HORSE RACING – KENTUCKY DERBY 2024 PICKS

Another year, another Kentucky Derby, another crop of three-year old thoroughbreds trying to do something they’ve never done before and never will do again:  Compete against 19 other horses for a mile and a quarter on dirt in front of over 150,000 screaming fans.

But this year’s Derby is a little different than others as the overall field is not a very deep one which opens the possibility that we see a Japanese contender be the first to wear the legendary Garland of Roses.

One of the reasons for the yield in talent this year amongst the Derby field has to do with the loss of presence by one of America’s leading horseracing trainers, Bob Baffert.  

In July 2023, Churchill Downs Inc. decided to extend a ban on Baffert-trained horses from competing in the Derby for another year.  It’s a complicated saga that I intend to do a deep dive into during the coming weeks, but essentially there is ongoing nasty feud between CD representatives and the six-time Derby winning trainer based in California since MEDINA SPIRIT was disqualified as the 2021 Derby champion due to a positive test for betamethasone, a therapeutic ointment.  Baffert claimed it was accidental, but use of this substance is banned on race day. The entities have been mired in a very public (and legal) dispute since.

The bottom-line is that Baffert once again had at least one of the best three-year-olds in the country that will not be competing in the Derby this year.  The good news is that we will likely see this horse (MUTH) on Preakness day in the coming weeks.

An additional fact that makes the Derby field a little less special than previous years is that more than half of the competitors in this year’s Derby have failed to run at higher speeds we are used to seeing coming into this race.  

So, how do we evaluate this crop of “slower” horses?  Which ones are on the rise and will take a step forward in the Derby?  Well, it sure has made handicapping this race all the more confusing than usual…

THE RACE

When I handicap the Kentucky Derby every year, I usually sit down and lay out the facts of the contenders on paper to find out who the fastest and most accomplished are in the bunch, plus who will be most likely to get the added distance.  These are the horses that usually tend to fare the best on the first Saturday in May and who generally become the favorite(s).  Favorites usually have a good track record of winning the Derby.

Now, I say “usually” because the most recent Derby winner’s trend has recently moved towards horses at higher odds who came from farther back to upset the field.  (RICH STRIKE, MAGE)

This had to do with very fast paces unfolding amongst the leading horses up front and falling apart, which allowed these faster deep closers to rush in and cross the finish line first.  And, also the fact that Baffert horses have not been included in the last two years…

Another stat I’ve added to my arsenal this year are Thoro-Graph numbers which I’ve been lucky enough to get from pro handicappers I follow.  Thoro-Graph data is essentially a “rating” calculated by specific criteria of each race a horse has run and is calculated by: “using the time of the race, beaten lengths (a proprietary formula different than generally used), ground lost or saved, weight carried, and the effect wind may or may not have had on the time of the race.”  This is more advanced than just relying on speed figures as I have done in the past.  Thoro-Graph info helps us compare racehorses who have competed at different tracks with different conditions. 

So, how will the pace unfold this year?  Ah, the magic question… Well, according to most experts’ opinions that I have seen, it will likely not be a slow pace.  We have about five speed horses that might like to have the lead in this race.  This includes the morning line favorite and likely race day favorite (FIERCENESS) who will be coming from an outside post. 

However, I don’t think his connections and the other top pace horses want blitheringly fast speeds which minimizes their chances to win.  This includes DORNOCH (from the #1 rail) who will be going fast to start but could settle.  This colt has slower late fractions in his previous races, so the worry is that he could peter out if he goes too quick.  But this full brother of last year’s winner (MAGE) also does not like to be passed and does not do well behind other horses.  It will be up to jockey Luis Saez to help keep this horse in check to stop spoilers like SIERRA LEONE from coming up and beating him like he did in the Remsen Stakes.  

That all being said, I can see a pace duel unfold up front as well making this a very fast race.  Due to Fierceness breaking from an outside post and liking to be at or near the lead, he’ll have to put himself into position to try and flank the leaders on the inside like American Pharoah did in 2015 to really have a chance to hold off #11 FOREVER YOUNG, the Japanese colt who does not like kickback and has been swung very wide in previous races to avoid it.  Or even #21 EPIC RIDE from the far outside post.  It will be really fascinating to see which horses go for the lead and which ones will be swung way out wide.

Speaking of Forever Young, most expert handicappers I follow do not seem to like this horse to win, or even really be in contention for the Derby.  As no Japanese-bred horse has ever won the Derby, and there have only ever been five non-American horses to win the coveted race, there seems to be a negativity about these international shippers.  But it feels as though Forever Young might be Japan’s best chance to date.  His breeding fits the bill as he has an American pedigree (bred for stamina & speed), he’s 5-5, has won in 3 different countries so far, he’s fast, has proven he can withstand adversity and his trainer has won in America before.  I also like this horse’s post position where most of the speed horses are to his inside.    

What I personally would like to see is a stretch duel between Fierceness and Forever Young.  This would be a magnificent way to find out if the American is the real deal who can string two major wins together or, if we will have the first Derby winner from the Land of the Rising Sun.

Then there’s JUST A TOUCH, Triple Crown winner Justify’s son who is a massive horse with huge strides and still improving.  Even though he’s lightly raced and has two second place finishes, this May foal likely has another step forward to make.  Will the pieces come together for him on Saturday?

Another horse I like to be in the mix is STRONGHOLD, the California based colt who is among the slower horses than those on top.  But, he’s also the oldest colt (a late Jan foal), a fighter, has the breeding and chill personality I like to see for a Derby contender, has won at CD before, and has never finished worse than second in six career starts.  While he’ll be breaking from an outside post that is not ideal for his running style, he generally breaks extremely well and has a great story/background that I love. (Sentimental favorite?).

And, what of the #2 SIERRA LEONE?  Where does this monster closer fit into my Derby winner’s circle? First, I am a huge fan of his daddy GUN RUNNER and I have loved this colt since he came onto the scene for the way he goes about his business.  There’s just something about deep closing Gun Runner colts I love like RED ROUTE ONE.  But I do worry about the inside post for Sierra Leone.  He could do what he’s done before, drop way back, ride the rail and then make a move to come down the stretch and use his speed to win.  Yet I wonder if he’ll be able to do that with all the traffic he’ll face and hasn’t faced before?  He’ll also be loading second and is a very large colt in a smaller gate than normal.  All in all, if he can get the trip, he’s the best closer on paper and I’d personally LOVE to see him win.

If it doesn’t work out for him, I like another closer in a better post and that is #4 CATCHING FREEDOM.  He has won at CD before (his maiden race), has the speed, distance breeding, is maturing, has gone way wide before and won, has a hot trainer (Brad Cox) and has been ridden by four different jocks and never regressed.  Thus, he has the versatility to get the job done if a deep closer is going to finish well in this race.

Finally, my long shot is #19 RESILIENCE.  He did win the Wood Memorial in which winners have finished no better than fourth since 2013 (ouch), but this colt seems to be on the rise, has raced at CD before, has the pedigree geared for success on Derby Day, and is known to be a “beautiful mover who runs hard.” 

Bottomline is that I think all roads lead through Fierceness. He’s going to get the trip or not. As the fastest horse and most accomplished in the field (proven), it’s his race to lose. And, he literally couldn’t be in any better hands than jockey John Velazquez who has won three Kentucky Derbies so far (2011, 2017, 2020). But, if he doesn’t fire, it’s a wide-open race that anyone (including a Japanese-bred contender) can win…

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