers tuned in, (the most since 1989) and the 150th Derby drew a record $198.3 million in wagers with nearly $320 million bet in total on the 14-race card that day at Churchill Downs. 

Thus, it’s plain to see that the public enjoys thoroughbred horse racing and has fun betting on the sport despite continuous high inflation in the U.S. 

It’d be a shame for the horse racing industry to waste this opportunity while other problems circulate and could undermine its small successes.  Ex – Last year, the 2023 Preakness Stakes saw its lowest audience in over 20 years.  Only 5.1 million viewers tuned in, likely having to do with a lack of Kentucky Derby participants (only one).  

But, by adding more time between the Triple Crown races, it might help Derby-run horses recover properly and encourage their connections to want to go on and compete in the second and third legs, not just the first.  In turn, this could attract more casual horse racing fans who remember these contenders from the Kentucky Derby. And, ultimately, bring audiences back to witnessing and wagering on all the races of the Triple Crown.

Just think, how great would it be to see Sierra Leone and Forever Young renew their rivalry with Mystik Dan again on the first Saturday in June?  Alas, we may never get this rematch again as Sierra Leone bypassed the Preakness and Forever Young went back to Japan until the fall.  It’d be interesting to know if these horse’s connections would have reconsidered racing in the Preakness with more time in between…

But, what of the traditions of the current Triple Crown and past winners versus future winners with our new timeframe scenario?  Would it sully the legacy and prestige of this wonderful series?

Certainly, it would be easier for a horse to win the Triple Crown within an extended timeframe.  But it would still be a very difficult challenge to pull off.  

So, yes, it might be tempting to want an asterisk next to Triple Crown winners who prevail with a revised schedule, but in my opinion the prestige and notoriety would remain intact.  They’d simply be reimagined to fit the modern era.  

As outlined earlier, the benefits could be that it could help attract even more audiences, help with horse safety, and perhaps lead to other positive changes the sport so desperately needs.  

For traditionalists who may not like this idea, I draw a similar line to Major League Baseball and how it made many modern changes that helped boost audiences in 2023.  

Since America’s favorite pastime implemented the pitch timer, set defensive shift limits, and added bigger bases (all controversial changes to the sport of baseball which is as old as the Triple Crown), the sport saw a 9.6% attendance increase in 2023 had the greatest year-over-year increase at the gates since 1993.

This brings me to my final point about this issue: By reassessing the time frame of the Triple Crown series and pointing the Preakness to the first Saturday in June and Belmont to the first Saturday in July, the exposure and publicity alone would be an added benefit.  

By showing the world that horse racing is dedicated to the safety of its athletes and is conscientiousness about its future (like baseball was), this would be another boost in the arm the industry clamors for.

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