KENTUCKY DERBY – 2021 PICKS

If you look around the internet to survey which horse expert handicappers are picking to win this year’s Kentucky Derby, you’ll likely find a more varied response than usual.

While we may have a solid field of contenders lining up to vie for America’s most famous race, some handicappers consider this year’s “favorite” a cut below those in recent past due to a spattering of big upsets and injuries along the Kentucky Derby Trail.  Add to that a string of enigmatic contenders each with unanswered questions of their own, opinions seem to be all over the place as to who people think will win the 2021 Run for the Roses.

Make no mistake, the 2-1 morning line favorite Essential Quality is certainly getting my respect.  He’s the most accomplished horse in the field having won five of five races including four graded stakes wins.  The grey son of Tapit also has top notch connections behind him with the deep pockets of Godolphin Stables and the up-and-coming superstar Brad Cox as his trainer.  And his home base is Churchill Downs where he has won before.

But I’ve noticed that Essential Q’s relatively modest career high Beyer speed figure of 97 coming into the Derby has opened the door for handicappers to entertain the notion that another contender might just cross the finish first and perhaps it even being a long shot.  I agree, somewhat.

Tactical speed really is key for a horse to win the Kentucky Derby, along with stamina.  Those two qualities are historically the main assets winners of the Derby had down pat at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. 

That said, we know Essential Q possesses good tactical speed, but there are other horses who have put down faster speed numbers than him and who also possess other characteristics we expect to see in a Kentucky Derby winner.  

Those are the contenders I think the winner could come from, along with Essential Quality: 

Rock Your World is the fastest horse in the field being the only Derby contender to post a triple-digit Beyer figure.  He also has proven to be versatile on different surfaces and running styles, is bred for stamina, has an excellent post position (#15) and has had good workouts this week leading up to the Derby.  He’s also been endorsed by Bob Baffert and I take that kind of compliment seriously from a man who tied the record for most Kentucky Derby wins by a horse trainer.  Most importantly, I like that Rock Your World has the potential to go wire to wire which is exactly what this lightly raced horse needs under the tough conditions.  “He’s got a high cruising speed that he can carry at a classic distance,” his trainer John Sadler said.  That sounds good to me.

Hot Rod Charlie has looked steady coming into the Derby, possesses the speed we need to see, has a good post (#9), a favorable running style where he can either press or stalk the pace and has recorded good workouts at Churchill Downs.  I do question his stamina as his bloodlines seem to leave a question mark of whether he’ll get the 10 furlongs at the Derby.  But HR Charlie did win at the Louisiana Derby which was 9.5 furlongs and that certainly bodes well for him.  If he continues to take after his poppa (Oxbow), I expect this colt to be in the mix at the finish line on Saturday.  

Highly Motivated will run out of post position #17.  No horse has ever won the Derby from that post.  But there’s got to be a first time, right?  What I like about this colt is his decent speed figures, versatile running style, and ability to stay up close as well as his breeding (a half-brother to Authentic, 2020 KD winner).  And Highly Motivated almost beat Essential Quality and that shows he can literally run with the favorite.  Rematch?

Mandaloun – I’m not giving up on this horse who had a bad outing last time.  I know, that breaks my cardinal rule about only choosing horses that are on the rise to win the Derby.  But I don’t think it’s out of the question that with his speed, breeding and running style, he could be a factor.  

LONGSHOT – Midnight Bourbon.  I have a soft spot for this fighter.  He’s hit the board in all seven starts during his career, has proven to be versatile, is improving, has an excellent post and a good running style to win the Derby.  He’ll also be ridden by hall of famer Mike Smith who you know will get the best out of this colt and his trainer Steve Asmussen is due to have his Kentucky Derby win any time now.  If not a winner, I hope to see this colt finish towards the top of the leaderboard.

ONE MORE WORD ABOUT ESSENTIAL QUALITY – I expect Rock Your World to go to the front and try to win wire to wire.  But, if he does not and/or is overtaken down the stretch, Essential Quality should be there to pick up the pieces.  He’ll be ridden by jockey Luis Saez who was on Maximum Security when he won the 2019 Derby and was later disqualified.  It’ll be interesting to see how Saez rebounds from that debacle. He has since improved and proved himself, but this will be a huge redemption race for Saez.  I also can’t say enough about Brad Cox who is poised to bring home this race, the biggest of his life.  Without a typically tough Baffert horse in the running this year, it just might be Cox’s time to shine.

  

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