PREAKNESS STAKES 2020 – PICKS
The bizarre sports year that is 2020 continues on… Instead of its usual place as the second jewel of the Triple Crown on the third Saturday in May, the Preakness Stakes is taking place on the first Saturday in October this year and will be last in the series.
Despite this oddity in the race calendar, we really can’t complain. The prestigious race could have been canceled outright. It’s really the Stronach Group which owns Pimlico Race Course who are likely the most disappointed in what’s gone on this year. Due to Covid concerns, no audience will be in attendance at the track. The usual draw for the Preakness ranks second in turn out only to the Kentucky Derby. Ouch.
But, on the track, it’ll be a different story. This year’s Preakness is stacking up to be a super competitive and exciting race. Among the eleven (11) contenders is the Kentucky Derby winner (Authentic) and several talented and fresh arrivals to the scene who have the potential to upset our champ.
So, let’s get to it…
Do I think anyone will upset AUTHENTIC? Maybe. Sorry, I just can’t be more confident than that. If you read my Kentucky Derby 2020 Picks column, you may recall that I faded the Bob Baffert trained Authentic in the Run for the Roses. I hadn’t seen what I needed from the colt in prior races to think he’d outrun Tiz the Law. But, he did. Authentic took the lead in the final stretch at Churchill Downs and finished 1 1/4 lengths in front of all other contenders, including the favorite. I was shocked by the result, and many of the experts were as well.
I also remarked in that same column, “If [Authentic] does hold on and finish in the top three, then he really is improving like Baffert has said and I will give that horse more respect moving forward.” I will hold on to that truth. BUT, I do wonder if Authentic will be more tired than others having just run such a big race in September. There are at least three (3) other new opponents entering the scene that are just as fast as he is and better rested.
One of those is ART COLLECTOR. This is the big buzz horse outside of Authentic in this year’s Preakness Stakes. I’ve seen more than enough expert’s picks to make me pay attention to this one. He may have missed the Kentucky Derby due to a minor foot problem, but many have said he had a good chance to upset Authentic if he had been in the race. What I also like about this colt is his sire is Bernardini who won the Preakness in 2006. In addition, Art Collector hasn’t raced since August, his workouts have been good leading up to this race, he has the speed required and his racing style (pace/press) will have a huge impact on how things turn out. Now, do I think he’s in the same league as Authentic? I’m not prepared to say that. He doesn’t have the results to match up (yet). If he does win the Preakness, we will have a new big boy in town.
The next horse I really like to finish in the top five is SWISS SKYDIVER, a filly with the most extensive race history of all the others in the competition (1 Grade III; 4 Grade II; and 2 Grace I races). She just hasn’t stopped competing since February. Will another race be too much too soon for her? And, should her second place to Art Collector in July at the Blue Grass Stakes be concerning? Not to me. In that race, I feel she was put too much on the lead. Plus, her speed figures seem to indicate continued improvement. In any event, we will have about five horses that like to be at or near the lead in this race, including our girl Swiss. It should be interesting.
Another colt that has turned my head is the late maturing PNEUMATIC. He put down a 113 Equibase speed figure in August at the Pegasus Stakes and was a mighty impressive first place winner. He also came in fourth at the Belmont Stakes in June. But, I think this horse’s true upsides are that he’s improving rapidly, his stalking racing style is perfect for this race, and he hasn’t saddled up since August. All of these conditions might come together perfectly for this colt. The only worry may be his outside post two doors down from Max Player who will be ridden by Paco Lopez. He’s known to be an “aggressive” rider who was previously suspended from racing this year due to “continuous careless riding”. And, it appears to many that he tried to take out some horses to the outside of him at the Kentucky Derby, including Honor A. P., one of the favorites. Judge for yourself: https://twitter.com/SaratogaSlim/status/1302430280305840130.
I’m rounding out my top five with THOUSAND WORDS, the second of Bob Baffert’s entrants. He was entered in the Derby, but had fallen in the paddock just before the start of the race and was scratched. Luckily, he did not sustain any injuries and is good to go for the Preakness. I had picked this horse to excel over Authentic in the Kentucky Derby. Maybe I missed the mark on this one, but the talent here can’t be denied. Yes, he can be a handful, but if he shows up and runs a clean race, he could be in the money.
MR. BIG MONEY is an intriguing horse to keep in mind for this race as a long-shot. He came in third at the Kentucky Derby behind Authentic and Tiz the Law and word is he has been settling in well at Pimlico and loves the track. Max Player may be another good closer and has finished consistently well in his career, but Mr. Big Money has my attention right now.
MY TOP FIVE
AUTHENTIC
ART COLLECTOR
SWISS SKYDIVER
PNEUMATIC
THOUSAND WORDS
Long Shot: MR. BIG MONEY
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