PREAKNESS STAKES – 2021 PICKS

There will be ten contenders in tomorrow’s Preakness Stakes, but this race is setting up to become an epic battle between two horses (Medina Spirit and Concert Tour), both Bob Baffert trainees who like to be forwardly placed.  

Knowing that these two are the most decorated of the Preakness contenders and given the fact that they will likely be on or near the lead, it is quite possible these Baffert horses will have total control over the pace and flow of the race, enough to secure a win for either horse.  

At the same time, if either Medina Spirit or Concert Tour duel it out for the lead and push each other down the stretch, it is unlikely the jockeys will push the pace beyond the boundaries their colts could handle.  Thus, I do not see the pace collapsing up front and a closer coming in to win.  I see the better of these two horses gutting it out at the finish line, along with a mid-pack or stalker-style of runner right behind them or with them.  

In my mind, the best of the stalkers and mid-packers is Midnight Bourbon, who finished sixth at the Kentucky Derby.  He has shown to be a fighter and consistently gives his all in every race he’s entered.  I am hesitant to say he is on the same level as the Baffert-California trained horses, but it would be amazing if he were to somehow take the win from those other two… Still, I am pretty convinced either Medina Spirit or Concert Tour has the best shot to prevail in the Preakness tomorrow. 

So, which one will it be? 

It is a fact that Medina Spirit proved himself as the one to beat in the Preakness since he won the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago.  I am not bothered in any way by the so-called doping “scandal” in which the colt failed a drug test after the Derby.  I’ve done enough research to understand the amount of the banned substance in the colt’s system was so small it would have had no effect on his performance.  And from the info I’ve read, it is very likely that Medina Spirit will be cleared and retain his crown.

That aside, his stablemate, the promising Concert Tour (once thought to be the early Derby favorite in Baffert’s barn) skipped Churchill Downs after a deflating third place finish in the Arkansas Derby in April.  Instead, the speedy well-bred colt was pointed towards Pimlico for a run at the second leg in the Triple Crown.

This point brings me to the major advantage Concert Tour has over Medina Spirit in the Preakness: freshness.  The last time he raced was five weeks ago versus Medina Spirit who won the Derby two weeks ago.  

There’s also something so good about Concert Tour’s breeding and connections that makes me think this one is headed towards greatness.  Coming from the same owners/barn as Maximum Security, Concert Tour’s sire is the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense who also came in second at the Preakness that year.  And Concert Tour’s dam is a Tapit mare.

Concert Tour will also be ridden by the great Mike Smith tomorrow.  He jumped off the saddle of Midnight Bourbon to ride Concert Tour, perhaps thinking he picked the better option to win.  The question remains, what kind of mettle will Concert Tour show at the Preakness?  

The way his career has unfolded so far leaves a great uncertainty for handicappers like me.  He came up through the ranks quickly in 2021, winning three in a row including the Rebel Stakes.  Then, inexplicably, he finished third at the Arkansas in April.  No one seems to know the reason why, only that he looked “flat”.   

One thing I know for sure, Concert Tour’s speeds have been excellent and faster than Medina Spirit’s speed times through April, by comparison.  And, even if Concert Tour doesn’t have the lead tomorrow, he’s never been farther back from the leader more than 2.5 lengths which would put him in a great position to win.

All that said, do I give Concert Tour an advantage over Medina Spirit in tomorrow’s Preakness?  I’m torn, but I don’t think so. 

Medina Spirit had a dream trip in the Kentucky Derby.  He broke clean from the eight post.  He took the lead right away and never was pushed or challenged by anyone else.  That let him set the pace and coast home for the win.   He also did not have extra distance to travel unlike his contenders as he stayed inside and was never bumped or challenged at the start.

That perfect trip likely won’t be duplicated at the Preakness tomorrow.  If Medina Spirit takes the lead, he’ll have Concert Tour and Midnight Bourbon breathing down his neck, among others.  And with a ten-horse field, no one should have to worry about being pushed wide or having extra distance like what can happen in the Derby.

But, as Baffert said after the Kentucky Derby, “[Medina Spirit] is an overachiever.  His heart is bigger than his body.”  That statement means so much in the world of horseracing.  We’ve seen it time and again – horses like Concert Tour who are bred for the big moments fall short and get beat by someone like Medina Spirit who was purchased for $35,000 at a sale when he was 2 years old. 

One more thing to say about Medina Spirit: He’s already pushed beyond his expectations and proven himself.  That is not something Concert Tour has done yet and so, I’m not ready to take a chance on a colt who faltered enough on the Kentucky Derby trail that his owners took him out of the biggest race on the calendar for three-year olds.  

In the end, I think the Preakness 2021 will shape up similar to the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the Kentucky Derby for Medina Spirit – when he took the lead, held off quality competitors all the way to the end and at the finish line, he overachieved and used his heart to win.

Honorable mention:  KEEPMEINMIND.  I said before that I didn’t believe a closer would hit the board in this race, but if the pace does collapse up front, it could open the door for this colt who has some buzz surrounding him right now.  As a two-year old, Keepmeinmind looked to be on the rise.  He won the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes but his journeyman trainer, Robertino Diodoro, claims a series of bad trips and weather issues combined to “throw this horse off track”.  But Diodoro feels the horse is doing “great” now and he’s training where he wants him.  It also shows a great deal of confidence in the horse that his owners sent him on to the Preakness from the Kentucky Derby where he finished a strong seventh.  

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