BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC 2020 – PICKS

This certainly has been a year to remember (or forget).  But, at least one thing remains steady during this strange stretch in time: live televised international sports. 

If you’re like me, you’ve been relishing the return of most major sports this summer and fall which has helped provide a “safe” place to park our minds while we move forward and away from this son-of-a b– year.

Luckily for all of us, the sports Gods continue to be very fruitful.  This weekend, the prestigious Breeders’ Cup World Championships (“BC”) return to the calendar on Friday and Saturday, November 6 & 7, 2020.  

As a refresher, the BC is the annual year-end championship series of fourteen (14) Grade 1 thoroughbred races showcasing the best horses in the world on both turf and dirt.  

When the series began in the 1980s, it was a one-day, seven-race event.  In 2007, it expanded to two days and added seven more races.  The venue has always been held in the United States; however, the racetrack is different every year.  This year’s BC is being held at Keeneland in Lexington Kentucky for only the second time in the championship’s history.  

The entire event is capped off with what is considered the premiere horse race of the year in America beyond the Triple Crown Series: Saturday’s $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, for 3 year olds and older at a distance of 1 and 1/4 miles on dirt.  

I’m happy to report that this year’s Classic is one of the most competitive and elite fields we’ve seen in a while.  While handicapping this race, I plotted out scenarios for at least five different horses that could win on Saturday.  The field is that deep.   

Of the ten contenders entered in the Classic, we will see the 2020 Belmont Stakes winner (Tiz the Law), the 2020 Kentucky Derby winner and 2020 Preakness runner-up (Authentic), as well as last year’s disqualified winner of the Kentucky Derby (Maximum Security).  We will also see some exciting four year olds race at their peak (Improbable, By My Standards) and the best older horse in North America, the seven-year-old, Tom’s d’Etat.  

Rounding out the field will be Tacitus, the ever consistent Tapit colt who finished third in the 2019 Kentucky Derby and second in the 2019 Belmont Stakes and, hard working long shots Title Ready, Higher Power and Global Campaign.

Of course, the Classic wouldn’t be classic without a contender trained by the legendary Bob Baffert. He has the most Classic wins by a trainer in history (three). And, this go around, he has a trio of talented horses in the field (Authentic, Improbable and Maximum Security.)  

PICKS

So, do I think one of Baffert’s horses will be draped in the beautiful yellow and purple garland this year?  

This is such an incredibly hard race to predict, but the key will be the break from the gate.  If one of our contenders gets off badly, it may mean the difference in winning.  With such stiff competition, it’s imperative that a horse doesn’t get frustrated, scared and/or use up precious energy to get back in the competition.  

With that said, I’ve been very high on Tiz the Law who came to Keeneland early.  But, when he drew an inside post for the Classic (Two), that immediately put up a red flag for me.  This horse has thrived from the outside in his most recent wins.  However, there is hope.  When he won the Holy Bull in February, he broke from the Number Three post very well and made his way to the outside for the win.  He will need to do that on Saturday to get a good spot behind the pace setters, likely Global Campaign and Authentic.  If not, he could get jammed up in the pack and that could cost him the race.  But, he will have the same jockey on Saturday as the Holy Bull (Manny Franco), so we’ll see how Franco handles this one.  Personally, I am rooting for this horse who some experts think has peaked already.  This will be a big test for him.

Many handicappers seem to be drawn to an older horse winning this race like Tom’s d’Etat, the seven-year old who has won at Keeneland before.  And, the more I think about the setup of the Classic, the more I like him.  This veteran horse has had a great 2020, having won the Oaklawn Mile and G2 Stephen Foster and finishing third after a bad stumble out of the gate at the G1 Whitney in September.  And, while he’s never gone 1 & 1/4 miles before, his breeding suggests the distance won’t be a problem for him.  Also, with Improbable and the other speed horses being on the outside, combined with his racing style, I like how things are lining up for this horse. Another part of the story for Tom’s d’Etat is the Classic will likely be his swan song.  Having struggled early in his career with various ailments and injuries, he has only gotten better with age.  It would be a nice story for him to finish on a really high note.   

Improbable, the four-year old Baffert trainee is the morning line favorite of this race and Baffert has said he deserves to be.  This horse has had three consecutive Grade 1 wins coming into this race and will be ridden in the Classic by last year’s winning jockey on Vino Rosso (Irad Ortiz, Jr.).   He also has the best speed figures amongst the competition, and has matured since last year.  But, I do worry about the break for this horse.  Will he act up?  How will affect Authentic next to him?  These are all tough considerations to think about.  Still, we can’t deny this colt has a big chance to prevail on Saturday. Baffert doesn’t refer to him as “little Justify” for nothing.

Speaking of Authentic, he’s my pick for the win (with hesitation.)  IF he can hold the lead and not be distracted by Improbable next to him (who has been known to act up in the gate), I believe Authentic will be game to take the Classic win. I doubted him in the Kentucky Derby and said I wouldn’t do that again if he won.  Well, he got the distance and outran Tiz the Law in that race.  And, even though he got outrun by my girl Swiss Skydiver in the Preakness, I still believe Authentic will be right there at the finish line in the Classic.  

As for Maximum Security, I’m not sure what to make of him.  While I’ve always loved his talent and competitive nature and think he got screwed out of winning last year’s Kentucky Derby, the reasons of which I outlined in depth before, since he transitioned to Bob Baffert earlier this year, he doesn’t seem to be the same horse as he was with trainer Jason Servis who was indicted on federal charges of administering PEDs to horses in March.   True, Maximum Security has won 3-4 in 2020 including the San Diego Handicap and Pacific Classic.  But, he also lost soundly to Improbable in September at the Awesome Again Stakes, which was a real head-scratcher for me.  Deep down, I know Maximum Security is capable of winning the Classic.  And, in doing so, it would help the owners get his legacy back after everything he/they have gone through.  But, I don’t know who the real horse is right now enough to pick him as the winner.

To recap, my top five finishers in order:

AUTHENTIC

IMPROBABLE

TOM’S D’ETAT

TIZ THE LAW

MAXIMUM SECURITY

POST TIME of the Breeders’ Cup “Longine” Classic is Saturday, November 7, 2020 at approximately 5:15pm ET on NBC.  

 

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