HORSE RACING – BREEDERS’ CUP 2021 – TVG JUVENILE PICKS
I’ve noticed that most American sports fans don’t generally follow horse racing except for the Triple Crown which takes place within a five-week period every spring.
It’s a shame, really. There are so many other fun year-round races I think the casual horse racing fan would enjoy.
One such event is the Breeders’ Cup World Championships coming up this weekend.
Considered one of the world’s biggest and best annual sports festivals, the BC offers fourteen Grade 1 thoroughbred races presented over two days.
And there’s basically a race for every kind of fan in the mix. Like short races on grass? Or longer dirt races? Prefer to watch fillies and mares only? Fast sprints? The Breeders’ Cup has them all.
Plus, there is a focus on the world’s finest younger horses (two-year old “juveniles”), many we will see again in the Triple Crown. On Friday (Nov 5) they will be showcased across five races.
On Saturday (Nov 6), horses three-years old and up will see action in a series of nine races.
But, out of them all, two races come to mind that I think the casual horse race fan would especially enjoy.
One is the TVG Juvenile which will bring together the top two-year-old thoroughbreds on dirt just getting started on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
The other is the Longines Classic, North America’s richest horse race with a $6 million purse. Offered to the best three-year-olds and up on dirt, it will not only decide Horse of the Year, but some experts have predicted this year’s race could be one of the most competitive in the event’s history.
Today, I will provide a little more background for the Juvenile, handicap the contenders and (hopefully) provide an incentive for casual horse racing fans to tune in for a preview of the best two-year-olds in the world.
Tomorrow I will post about the Longines Classic.
TVG JUVENILE
Purse – $2 million
Distance – 1 1/16 miles
Surface – Dirt
Age – 2
WHEN: Friday, Nov 5, 2021 | 7:50pm EDT
In almost exactly six months from now, twenty horses will be preparing to line up across the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. Likely in the mix will be some of the top finishing horses of the annual Breeders’ Cup “TVG” Juvenile.
This race typically assembles the best of the early developing North American juvenile horses for the first time and is also the first of the twenty-point races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Interestingly, only two horses in history have won both the Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby since the Breeders’ Cup inception in 1984: Street Sense (2006-7) and Nyquist (2015-16).
Additionally, only two horses have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby after a place or show finish in the Juvenile (Spend A Buck – 1984-5 and Alysheba in 1986-7).
The main reason for this is the difficulty in keeping a horse in peak condition from the age of two through to the Kentucky Derby.
But those facts do not make this race any less thrilling. Horses who finish first at the Juvenile gain a certain cache beyond that of becoming the favorite for the Derby. It’s a prestigious distinction for both the horse and trainer that will follow both of them throughout their careers.
So, who do we have lining up at the starting gate this year in the TVG Juvenile? I like what I see!
By post position, morning line odds:
1. JACK CHRISTOPHER (SCR) – This chestnut colt is the morning line favorite. He’s 2-2 so far in his young career having won a 6-furlong maiden in August and the G1 Champagne (1 mile) last month. Jack also has the fastest Beyer Speed Figure over all others in the race. While this will be his first race going two turns, it doesn’t seem a concern for trainer Chad Brown, who was reportedly wowed by this horse the first time he saw him work out. The colt has since surpassed expectations and Brown is confident that he’ll stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in addition to two turns. I think the inside post should help save some distance and I also like how much he won his maiden by (8 3/4 lengths).
2. JASPER GREAT (15-1) – Japanese-trained, this grey colt is a son of Arrogate, the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. So, of course he turns my head. Then there is his one big win at the Hanshin. He went 1 1/8 miles from post two and won that race by ten lengths. I’m putting him on the radar for sure, but it’s hard to tell how young horses will handle shipping in from such a far distance. Still, if Jasper’s connections think it’s worth the risk, he could be a big wild card here. This is a fascinating one to watch.
3. OVIATT CLASS (20-1) – A Keith Desormeaux trained, and Kent Desormeaux ridden Bernardini colt. He started his career out on turf at a mile and then was moved to dirt for six furlongs, finishing in third. Finally at his third race, he stretched out a bit more on dirt showing improvement. Then last month at the G1 American Pharoah, he came flying from far back to finish an impressive third. Seems like the brothers are trying to figure this colt out, but I like where they are going with him. I would not count out this one, especially given what his sire has accomplished (Bernardini won the 2006 Preakness, Jim Dandy, Travers Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and was second at the 2006 BC Classic).
4. PAPPACAP (15-1) – Here we go… This is Gun Runner’s first graded stakes winning kid ready to make his statement. So far during his young career, Pappacap has gone 2-4 for trainer Mark Casse, but he did come in second at the American Pharoah last month right behind Bob Baffert’s Corniche. With his pedigree, I expect he will have no problems making two turns and he should be in the mix at the end of this race on Friday having made two runs at Del Mar already, including a win. As for the future, I will keep a close eye on this colt. Gun Runner is one of my favorite all-time horses and brought me many great memories. We’ll see if his kid can match his success. It may take some time, though- Gun Runner seemed to be at his very best during his four and five-year-old campaigns.
5. DOUBLE THUNDER (20-1) – This is a Todd Pletcher-trained colt and owned by WinStar Farm. He is the most experienced of all the contenders in this race with five starts already, having won three and finished second in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity which went the same distance. Being a closer while learning the ropes is a tall task for this race but his father Super Saver won the 2010 Kentucky Derby so it wouldn’t be surprising if this colt flashed something special on Friday.
