HORSE RACING – MARCH 2019: MY EARLY KENTUCKY DERBY FAVORITES

Only six weeks left until the next Run for the Roses.  Seems like it comes up faster and faster every year… So, where do the contenders stand before the last prep races finish up?  

In a nutshell, there seems to be an excellent field unfolding for the 2019 Kentucky Derby. But, no major standout has come forward like last year’s Justify who, of course, won the Triple Crown.  

And, if you’re a fan of Hall of Fame winning trainer Bob Baffert, you’ll be happy to know he has at least three, if not four strong contenders that could make it into the big show.  

The brightest spot in Baffert’s barn and probably the best-looking horse right now on paper to win the Derby is Game Winner.  He was the two-year old champion, is one of the fastest horses in the Derby field, and almost went undefeated until he lost to Omaha Beach (literally by a nose) at the Div II Rebel Stakes last week after a four-month layoff.  

The handsome bay colt also has superb pedigree (sired by champion Candy Ride – 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner’s father) and plenty of stamina in his bloodlines for the 10-furlong Derby distance.   

His progression from a two-year old to a three-year old seems to be going in the right direction as well. Game Winner showed hardcore mettle when he had to fight for second place at the Rebel and that is exactly what a handicapper likes to see at this stage in the game from a colt in the Derby mix.

Another rising star that has shown a ton of speed, improvement and fortitude is the aforementioned Omaha Beach, trained by Richard Mandella.  I really liked his determined performance in the Rebel with the great Mike Smith on his back, having just broken his maiden and up against a tough field with the likes of the elite Game Winner.  

If this colt keeps improving, he has to be considered a favorite on Derby Day.  And, his variable running style (stalker/presser) is ideal for the contest along with his tactical speed.  It’ll be interesting to see how he does at either the Arkansas Derby or Santa Anita Derby in early April.  

Sharing the same sire as Omaha Beach is War of Will, trained by Mark Casse.  This colt has won his last two after breaking his maiden and currently is the leader on the Derby Prep Race Leaderboard by points.  He’s also shown good speed and his racing style is desirable (likes to be near the front).  

But, I have some concerns about his regression in speed from January where he put down a 107 Equibase figure at the Lecomte and followed it up with a 97 at the Risen Star a month later. That decline is not what we should see from a thoroughbred at this stage.  

Well, War of Will did start his career with four turf races and then has looked brilliant when switched to dirt (3-3).  I guess we’ll just wait and see what he does this Saturday at the Louisiana Derby when we should get a clearer picture of who this race horse really is versus a stacked field.  

Improbable, the second top horse trained by Baffert for the Derby and owned in part by China Club (Justify’s connections) is one to keep a sharp eye on for his speed, improvement and gritty performance at the Div I Rebel Stakes last week. 

While he did get beat out down the stretch by Long Range Toddy, Improbable gets kudos for being pushed way out wide and still recovered to almost get the win.  This was a nice development after a three-month layoff, particularly when his schedule has been upended by the unfortunate goings-on at Santa Anita.

Speaking of Long Range Toddy, we should be thinking positively about this wild card.  He rebounded from a third-place finish in the Southwest Stakes last month to come off the pace and upset the heavy favorite with a late burst at the Rebel last week.  Now with a 4-1-1 record in seven starts, he is being pointed towards the Arkansas Derby on April 13.  I can’t wait to see what he can do just weeks before the Kentucky Derby.

The Florida Derby will give me more clarity on three fascinating horses currently scheduled among the contenders for March 30:  Code of Honor, Harvey Wallbanger and Bourbon War.   All are lightly raced, but have shown improvement and speed.  The winner could come from this group and will gain more legitimacy, as 18 winners of this contest have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. 

As an aside, Code of Honor’s trainer, Shug McGaughey, took Orb from a win at the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby to victory at 2013 Kentucky Derby.  (Code of Honor won the FOY earlier this month…)

The Wood Memorial on April 6 will also showcase some intriguing potentials like Tacitus, Haikal, and Tax.  From 1930 to 2000, 11 winners of the Wood Memorial went on to win the Kentucky Derby, but not since that time has a winner here gone on to glory the first Saturday in May.   

To find the full schedule for the remaining prep races, go to the official Kentucky Derby website.  

• Next up, is the Louisiana Derby on NBCSN at 5:30pm EDT, tomorrow, Saturday March 23 followed by a special presentation of the Road to the Kentucky Derby at 6:30pm EDT, a new series to help you get caught up on the horses and action as we head into the final stretch of the Kentucky Derby Prep Season.

• Saturday, March 30, NBCSN – the Florida Derby at 6:00pm EDT, followed by the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Episode 2.

• Saturday, April 6, NBCSN – Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Stakes & Santa Anita Derby at 5:30pm EDT, followed by the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Episode 3.

• Saturday, April 13, NBCSN – Arkansas Derby at 7:00pm EDT.

• Saturday, April 20, NBCSN – Road to the Kentucky Derby, Episode 4 (TBD).

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at https://theladylovessports.com/contact.