HORSE RACING – BREEDERS’ CUP 2021 – LONGINES CLASSIC PICKS

LONGINES CLASSIC

Purse – $6 million

Distance – 1 1/4 miles

Surface – Dirt

Age – 3+

WHEN:  SATURDAY, NOV 6, 2021 | 8:40pm EDT

Handicapping a race of this magnitude with the mega-talented horses we will have lined up tomorrow is obviously very different than picking from juveniles still figuring out the process.  

With three-years-old and up having several races under their belts, we have an actual record that we can analyze to determine how they’ve improved over time.  We also have input from their trainers as to how they are maturing.

So, rather than trying to speculate how older horses will perform like we do with the juveniles, we obviously have a clear record to help us figure out how they may do when brought together for such a race as this.

That being said, there are at least six elite horses out of the nine players in the field for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic whose careers have taken a similar path and whose stats are lining up well, similarly.

In other words, picking this year’s Classic winner comes down to splitting hairs, really.  But that’s the fun of handicapping races like this.  

And then there are the stories.

Will Hot Rod Charlie, who came in third at the 2021 Kentucky Derby to winner Medina Spirit and who ran second to the Brad Cox trained Essential Quality in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the 2021 Belmont Stakes finally get his premiere win?  And will he do it against Essential Quality and Medina Spirit tomorrow when the rivals meet once again?

Can Art Collector finally fulfill all the promise he showed early in his juvenile career?  He’s been on the upswing since he switched to trainer Bill Mott in August and is putting down similar wins/speeds as the other competitors.

How will Knicks Go fare tomorrow?  The second protégé of trainer Brad Cox was moved to his barn in the winter of 2020 and since then, the five-year-old horse has had five graded stakes wins, including the 2021 Pegasus World Cup and three other Grade 1 victories.   

And then there’s Bob Baffert’s Medina Spirit who won the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but then failed drug tests after the race.  The whole episode has embroiled Bob Baffert in legal fights since then but the Breeders’ Cup is allowing the California-based trainer to run his horses under strict conditions including 24-hour security and constant drug tests.  The horse has a lot to prove and if he wins this, it will shut up the critics of both himself, and Bob Baffert.

One of these horses will end up as Horse of the Year tomorrow and it will be fun watching them do it.

By post-position and morning-line odds:

1.  TRIPOLI (15-1) – This four-year old was sired by Kitten’s Joy, a leading turf stallion and so, he was rightly started out on turf.  But after six races, he was switched to dirt in March.  The change has paid off.  Tripoli has excelled on the surface including a win at the G1 Pacific Classic in August and three consecutive triple-digit Beyer speed figures.  Unfortunately, a fourth-place finish at the Awesome Again last month brings down his appeal to make a dent in this very talented field.  I understand he’ll have a jockey change to Irad Oritz Jr., but I’m not feeling confident he will be in the mix at the finish line.

2.  EXPRESS TRAIN (20-1) – Another four-year old Union Rags colt, it appears to me he may have peaked over the summer.  Despite his third-place finish behind Medina Spirit in the Awesome Again which does give him some merit, I’m not sure he’s up to facing off against the caliber of this field.  

3.  HOT ROD CHARLIE (4-1) – I’m really jazzed about this three-year old colt who is on the rise and is the fastest one in the field.  I also like that he can stalk the pace because on this Del Mar track which will be fast, he may have a nice chance to sit off the pace and pounce.  I hope he does for redemption, having lost twice to Medina Spirit and obviously having a highly contested rivalry with Essential Quality.

4.  ESSENTIAL QUALITY (3-1) – Looking at this three-year old’s progression, he has remained steady, unlike Charlie whose record indicates continued improvement.  However, trainer Brad Cox said recently that EQ has “developed physically” since his last race  in August and “he has definitely gotten sharper and more aggressive in his training just since the cool weather took over the last two or three weeks.”  Given that, his proven record at 1 1/4 miles, and stalking ability, there’s so much to like here.  I’ve seen at least a couple handicapping experts who think this horse (that won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2020 and became champion 2-year-old) will likely be named champion 3-year-old and win this race tomorrow.

5.  KNICKS GO (5-2) – The morning line favorite has never raced more than 1 1/8 miles and has no California experience, but Brad Cox does not seem to feel that will be a problem for this five-year-old whose breeding suggests he will get the distance.  Cox has also said his protégé’s forward style of running as a pacesetter on the fast Del Mar track will help him.  He has also explained that Knicks Go has galloped-out in his races in an “impressive” fashion.  That may be the case, but I have noticed that the horse has not faced this level of talent and/or speed on a regular basis.  I’m not saying it can’t be done, but he’ll be pushed by more accomplished, younger horses on Saturday.

6.  ART COLLECTOR (8-1) – Earlier in his career, there was a lot of buzz about this four-year-old Bernardini colt.  He was a leading contender for the 2020 Kentucky Derby but had to bow out due to injury.  And then he finished an inauspicious fourth at the Preakness Stakes.  A couple of other non-stellar performances later and the winter off, he was transferred to the barn of Bill Mott.  It didn’t take long before Art Collector had new life breathed into his career by the Hall of Fame trainer.  Three wins in a row along with improvement in triple digit speed figures makes this one a legitimate contender for the Classic.  True he hasn’t ever run 1 1/4 miles, but he will be ridden by the great Mike Smith who can pull greatness out of any horse.

7.  STILLETO BOY (30-1) – Clearly out of his element here, this three-year old gelding has not shown he has the chops to compete and win at this level.  He does have a second place behind Medina Spirit in the Awesome Again, but it is not likely he’ll be able to make a real dent in the Classic.  Then there’s the odd name…

8.  MEDINA SPIRIT (4-1) – This is a lovely, consistent Bob Baffert trained horse who works very hard but may have had his biggest win in the Kentucky Derby.  I’m not sure he has the speed to win this one and by looking at the other top competitors’ records, they do seem one step ahead of Medina.  Still, if by some weird chance of fate, the three-year old could pull out the win here, it would be the talk of the horse racing industry especially given the drugging controversy the horse is still currently embroiled in.

9.  MAX PLAYER (8-1) – To add to the talent pool (and confusion as to who will win) we have this four-year-old trainee of Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen.  A son of Union Rags, the colt has raced in back-to-back 1 1/4-mile graded races and won them both.  The wins seem to have come as a result of a change in running style for the horse.  Instead of using him as a deep closer, Asmussen has had Max close to the front in his last two winning races.  And being in the nine-post position, this should add to more confidence for Asmussen.  For me, I like that this horse has a versatile running style, is proven at this distance and his speed has been impressive his last two races.

FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE CLASSIC

Looking at the elite field of contenders we have here, it occurs to me that we have several speedy horses who like to sit at or near the lead.  On this fast Del Mar track, it begs the question – will the pace meltdown and who will pick up the pieces?  I’m thinking that the versatile Essential Quality will be the one to win followed by Hot Rod Charlie. But I am rooting for to finally get his signature win.  I’m also feeling good that Art Collector will be running late along with Max Player, the wild card in the bunch coming from the outside.  

I also would like to see Medina Spirit finish well to prove he can be a winning horse at this level without drugs.  I can’t see Baffert putting himself in this spot with all the controversy swirling around on the world stage without having confidence in his colt.  So, I’m guessing he’ll have Medina stay off the hot pace and let him use his hardworking spirit to do well.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at https://theladylovessports.com/contact.