HORSE RACING – 2022 BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC PREDICTIONS

A fascinating race is setting up to take place today at the 2022 Breeders Cup Classic – I hope everyone reading this article will take their chance to see what should turn out to be a great one…

There may only be eight competitors in the field ready to line up in the gate today at the Breeders Cup Classic, but several of these experienced 3+ year-olds have the goods to cross the finish line first.  

The thing is, there is one horse in the field that you’ve likely never heard of, but comparisons to Secretariat have been thrown around for weeks making him the outright favorite.  

His name is Flightline and he is a 4-year old colt who will run from the #4 post.  This son of Tapit never raced as a two-year-old due to an injury and was not ready to run in the Triple Crown races when he was three years old.  He was finally ready to make his debut in April 2021 and it started what was to become an undefeated stretch for this super talented colt.

Trained by John Sadler, Flightline won his maiden race by 13.25 lengths.  Six months later in September 2021, he won an allowance race by 12.75 lengths.  In December 2021, the colt went on to win the G1 Malibu Stakes, once again demolishing the competition, this time by 11.5 lengths.  

The capper is that Flightline put down triple digit speed figures in each of these wins making him only the sixth horse in recent memory to record three triple-digit Beyers during his first three career starts.  Statistically, it makes him, “this generation’s fastest horse”.  

Taking another six months pause, Flightline’s connections decided to race him in June 2022 at the G1 Metropolitan Mile which he won by six lengths, a race in which he started slow with a bad break.  

His last race came three months later in September of this year at the G1 Pacific Classic with a bump up in distance, from 1 mile to 1 1/4 miles.  Well, this was his best win yet when he beat the field by almost 20 lengths, conjuring up images of Secretariat’s 1973 Belmont Stakes wallop.  And once again, Flightline was clocked going super-fast. His 128-winning Beyer speed in the Pacific Classic equaled the second-fastest performance since 2004 (Ghostzapper).  

All told, Flightline has won his five starts by a combined total of 62.75 lengths, or about the length of 1.75 football fields and he’s doing it with speed figures we’ve not seen in a long time.

And then there’s Flightline’s versatility and ability to overcome adversity.  He can come from off the pace or set the pace.  He can sprint at a mile and win from a longer distance.  When he has had a bad break at the start of a race, he’s shown the ability to relax down the stretch and win.  He’s the full package and the entire racing world expects he will be spectacular in today’s Breeders Cup Classic.

Of course, Flightline needs to get by seven other very worthy competitors who earned their right to line up against him in Keeneland.  Among others, they include Rich Strike – the 2022 Kentucky Derby winner, Epicenter– the second-place winner of the 2022 Kentucky Derby, Life is Good – the 2022 Pegasus winner and Bob Baffert’s promising star – Taiba sired by Gun Runner and who continues to improve.   Oh, and then there’s Hot Rod Charlie, who is based in Keeneland (where the Breeders Cup is being held) and who came in third in the 2021 Kentucky Derby and second in the 2021 Belmont Stakes.  

Obviously, this competition for Flightline in this race is insane.  Some are saying this is the best field in the history of the Breeders Cup Classic.  In the very least, it’s going to take Flightline’s best run to get the job done.  And if he can do it, against this competition, his reputation will skyrocket and this race will put him on the map.

For me, I personally am not going against the grain and I pick Flightline to win today.  I can’t overlook what he’s done in his lightly raced career so far and how he has done it.  He has the potential to come away after this race as this generation’s Secretariat and I fully embrace that sentiment.

But, if he stumbles, I am high on Epicenter, the hard trying colt by Not This Time trained by Steve Asmussen.  The three-year old won in August at the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes and word is he has been steadily improving since then, which is a very good sign for me.  If he doesn’t win today, he will certainly be in the mix at the end.

I also like Life is Good who is more seasoned than Flightline and has been training particularly well leading up to this race.  What worries me a tad about him though, is the distance which he’s never gone before and his style of racing in which he needs the front.  Since Flightline also likes the front, could this impact Life is Good in a negative way?  Will he feel pushed?  

Another colt I really like to pick up the pieces if Flightline does not run his race is Taiba, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by the great Mike Smith.  I like that Taiba has shown improvement since his disastrous twelfth place at the 2022 Kentucky Derby by coming in second at the Haskell in July and winning the Pennsylvania Derby in September.  The best part is that he used his natural acceleration to get that last win just weeks ago so I expect he’ll use it today.  I can see Taiba to continue to race in 2023, as his sire Gun Runner got even better with age.  The good news for Taiba is that several of his tough competitors are expected to retire to stud soon. This would give him the ability to shine in his fourth and possibly fifth season.

Finally, there’s something about Bill Mott’s Olympiad that I like right now.  Since February, this Speightstown colt has gone 5-1 and most recently won the G1 Jockey Gold Club in September which was 1 1/4 miles long.  He also likes to stay just off the pace which he should do today.  I like him to round out the top 5, at least.

In the end, I expect Life is Good to take the lead with Flightline flanking him.  If Flightline runs his best race, he will take command down the stretch and put the others away.  The question remains: Just how fast can he go in this race on a fast track?

POST TIME: November 5, 2022 – 5:40pm E.T. on NBC

***UPDATE**** RESULTS:

Flightline (WINNER), Olympiad (SECOND), Taiba (THIRD); Epicenter – injured & pulled up

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