6. AMERICAN SANCTUARY (30-1) – Another deep closer who finished twice behind Double Thunder, it doesn’t seem likely this colt will make a statement tomorrow. But I did like how he performed in the Breeders Cup Futurity last month in a large field when he came from last to finish fourth. I’d like to see how this one improves as the season goes on. Also, I really love how Florent Geroux can seem to get the best performance out of the colts he rides, including Gun Runner. Something to watch tomorrow.
7. GIANT GAME (30-1) – A very lightly raced dark bay colt, he has only two races under his belt including a maiden win at 1 1/16 miles last month. But he is the son of Giant’s Causeway, a Kentucky-bred horse who was primarily raced in Europe by the great Aidan O’Brien. Giant’s Causeway was a very successful horse, having won six Grade 1 races, placed second in four Grade 1 races, never came in third or worse, and was named European Horse of the Year in 2000. Now deceased, Giant’s Causeway’s best performing children have competed on turf and are known to be more later-maturing horses. So, we should expect Giant Game to use the Juvenile as valuable experience and keep an eye on him for the future.
8. BAROSSA (10-1) – The first of three Bob Baffert horses we will profile in this race, Barossa has raced three times and got his first win last month at a mile. This is not much to write home about. Baffert has also said of this colt, “he reminds me a little bit of (2020 Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner) Authentic, because he’s very immature and it’s taken him a while.” This tells us of course that potential is there but we may have to wait a while to see it. Which begs the question as to why he entered Barossa in this race? Well, this horse was a very expensive acquisition ($775,000) as a son of leading sire Into Mischief who was Authentic’s sire. Much is on the line here for the owners in this respect.
Also, it is likely that because Baffert has been suspended from the 2022 and 2023 Kentucky Derbies and horses trained by him on the Road to the Kentucky are not allowed to receive points because of the suspension, he may be just racing this colt for the experience and for the owners. Points on the Road to the Derby don’t really start adding up until February when prep races garner as much as 50 points (100 qualifying points later in the season to the winner) and those finishing in the top four of any of the last eight Derby preps should have enough to qualify. If Barossa happens to mature in time and flashes his potential like the other Baffert horses, he will likely be transferred to another barn to get into the Kentucky Derby.
9. PINEHURST (8-1) – The second of the Baffert horses, this one has two wins in two starts, including the G1 Del Mar Futurity. And while both these races were under eight furlongs, this colt has shown impressive speed and the ability to go wire to wire. There is not much more information about this colt besides the fact that his half-brother is Rombauer, the 2021 Preakness winner. My feeling is that this horse is in a similar place as Barossa in his career and circumstances as a Baffert trainee on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. But this one may be more mature and does have a chance to cross the finish line in the top five on Friday as Baffert and the great Mike Smith (who rode Pinehurst in the Del Mar Futurity) had positive things to say about this colt in the past.
10. COMMANDPERFORMANCE (5-1) – This gray colt, son of Union Rags and trained by Todd Pletcher, is considered a “maiden”, or a horse who has never won a race yet. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t put in a fine performance in his early career yet. Indeed, Commandperformance came in second to Jack Christopher last month in the Champagne Stakes and was gaining on him near the finish line. And if more distance than a mile, he may have beaten Jack. It is fair to say then, that this horse should be considered a close second favorite. Looking at Beyer Speed Figures, he wasn’t that far off from Jack Christopher either.
11. TOUGH TO TAME (30-1) – Not much is expected of this son of Speightster in this race. He may be 2-2 and came in a close second at the G3 Iroquois in September, but he ran a very slow time in that race and faced easy competition. On a more interesting note, he will be ridden by 33-year old British-born female jockey, Sophie Doyle, daughter of former trainer Jacqueline Doyle and sister to top ranked European jockey James Doyle. Considered a rising star, Sophie Doyle departed the UK for the US in 2013 where female jockeys are not typically as successful as elsewhere in the world. Still, she is currently ranked the 200th best jockey in the world and the top female jockey in North America. Her brother James will ride in four events at the Breeders’ Cup (BC Juvenile Turf, Filly & Mare Turf, BC Mile and BC Turf).
12. CORNICHE (5-2) – As the third Baffert horse, Corniche seems to be the most talented and well-bred of the trio. This son of Quality Road is 2-2, having won his maiden race at Del Mar and came in first at the 1 1/16 miles G1 American Pharoah last month over Pappacap and Oviatt Class. He was ridden in that race and will be ridden here by Mike Smith, who chose him over Pinehurst. Unfortunately, they will be coming from the far outside post which will be very challenging. But the experience should prove to be good for the connections in finding out what kind of mettle this $1.5 million horse really has. Perhaps most exciting about this colt is that he has proven himself around two turns already and at the same distance in the Pharoah. If not for the outside post, Corniche likely would have been the morning line favorite, and mine.
FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE JUVENILE
It’s almost impossible for me to feel confident about picking a winner from a bunch of two-year-old horses going around a two-turn race and at a distance most haven’t even tried before. But I feel pretty good about Jack Christopher crossing the finish line in the top three. I also like Commandperformance to finish well along with Corniche, if Mike Smith can help him get a good break. I’m also picking Pappacap as a top finisher and I like Oviatt Class to come screaming down the stretch as the best of the closers.
Good luck to them all! Luckily, the weather won’t be an issue this weekend in southern California.
UPDATE – OFFICIAL RESULTS:
- Corniche
- Pappacap
- Giant’s Game
- Commandperformance
- Oviatt Class
*Jack Christopher scratched
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at https://theladylovessports.com/contact.