HORSE RACING – BREEDERS’ CUP 2021 – DISTAFF PICKS
DISTAFF
Purse – $2 million
Distance – 1 1/8 miles
Surface – Dirt
Age – Fillies and Mares 3+
WHEN: SATURDAY, NOV 6, 2021 | 7:00PM EDT
Previously known as the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic from 2008-2012, the Distaff showcases the best female dirt horses in the world and often determines who will be crowned Horse of the Year or Champion Older Filly or Mare.
This year, we have a very deep field that is shaping up to give us one of the most intriguing races of the weekend.
Worth taking note of in this race is the three-year-old Malathaat who won the Kentucky Oaks in May. After a 77-day layoff, she makes her return and will face off for the first time against older females in their prime like Letruska and Shedaresthedevil, rivals who have beaten each other this year.
The field by post position and morning-line odds:
1. PRIVATE MISSION (8-1) – One of two entrants for Bob Baffert in this race, this three-year-old filly is 4-5 lifetime. Her most recent win was an easy one at the 1 1/16 m (G2) Zenyatta Stakes in October over stablemate As Time Goes By, also in this competition. After that race, Baffert said of the Into Mischief filly, “She’s on the improve, getting better and better”, which is music to my ears. But the concern is her lower speed figures compared to others in this race, especially for a horse that likes to be near the front. Still, riding the rail could help her.
2. ROYAL FLAG (8-1) – The first of two proteges in this race for Chad Brown, this five-year-old sired by Candy Ride, has been routinely run (9 races) at 1 1/16 miles since early 2020. Her latest win was the (G1) Beldame where she beat Horologist, also in this race. As a late runner, she’d really need to have her jets in full swing to beat the leaders, not likely in my mind. But Brown is confident about her. “She’s training very well and I like how she’s coming in,” he said recently.
3. MALATHAAT (4-1) – This three-year-old Curlin filly is trained by Todd Pletcher. Her biggest win was the 2021 Kentucky Oaks, the female equivalent of the Kentucky Derby. The Distaff will be her first-time racing against older horses and the hype of a match-up between this filly and the accomplished five-year-old morning-line favorite Letruska is real. “It’s what you would expect from any Breeders’ Cup Distaff,” Pletcher said. “It’s a collection of the best fillies and mares in the country. You’ve got some speed in there. You’ve got some closers. You’ve got some 3-year-old fillies, the best older mares… Hopefully, there is a good, honest pace to run at and we can let our filly do her thing. She is kind of ideally suited to be a stalker. She enjoys a target.”
4. BLUE STRIPE (30-1) – Making her US debut in this race is the half-sister to 2019 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff Winner Blue Prize. Trained in Argentina, Blue Stripe arrived in America in May after a six-month layoff. Since then, she has had 18 works. The concerns include the long time away from racing, the lack of experience on American race tracks and presence in front of large crowds. She will be ridden by European superstar jockey Frankie Dettori, but the information is too limited to make an informed decision on this filly for this race.
5. CLAIRIERE (12-1) – Steve Asmussen trains this three-year-old Curlin filly. Overall, her record is 3-9 but does include graded stakes wins, a fourth-place appearance at the 2021 Kentucky Oaks, and a second place showing at the Alabama when she was beaten by Malathaat. In fact, Clairiere has come behind the Kentucky Oaks winner three separate times this year. That is why I couldn’t pick this hard-trying mid-pack filly to win this race.
6. LETRUSKA (8-5) – The morning line favorite is a five-year-old Super Saver mare trained by Fausto Gutierrez. Since having blinkers removed, she has won her last five races in a row. Four of those five were G1 wins. I really like the consistency of this mare, her ability to go wire to wire and her speed figures have remained steady and fast since last year. Slight concerns is the amount of racing she’s done and it always seems she has close finishes. Still, she manages to stave off the competition so it’ll be interesting to see if Malathaat can chase her down assuming Letruska takes the lead in this race.
7. HOROLOGIST (30-1) – A five-year-old pacesetter, this Bill Mott trained mare is very experienced with 22 races under her belt. She’s also a specialist at this distance. I don’t believe she’ll stand up to the competition as she came in ninth in last year’s Distaff and was beaten by Royal Flag last month.
8. SHEDARESTHEDEVIL (4-1) – The Brad Cox trained four-year-old filly won the 2020 Kentucky Oaks and since then has gone 4-6 including two Grade 1 victories. Her last win was in September in the Locust Grove. This is also the only filly to beat Latruska this year. It was in March at the Azeri Stakes when Shedaresthedevil took the lead from the start thereby keeping Latrusa out of her element. Shedares won by a nose at the finish line in that race. Since then, Latruska turned the tables and beat her (in June). I’m not sure she can beat Latruska the third time around but she has a good chance. Anything can happen.
9. AS TIME GOES BY (15-1) – The second Baffert horse is a four-year-old American Pharoah filly. She took some time to break her maiden and seemed to finally come into her own earlier this year with a pair of Grade 2 wins at the Santa Margarita and Santa Maria Stakes. But she has gone 0-3 since then, including a sixth-place finish in August when Letruska was victorious at the Personal Ensign. To me, this filly seems to be inconsistent with lower recent speeds than the other finer competitors in this race. A positive is she will have a new rider in Luis Saez who may be able to get more from her.
10. MARCHE LORRAINE (30-1) – A win at the Breeders’ Gold Cup in August helped this Japanese trained mare get into this race. She also has won 8 of 20. It would be a shock to see her place well in this race. But there isn’t a lot of data to make a better-informed guess as to how she’ll hold up to the competition.
11. DUNBAR ROAD (15-1) – Another Chad Brown protégé, this five-year-old mare sired by Quality Road doesn’t seem to be on the same par with the elite competition in this race. But I do like how she gave Letruska a bit of a chase down in the stretch in last month’s Spinster where she came running and gained on the winner at the finish line. Still, Letruska beat her twice in the last two races. So, while I won’t pick this horse to win the Distaff, I can see her trying hard to finish well which she just may do.
FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE DISTAFF
Letruska has been the most impressive of all the Distaff contenders in 2021. She’s won five times in a row, the last three coming in at the 1 1/8 mile Distaff distance, and all on the lead. And while most were close finishes, she has managed to stave off the competition. So, I think the Distaff is her race to lose.
Where I worry for her in this race is the number of other horses who like to be forwardly placed and the speed at which she’ll get pushed. And she will be pushed… There will also be double the number of contenders Letruska is used to. The question is: How will she respond? Will the pace she sets collapse and others come in to pick up the pieces? Or will she continue to hold challengers at the finish line? What if she doesn’t get the lead? The last time that happened, she lost to Shedaresthedevil.
I am using Letruska’s win against the great Monomoy Girl in April’s Apple Blossom Handicap as a guide of how she managed to overcome adversity at the finish line and get the job done. I think it’s going to be a very similar situation in the Distaff. She’ll likely get the lead and hold it but challenged closely at the end.
It should be another close one and I see Malathaat, Shedaresthedevil, Royal Flag and Dunbar Road the ones to take on the challenge at the finish line. But in the end, I believe this race seal’s Letruska’s crown for 2021 Champion Older Mare or even Horse of the Year.
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