HORSE RACING – KENTUCKY DERBY 2023 PICKS
The real fun of the Kentucky Derby for me every year is the handicapping process of the twenty contenders who will fill the gate the first Saturday in May. I like the challenge of sifting through all the data to try and gauge from afar which horses have the chops to cross the finish line first.
And 2023 certainly has been a challenging handicapping process to say the least. The overall field is deep, includes mysterious Japanese competitors on the rise, there have been multiple scratches (4 so far), and the so-called “favorite” Forte, (while still a very strong contender) has shown signs of regression since his juvenile championship season, according to the numbers.
But I have managed to come up with my picks of those horses I think have all the components to succeed in the grueling Kentucky Derby. Of course, if any of these horses experiences a bad break at the start, anything can happen (and will) during the mile and a quarter contest on dirt in front of 150,000+ people.
ANGEL OF EMPIRE
I took a long, hard look at the field and concluded that due to his good post position, running style, steadily improving numbers, pedigree, tactical speed, success in his last two big races, experience in bigger fields and experienced jockey, this race may just be setting this Classic Empire colt up for a big win. There’s nothing that I could dig up about this colt that stood out as a negative for me. He even got a middle post with most of the speed to his inside, helping his chances even more based on his running style which is to be forwardly placed.
FORTE (SCRATCHED)
Forte is clearly the most accomplished horse in this field having won 5 graded stakes contests in a row. He’s also one of only two colts that have hit triple Brisnet Speed Figures along the Kentucky Derby Trail amongst the competitors. He was the Juvenile Champion of 2022; he’s faced adversity during races and still managed to win. BUT… Has he peaked already? A deep dive into the numbers seem to indicate he may have and that is worrying for a two-year champion colt. It’s why he’s not on the tippy-top of my list.
There’s a reason that only a small number of juvenile champions go on to win the Kentucky Derby in the same season. Thus, as Forte is showing a slight pattern of regression from a figure standpoint (after his 100 Beyer when winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he dropped to a 98 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and regressed even more so in his final Derby prep with a 95 Beyer), it stands to reason that the odds may be stacked against him in this one.
That being said, there is still reason to believe in Forte and his ability to throw down and continue his winning ways. I just don’t have that 100% confidence based on how history has played out for most of the juvenile champions of the past. But boy I hope I’m wrong. I would love to see Forte turn into a powerhouse right in front of our eyes on Saturday. He certainly has the right post to prove his doubters wrong, being in the middle of the pack, again with most of the speed to his inside.
TWO PHIL’S
I like everything this colt has to offer. He’s the son of Hard Spun (who came in second at the 2007 Kentucky Derby, 2007 Preakness and 2007 Breeders Cup Classic, among other victories) and his dam is from Birdstone pedigree (2004 Belmont Stakes winner). Also, Two Phil’s has shown tremendous versatility having raced on 6 different tracks, winning on 4 of those including at Churchill Downs and on the slop. His speed figures are also super impressive – his 107 Brisnet Speed Figure during his last race in April is the fastest among the competition. His personality is also apparently very chill and calm, a plus with all of those screaming fans at Churchill… But how will he handle the traffic with that inside post (#3)? Whatever the outcome, we’ll likely see this horse’s full potential on display further into the racing season when he faces smaller fields which I look forward to.
VERIFYING
This is another contender that has a bit of challenging inside post (#2). But perhaps this is not a bad thing for him if he rides the rail and even tries to take the lead at some point. It certainly is possible, as this son of Justify (2018 Triple Crown Winner) will have a top-five ranked jockey on his back (Gafflione) and has put down triple digit Brisnet speed figures in his last start. Yes, he was beat by Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass and the had the opportunity to go by him down the stretch, but if Verifying can take another leap forward, he just may place among the top of the pack.
DERMA SOTOGAKE & MANDARIN HERO
I like the speed figures I’ve seen from these two Japanese horses, particularly in the late fractions. I also understand that Japanese trained horses are taking the international racing community by storm. So, the real dilemma for me is deciding which has a better chance of winning at the Derby…
For Derma, we know that he won the UAE Derby at a similar distance to the Kentucky Derby. And his speed figures during that race indicate he has the fuel necessary to win. He also wired home the win in that race which he could do at the Derby as well. Thus, there certainly is enough data to suggest he could pull an upset, just like Mandarin Hero could. For Derma, however, I like what I have seen in the numbers for his progression and that puts him on top of the two. Still, I expect a good showing from Mandarin Hero who definitely can be considered a ringer in this race.
TAPIT TRICE
I couldn’t create a top winning candidates list for the Derby without mentioning the very talented and gorgeous grey, Tapit Trice. In 5 starts, he won 4 including the Blue Grass Stakes where he beat Verifying by a neck. He also has the speed numbers we like to see but mostly his late pace numbers are very impressive. It’s just that post he has (#5) which knocks him down my list, as this colt lacks mid-pack acceleration and which will be extra tough on a Derby horse in the middle of the pack. If only he pulled an outside post, I’d feel more confidence in him. Still, I hope that Luis Saez can steer Tapit Trice towards the outside to give this one a chance. It’d be a great redemption for Saez, too, after his ride Maximum Security was DQ’d at the Derby in 2019.
KINGSBARNS
This lightly raced son of Uncle Mo and Lady Tapit in the Kentucky Derby is intriguing to me due to the fact that he did not race as a two-year old but hit the ground running at the Fairgrounds in March where he won the Louisiana Derby over good competition, despite no real experience. The oldest horse in the Derby, perhaps having been born in January helped with the maturity of this colt over what others have not accomplished with a similar background. Does that mean he’s a Derby winner? Probably not. But I’m going to play him in my exotics.
MAGE
UPDATE, May 6 at 10am ET – Due to the scratches of now 5 horses from the Derby (Practical Move, Forte & Skinner were all on my contenders list), I am bringing up to my list Mage. I kept him off before due to his past habit of having bad breaks at the start of races, but there’s still much here to like. He was sired by Good Magic who came in second at the 2018 KD and his dam is a Big Brown mare (he won the 2008 KD & Preakness). And while Mage is lightly raced and has not won yet, his late speed figures indicate that this horse can keep up with the big boys. Another big plus is the fact that he has improved over the last two races with added distance. With a decent post and (hopefully) a good break, Mage just might be sitting on a terrific run here with a very experienced Derby jockey in Javier Castellano (15 tries – 0 wins).
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